Zürich vs Thun Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Letzigrund Sat, 21 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super League
Zürich ZUR
2 Winner 1
Thun THU
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Damienus Reverson - 15'
Ivan Cavaleiro - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Leonardo Bertone - 38'

CONTEXT

The match has finished, with Zürich securing a 1-0 victory over Thun. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Zürich decisively defied their underdog status. The betting markets originally favored Thun with a 60.5% implied win probability, leaving Zürich with a mere 16.9% chance of taking the victory and a 22.6% likelihood of a draw. Ultimately, the outcome was entirely unaligned with these pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, underlying metrics painted a different picture from the scoreline. Thun controlled the tempo with 57% possession compared to Zürich's 43%, generating

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zürich showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Zürich D. Hediger
D. Hediger
VS
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 58 L
Servette Rank: 59 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 L
Young Boys Rank: 63 L
Grasshopper Rank: 50 W
Luzern Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grasshopper Rank: 51 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
St. Gallen Rank: 62 D
Luzern Rank: 59 W
Winterthur Rank: 46 W
Sion Rank: 59 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 13 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zürich
16.9%
Draw
22.6%
Away Thun
60.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.59
56.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zürich
Thun
Power Score
52.59
56.84
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
689
297

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zürich — Opponent-weighted form score
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zürich Thun

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zürich

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zürich ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.05
42.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.54
21.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zürich -2.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Thun +2.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zürich
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zürich
vs
Thun
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zürich Thun
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zürich Thun
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Zürich
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zürich ZUR Home
49 matches
Thun THU Away
Match Record
26
Wins
10
13
Draws
13
10
Losses
26
Goals
94
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
94
+29
Goal Difference
-29
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Huber
Switzerland
1 S. Huber
D. Vujevic
Substitution
35 D. Vujevic
A. Hack
Germany
42 A. Hack
I. Sauter
Switzerland
27 I. Sauter
C. Tsawa
Switzerland
6 C. Tsawa
N. Palacio
Colombia
15 N. Palacio
V. Berisha
Kosovo
23 V. Berisha
S. Walker
Substitution
Switzerland
44 S. Walker
P. Keny
Senegal
19 (C) P. Keny
D. Reverson
Substitution
Netherlands
29 D. Reverson
I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
Substitution
Angola
8 I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
N. Steffen
Switzerland
24 N. Steffen
M. Heule
Switzerland
27 M. Heule
J. Bamert
Switzerland
19 J. Bamert
G. Montolio Lafuente
Spain
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
F. Fehr
Substitution
Switzerland
47 F. Fehr
F. Meichtry
Substitution
77 F. Meichtry
M. Käit
Substitution
Estonia
14 M. Käit
L. Bertone
Switzerland
6 (C) L. Bertone
N. Reichmuth
Substitution
Switzerland
70 N. Reichmuth
E. Rastoder
Switzerland
74 E. Rastoder
B. Labeau Melchior
Substitution
Martinique
96 B. Labeau Melchior

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Letzigrund
Capacity
26104
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Linda Schmid
Lukas Fähndrich
Guillaume Maire
Hüseyin Sanli

Statistics

Possession
ZUR
43%
THU
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 7
21 Dangerous attacks 65
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 9
19 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Successful Dribbles 12
18 Throwins 28
13 Goal Kicks 5
2 Assists 1
5 Goal Attempts 19
0 Hit Woodwork 1
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
87 Ball Safe 74
9 Dribble Attempts 26
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
69 Attacks 93

Possession

57 Successful Passes Percentage 70
157 Successful Passes 240
94 Long Passes 68
6 Key Passes 17
34 Successful Long Passes 21
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
274 Passes 342

Defensive

7 Saves 3
25 Tackles 22
7 Interceptions 9

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 28
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

15 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Silas Huber
Silas Huber Goalkeeper
8
27
Ilan Sauter
Ilan Sauter Defender
7.28
35
David Vujevic
David Vujevic Defender
7.14
48
Daniel Ihendu
Daniel Ihendu
Defender73'
6.67
42
Alexander Hack
Alexander Hack Defender
7.48
6
Cheveyo Tsawa
Cheveyo Tsawa Midfielder
6.29
15
Nelson Palacio
Nelson Palacio Midfielder
6.2
23
Valon Berisha
Valon Berisha Midfielder
7.64
44
Sebastian Walker
Sebastian Walker Midfielder
6.75
3
Livano Comenencia
Livano Comenencia
Defender80'
6.48
8
Ivan Cavaleiro
Ivan Cavaleiro Attacker
7.24
18
Mohamed Bangoura
Mohamed Bangoura
Midfielder87'
19
Philippe Paulin Keny
Philippe Paulin Keny (C) Attacker
6.6
29
Damienus Reverson
Damienus Reverson Attacker
7.31
9
Juan José Perea
Juan José Perea
Attacker73'
6.66
Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.69
4
Genís Montolio
Genís Montolio Defender
6.42
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
7.29
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
7.25
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
6.03
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth
Midfielder88'
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone (C) Midfielder
7.61
14
Mattias Käit
Mattias Käit Midfielder
6.81
37
Lucien Dähler
Lucien Dähler
Defender88'
70
Nils Reichmuth
Nils Reichmuth Midfielder
6.77
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri
Midfielder75'
6.48
77
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.6
9
Furkan Dursun
Furkan Dursun
Attacker79'
6.49
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
6.96
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau Attacker
6.65
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi
Attacker75'
6.24

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Juan José Perea
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+8'
88'
Event
Lucien Dähler → Mattias Käit
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Justin Roth → Fabio Fehr
9th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Bangoura → Ivan Cavaleiro
7th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Christopher Ibayi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Livano Comenencia → Sebastian Walker
6th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Furkan Dursun → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
5th Substitution
Event
Ivan Cavaleiro
Header / 3rd Goal
77'
75'
Event
Christopher Ibayi → Brighton Labeau
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Kastriot Imeri → Nils Reichmuth
4th Substitution
Event
Juan José Perea → Damienus Reverson
2nd Substitution
73'
Event
Daniel Ihendu → David Vujevic
1st Substitution
73'
Event
Cheveyo Tsawa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
66'
Event
Brighton Labeau
Penalty cancelled
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Leonardo Bertone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
David Vujevic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Damienus Reverson
Header / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zürich exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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