Young Boys vs Lugano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Wankdorf (Bern) Sun, 22 Mar - 3:30 PM
Super League
Young Boys YBO
1 – 1
Lugano Lugano
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 3:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Alvyn Sanches - 5'
Goal
|
Goal
Anto Grgic - 65' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Young Boys and Lugano has finished, with Lugano taking home a 0-1 full-time victory. Curiously, the match data indicated a 1-0 advantage for Young Boys at halftime, before the game ultimately concluded with Lugano securing the singular full-time away goal. This result marked a significant deviation by Lugano from pre-match expectations. Young Boys entered

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Young Boys G. Seoane
G. Seoane
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grasshopper Rank: 50 D
Zürich Rank: 53 W
Thun Rank: 66 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 L
Lugano Rank: 63 L
Grasshopper Rank: 50 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: 64 D
Luzern Rank: 56 L
Sion Rank: 59 W
Grasshopper Rank: 50 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Basel Rank: 65 D
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 9 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Young Boys
51.33%
Draw
24.17%
Away Lugano
24.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.03
63.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Young Boys
Lugano
Power Score
63.03
63.16
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
387
382

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Young Boys — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Young Boys Lugano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Young Boys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Young Boys ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.64
37.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.55
37.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Young Boys +0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Lugano -0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Young Boys
Lugano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Young Boys
vs
Lugano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Young Boys Lugano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Young Boys Lugano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Young Boys
Lugano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Young Boys YBO Home
42 matches
Lugano Lugano Away
Match Record
24
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
24
Goals
82
Goals Scored
40
40
Goals Conceded
82
+42
Goal Difference
-42
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
M. Keller
Switzerland
1 M. Keller
Y. Valery
Substitution
Tunisia
22 Y. Valery
G. Wüthrich
Switzerland
5 G. Wüthrich
S. Lauper
Switzerland
30 S. Lauper
L. Benito
Switzerland
23 (C) L. Benito
A. Gigovic
Substitution
Sweden
37 A. Gigovic
E. Fernandes
Switzerland
6 E. Fernandes
D. Males
Substitution
Switzerland
39 D. Males
A. Antonio Sanches
Switzerland
10 A. Antonio Sanches
A. Virginius
Substitution
France
7 A. Virginius
C. Bedia
Substitution
Ivory Coast
29 C. Bedia
D. von Ballmoos
Switzerland
16 D. von Ballmoos
H. Delcroix
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
L. Mai
Germany
17 L. Mai
A. Papadopoulos
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
A. Grgic
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
M. Costa Marques
Substitution
Portugal
26 M. Costa Marques
U. Bislimi
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Tunisia
29 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
E. Pihlström
Substitution
24 E. Pihlström
R. Steffen
Substitution
Switzerland
11 (C) R. Steffen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Wankdorf (Bern)
Capacity
32000
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ilco Jancevski
Benjamin Zürcher
Logan Berchier
Fedayi San

Statistics

Possession
YBO
54%
Lugano
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
79 Dangerous attacks 53
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 10
18 Throwins 10
10 Successful Dribbles 7
77 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
13 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 2
13 Goal Attempts 10
88 Ball Safe 99
5 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

119 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 82
56 Long Passes 45
12 Key Passes 13
29 Successful Long Passes 20
508 Passes 445
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
442 Successful Passes 367

Defensive

7 Tackles 13
13 Interceptions 14
3 Saves 7

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Fedayi San

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Keller
Marvin Keller Goalkeeper
6.77
5
Gregory Wüthrich
Gregory Wüthrich Defender
7
22
Yan Valery
Yan Valery Defender
6.8
17
Saidy Janko
Saidy Janko
Defender73'
6.57
23
Loris Benito
Loris Benito (C) Defender
6.83
30
Sandro Lauper
Sandro Lauper Defender
6.85
6
Edimilson Fernandes
Edimilson Fernandes Midfielder
7.11
7
Alan Virginius
Alan Virginius Midfielder
7.61
11
Ebrima Colley
Ebrima Colley
Attacker73'
6.65
10
Alvyn Sanches
Alvyn Sanches Midfielder
7.93
37
Armin Gigovic
Armin Gigovic Midfielder
6.92
13
Dominik Pech
Dominik Pech
Midfielder86'
6.5
39
Darian Males
Darian Males Midfielder
6.66
16
Christian Fassnacht
Christian Fassnacht
Midfielder65'
6.47
29
Chris Bedia
Chris Bedia Attacker
7.13
99
Samuel Essende
Samuel Essende
Attacker65'
6.69
Referee : Fedayi San

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
7.63
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
7.07
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
6.19
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
7.33
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
7.05
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
6.97
2
Zachary Brault-Guillard
Zachary Brault-Guillard
Defender89'
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
8.53
26
Martim Marques
Martim Marques Midfielder
6.59
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias
Attacker60'
6.57
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Midfielder
6.93
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen (C) Attacker
7.11
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker84'
6.4
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström Attacker
6.38
18
Hicham Mahou
Hicham Mahou
Midfielder60'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Zachary Brault-Guillard → Yanis Cimignani
9th Substitution
Event
Dominik Pech → Armin Gigovic
8th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Mattia Bottani → Renato Steffen
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Anto Grgic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Sandro Lauper
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
81'
Event
David von Ballmoos
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ebrima Colley → Alan Virginius
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Saidy Janko → Yan Valery
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Christian Fassnacht → Darian Males
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Samuel Essende → Chris Bedia
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Anto Grgic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
60'
Event
Georgios Koutsias → Martim Marques
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Hicham Mahou → Elias Pihlström
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Antonios Papadopoulos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Alvyn Sanches
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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