Zulte-Waregem vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Elindus Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
2 – 2
Cercle Brugge CBR
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 1 Relegation Round
Laurent Lemoine - 59'
Malick Mbaye - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Edan Diop - 28'
Oumar Diakité - 71' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Zulte-Waregem and Cercle Brugge has finished, concluding with a 2-2 draw. Cercle Brugge initially held a 1-0 advantage at halftime, but the hosts rallied in the second half to secure a share of the points. Pre-match market expectations were exceptionally close, giving Zulte-Waregem a 36.7% chance of victory and Cercle Brugge a 36.3% probability, with a draw set at just 27%. Because Cercle Brugge were considered the stronger overall team, failing to secure a victory resulted in a significant deviation from expectations for the visitors. Ultimately, the tie meant the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, Zulte-Waregem controlled the overall tempo with 54% possession compared to the visitors' 46%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to assess whether the scoreline matched the underlying chances, the match's efficiency shift remained entirely in line with the run of play. Furthermore, the contest stayed disciplined; neither side received a red card, ensuring both teams finished with eleven men and no disciplinary events altered the balance of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cercle Brugge showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Visser
L. Visser
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
K. Van Damme
K. Van Damme
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
T. Nijssen
T. Nijssen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Wyns
R. Wyns
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Zulte-Waregem S. Colpaert
S. Colpaert
VS
Cercle Brugge L. Friis
L. Friis
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 W
Gent Rank: 70 L
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
La Louvière Rank: 66 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Dender Rank: 61 D
Gent Rank: 72 W
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 8 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zulte-Waregem
36.68%
Draw
27.02%
Away Cercle Brugge
36.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.18
67.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zulte-Waregem
Cercle Brugge
Power Score
55.18
67.24
League Position
13
15
Global Rank
347
266

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zulte-Waregem Cercle Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zulte-Waregem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.06
25.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.65
18.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zulte-Waregem -0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Cercle Brugge +0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zulte-Waregem
Cercle Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zulte-Waregem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zulte-Waregem Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zulte-Waregem Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zulte-Waregem
Cercle Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zulte-Waregem
vs
Cercle Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zulte-Waregem Cercle Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zulte-Waregem 0.13
Cercle Brugge 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zulte-Waregem Cercle Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zulte-Waregem 0.06
Cercle Brugge 0.04
Zulte-Waregem
Cercle Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zulte-Waregem ZUL Home
34 matches
Cercle Brugge CBR Away
Match Record
14
Wins
12
8
Draws
8
12
Losses
14
Goals
64
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
64
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
L. Lemoine
Belgium
4 L. Lemoine
J. Kiilerich
Substitution
Denmark
5 J. Kiilerich
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
B. Nyssen
Substitution
Belgium
19 B. Nyssen
D. Asare
Substitution
Belgium
40 D. Asare
E. Lofolomo
Germany
6 E. Lofolomo
M. Ake
France
39 M. Ake
J. Erenbjerg
Denmark
10 J. Erenbjerg
A. Ementa
Substitution
Denmark
18 A. Ementa
J. Amankwaah Opoku
22 J. Amankwaah Opoku
W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
Brazil
1 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
V. Konaté
Ivory Coast
12 V. Konaté
G. Kondo
France
24 G. Kondo
E. Kakou
Substitution
5 E. Kakou
F. Jacinto Nazinho
Portugal
20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
P. Gerkens
Substitution
Belgium
18 P. Gerkens
H. Van der Bruggen
Belgium
28 H. Van der Bruggen
G. Magnée
Belgium
15 G. Magnée
E. Diop
Substitution
France
37 E. Diop
L. Agyekum
Substitution
Ghana
6 L. Agyekum
O. Diakité
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 O. Diakité

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Elindus Arena
Capacity
12414
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lawrence Visser
Kevin Van Damme
Thibaud Nijssen
Ruben Wyns

Statistics

Possession
ZUL
53%
CBR
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Shots 4
55 Dangerous attacks 36
54 Possession 46
8 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

29 Throwins 26
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 3
15 Dribble Attempts 6
3 Goal Attempts 5
76 Ball Safe 107

Attacking

103 Attacks 83

Possession

20 Long Passes 20
399 Passes 343
286 Successful Passes 238
3 Key Passes 6
72 Successful Passes Percentage 69

Defensive

14 Interceptions 14
15 Tackles 14
2 Saves 0

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine Defender
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich Defender
30
Malick Mbaye
Malick Mbaye
Attacker76'
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
6
Enrique Lofolomo
Enrique Lofolomo Midfielder
19
Benoit Nyssen
Benoit Nyssen Midfielder
12
Wilguens Paugain
Wilguens Paugain
Defender58'
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake Midfielder
40
Dirk Asare
Dirk Asare Midfielder
55
Yannick Cappelle
Yannick Cappelle
Defender58'
10
Jeppe Erenbjerg
Jeppe Erenbjerg Attacker
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa Attacker
45
Benoit De Jaegere
Benoit De Jaegere
Defender86'
22
Joseph Okopu
Joseph Okopu Attacker
Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

1
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
5
Emmanuel Kakou
Emmanuel Kakou Defender
2
Ibrahim Diakité
Ibrahim Diakité
Defender65'
12
Valy Konaté
Valy Konaté Defender
24
Geoffrey Kondo
Geoffrey Kondo Defender
15
Gary Magnée
Gary Magnée Midfielder
18
Pieter Gerkens
Pieter Gerkens Midfielder
19
Ibrahima Diaby
Ibrahima Diaby
Midfielder65'
20
Nazinho
Nazinho Midfielder
28
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
Hannes Van Der Bruggen Midfielder
6
Lawrence Agyekum
Lawrence Agyekum Attacker
13
Dante Vanzeir
Dante Vanzeir
Attacker57'
10
Oumar Diakité
Oumar Diakité Attacker
9
Steve Ngoura
Steve Ngoura
Attacker83'
37
Edan Diop
Edan Diop Attacker
17
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Attacker83'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Nazinho
4th Yellowcard
Event
Benoit De Jaegere → Anosike Ementa
9th Substitution
86'
83'
Event
Var
83'
Event
Steve Ngoura → Oumar Diakité
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Oluwaseun Adewumi → Edan Diop
7th Substitution
Event
Malick Mbaye
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
Malick Mbaye → Jakob Kiilerich
6th Substitution
76'
71'
Event
Oumar Diakité
Penalty / 1st Penalty
65'
Event
Ibrahima Diaby → Pieter Gerkens
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Ibrahim Diakité → Emmanuel Kakou
5th Substitution
Event
Laurent Lemoine
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Wilguens Paugain → Benoit Nyssen
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Yannick Cappelle → Dirk Asare
2nd Substitution
58'
57'
Event
Dante Vanzeir → Lawrence Agyekum
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Edan Diop
3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Edan Diop
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Marley Ake
2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Enrique Lofolomo
1st Yellowcard
16'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Cercle Brugge exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews