Tondela vs Nacional Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal

Estádio João Cardoso Sun, 26 Apr - 12:00 AM

Liga Portugal

Tondela TND

Versus

Nacional Nacional

KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 12:00 AM

Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

At Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela hosts Nacional in a pivotal Liga Portugal regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side, languishing in 17th place, faces 14th-placed Nacional, holding a clear power score edge at 18.88 to 16.96, translating to a 1.9-point advantage that marks Tondela as the stronger outfit. Recent form tilts slightly toward the visitors with a 14.17 score against Tondela's 13.17, yet no last outings provide direct context. League positions underscore the stakes, as both battle relegation pressures. Set piece evaluations draw from low-confidence proxies without xG data, limiting insights into dead-ball threats. Efficiency and transition dynamics remain unexplored due to data gaps, setting up a match where raw power and home support could tip the scales.

TL;DR

Structural: Tondela enjoys a 1.9-point power advantage, positioning them as the stronger team overall.
Form: Nacional leads slightly in form with a 14.17 score compared to Tondela's 13.17.
Squad: No specific squad updates or compositions detailed for either side.
Efficiency: Efficiency metrics absent for this particular fixture.
Transition: Transition play data unavailable in current assessments.
Set pieces: Proxy-based set piece stats carry low confidence for both Tondela and Nacional.
xVariable: xG data unavailable as the add-on remains disabled.
Market: Tondela 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Nacional 0% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

G. Feio

VS

T. Carvalho Margarido

0.82

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.82

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

3

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 1 - 5

5

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Tondela

0%

Draw

0%

Nacional

0%

Team Power Ranking

18.88

16.96

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Tondela

Nacional

Power Score

18.88

16.96

League Position

17

14

Global Rank

-

-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs

Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score

Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tondela Nacional

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tondela TND Home

9 matches

Nacional Nacional Away

Match Record

3

Wins

5

1

Draws

1

5

Losses

3

Goals

12

Goals Scored

16

16

Goals Conceded

12

-4

Goal Difference

+4

Expected Goals

0

xG

0

0

xGA

0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T02:04:51+00:00

General Information

Date & Time

Apr 26, 2026, 12:00 AM

Competition

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium

Estádio João Cardoso

Capacity

30127

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Manager ▼

G. Feio Coach

Squad ▼

30

Lucas Cañizars Conchello Goalkeeper

1

Carlos Joel Castro de Sousa Goalkeeper

31

Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes Goalkeeper

5

João Ricardo Silva Afonso Defender

2

Roberto de Jesus Machado Defender

44

João Pedro Eira Antunes da Silva Defender

48

Tiago Miguel Silva Manso Defender

27

Rodrigo Fernandes Conceição Defender

21

Remi Vita Defender

4

Christian Marques Defender

60

Emmanuel Maviram Defender

20

Brayan Medina Defender

8

Hélder Luís Lopes Vieira Tavares Midfielder

97

Cícero Clebson Alves Santana Midfielder

15

Sphephelo Sithole Midfielder

10

Joseph Hodge Midfielder

14

Xabier Huarte Armendariz Midfielder

79

Hugo Félix Sequeira Midfielder

32

Juan Sebastian Rodríguez López Midfielder

16

Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes Attacker

29

Theoson Jordan Siebatcheu Attacker

23

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka Attacker

7

Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos Attacker

26

Arjen van der Heide Attacker

90

Makan Aiko Attacker

70

Moudja Sie Ouattara Attacker

Manager ▼

T. Carvalho Margarido Coach

Squad ▼

37

Lucas Oliveira de França Goalkeeper

12

Cesar Augusto de Oliveira Prado Goalkeeper

1

Kaique Pereira Azarias Goalkeeper

50

Kevyn Vinícius Medeiros de Freitas Goalkeeper

24

Lenny Vallier Defender

2

João Miguel Coimbra Aurélio Defender

14

Ivanildo Jorge Mendes Fernandes Defender

5

José Manuel Mendes Gomes Defender

34

Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos Defender

4

Ulisses Wilson Jeronymo Rocha Defender

38

José Vitor Lima Cardoso Defender

16

Alan Herminio Núñez Duarte Defender

33

Francisco Adriano Baptista Gonçalves Defender

18

André Alexandre Carreira Sousa Midfielder

20

João Tiago Serrão Garcês Midfielder

22

Filipe Miguel Barros Soares Midfielder

8

Miguel Baeza Pérez Midfielder

28

Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira Midfielder

15

Chiheb Abidi Midfielder

6

Matheus dos Santos Dias Midfielder

10

Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior Midfielder

26

Joel Filipe Organista da Silva Midfielder

88

Deivison Souza Brito Midfielder

19

Lucas Eduardo Santos João Attacker

7

Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo Attacker

9

Jesús Andrés Ramírez Díaz Attacker

11

Paulo Henrique Pereira da Silva Attacker

27

Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza Attacker

30

Martim Gustavo Silva Watts Rodrigues Attacker

99

Pablo Ruan Messias Cardozo Attacker

CONCLUSION

Tondela's power superiority and home turf at Estádio João Cardoso provide a solid foundation against Nacional's marginal form edge. Positioned 17th versus 14th, this Liga Portugal clash demands precision amid data voids on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces. Proxies hint at balanced dead-ball vulnerabilities, but Tondela's 1.9-point lead suggests control. Visitors must capitalize on their 14.17 form to disrupt, yet structural gaps favor the hosts. A gritty battle looms, with Tondela poised to exploit advantages for vital points in the relegation scrap.