Wisła Płock vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego Tue, 10 Mar - 12:07 AM
Ekstraklasa
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
0 Winner 3
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 12:07 AM
|
Goal
Dawid Kocyla - 50'
Vladislavs Gutkovskis - 62'
Nazariy Rusyn - 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Wisła Płock and Arka Gdynia has finished with a full-time score of 0-3 in favor of the visitors. Following a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, Arka Gdynia pulled away in the second period to secure a comprehensive victory. This final outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Wisła Płock entered the contest as the stronger team and the clear pre-market favorites with a 47.2% implied probability of winning. In contrast, an Arka Gdynia victory carried only a 23.7% pre-match probability, with a draw sitting at 29.1%. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market, as the visitors managed to engineer a major upset. Despite the lopsided final scoreline, the general flow of play was perfectly balanced, with both sides sharing exactly 50% possession. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable, making it impossible to determine if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chances created. Furthermore, the match featured no red cards to abruptly alter the game's dynamic. Ultimately, the efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics, highlighting Arka Gdynia's clinical execution after the halftime break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arka Gdynia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Podbielski
P. Podbielski
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.26
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.84
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.26
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.84
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Jenda
M. Jenda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.26
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.84
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.26
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.84
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Szwarga
D. Szwarga
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: D
Katowice Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Motor Lublin Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 8 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wisła Płock
47.3%
Draw
29.14%
Away Arka Gdynia
23.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Wisła Płock
+0.07%
Draw
+0.05%
Arka Gdynia
-0.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.12
39.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wisła Płock
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
43.12
39.24
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wisła Płock Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wisła Płock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.00
34.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.20
33.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wisła Płock -0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia +0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wisła Płock
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wisła Płock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wisła Płock Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wisła Płock Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wisła Płock
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Home
1 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:07:45+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 12:07 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego
Capacity
10978
Attendance
7648
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
P. Podbielski
Łukasz Kuźma
Mateusz Jenda
Dawid Igor Golis

Statistics

Possession
Wisła Płock
50%
Arka Gdynia
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 6
8 Shots 11
50 Dangerous attacks 42
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Throwins 14
7 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 11
13 Dribble Attempts 16
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
9 Goal Attempts 12
78 Ball Safe 83
0 Injuries 1
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

59 Long Passes 47
0 Key Passes 1
78 Successful Passes Percentage 80
25 Successful Long Passes 18
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
322 Successful Passes 332
411 Passes 415

Defensive

15 Tackles 10
5 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 1

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fabian Hiszpanski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
86'
Event
Dominick Zator → Serafin Szota
10th Substitution
86'
Event
João Oliveira → Sebastian Kerk
9th Substitution
Event
Fabian Hiszpanski → Zan Rogelj
8th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn
Header / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Serafin Szota
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Matchoi Djaló → Dani Pacheco
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Marc Navarro → Dawid Kocyla
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski → Alassane Sidibe
4th Substitution
Event
Dominik Kun → Kyriakos Savvidis
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Deni Jurić → Tomás Franco Tavares
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Quentin Lecoeuche → Kevin Custovic
3rd Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
Event
Dawid Kocyla
Header / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Wiktor Nowak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arka Gdynia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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