Winterthur vs Basel Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Schützenwiese Sun, 22 Mar - 1:00 PM
Super League
Winterthur Winterthur
0 Winner 2
Basel BAS
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Ibrahim Salah - 15'
Bénie Traoré - 71'
|
Second yellow card Finn van Breemen 84'

CONTEXT

The match between Winterthur and Basel has finished, with Basel securing a 1-0 away victory after taking a one-goal lead into halftime. Pre-match expectations clearly favored Basel, giving them a 54.9% chance of winning compared to Winterthur's 22% and a 23.2% probability of a draw. The final outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match market, though Basel recorded a significant deviation level of 45.1%. Despite taking all three points, Basel was heavily out-created on the pitch. Winterthur amassed a massive 3.12 expected goals (xG) compared to Basel's 0.87 xG. Because of this 2.25 xG differential, the final scoreline was not consistent with the match's underlying chances. Basel held the majority of possession with 56% to Winterthur's 44%, while the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with expectations. The dynamics of the game were heavily impacted by disciplinary issues. Basel went down to ten men after receiving a red card, forcing defensive second-half adjustments and creating a clear red card distortion in the match data. Even with the severe numerical disadvantage, Basel survived Winterthur's relentless attacking pressure to maintain their clean sheet and hold onto a narrow win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Basel showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Winterthur P. Rahmen
P. Rahmen
VS
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
0.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Luzern Rank: 58 W
Sion Rank: 58 D
Servette Rank: 59 D
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Thun Rank: 66 L
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: 53 W
Thun Rank: 66 L
Zürich Rank: 53 W
Sion Rank: 59 D
Servette Rank: 60 D
Luzern Rank: 59 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Winterthur
22%
Draw
23.16%
Away Basel
54.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.17
64.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Winterthur
Basel
Power Score
46.17
64.57
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
872
340

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Winterthur — Opponent-weighted form score
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Winterthur Basel

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Winterthur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.18
12.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.59
43.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Winterthur +2.89 Efficiency Index
vs
Basel -2.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Basel
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Winterthur
vs
Basel
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Winterthur Basel
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Winterthur Basel
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Winterthur
Basel
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Winterthur Winterthur Home
12 matches
Basel BAS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
10
2
Draws
2
10
Losses
0
Goals
9
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
9
-28
Goal Difference
+28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Kapino
Greece
1 S. Kapino
L. Lüthi
Switzerland
21 L. Lüthi
L. Mühl
Substitution
Germany
5 L. Mühl
M. Kryeziu
Substitution
Kosovo
31 M. Kryeziu
L. Zuffi
Substitution
Switzerland
7 (C) L. Zuffi
B. Dansoko
Guinea
11 B. Dansoko
T. Golliard
Switzerland
8 T. Golliard
R. Schneider
Switzerland
10 R. Schneider
R. Smith
Substitution
Switzerland
3 R. Smith
A. Hunziker
Switzerland
17 A. Hunziker
R. Buess
Substitution
Switzerland
9 R. Buess
M. Hitz
Switzerland
1 M. Hitz
D. Schmid
Switzerland
31 (C) D. Schmid
N. Vouilloz
Switzerland
3 N. Vouilloz
F. Daniliuc
Austria
24 F. Daniliuc
K. Rüegg
Substitution
Switzerland
27 K. Rüegg
A. Silu
Substitution
Brazil
5 A. Silu
K. Koindredi
Substitution
France
8 K. Koindredi
B. Traore
Ivory Coast
11 B. Traore
A. Bačanin
Substitution
Serbia
14 A. Bačanin
I. Salah
Morocco
21 I. Salah
G. Koloto
Substitution
37 G. Koloto

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Schützenwiese
Capacity
9450
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Noël Lötscher
Luca Piccolo
Deborah Anex
Marco Zürcher

Statistics

Possession
Winterthur
46%
BAS
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 2
40 Dangerous attacks 41
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

73 Ball Safe 86
13 Goal Attempts 3
8 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Penalties 0
5 Goal Kicks 8
14 Dribble Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
1 Hit Woodwork 0
21 Throwins 19
0 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
90 Attacks 87

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62
14 Successful Long Passes 32
327 Passes 441
78 Successful Passes Percentage 82
256 Successful Passes 363
8 Key Passes 3
42 Long Passes 52

Defensive

17 Tackles 18
11 Interceptions 12
1 Saves 6

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 11
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

17 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Luca Piccolo

Starting XI ▼

1
Stefanos Kapino
Stefanos Kapino Goalkeeper
6.29
5
Lukas Mühl
Lukas Mühl Defender
6.49
44
Stéphane Cueni
Stéphane Cueni
Midfielder67'
6.41
21
Loïc Lüthi
Loïc Lüthi Defender
6.27
31
Mirlind Kryeziu
Mirlind Kryeziu Defender
5.04
16
Remo Arnold
Remo Arnold
Defender20'
6.58
3
Rhodri Smith
Rhodri Smith Midfielder
6.73
35
Leandro Maksutaj
Leandro Maksutaj
Midfielder85'
7
Luca Zuffi
Luca Zuffi (C) Midfielder
6.49
23
Pajtim Kasami
Pajtim Kasami
Midfielder67'
6.64
8
Théo Golliard
Théo Golliard Midfielder
7.13
10
Randy Schneider
Randy Schneider Midfielder
7.05
11
Bafode Dansoko
Bafode Dansoko Midfielder
7.27
9
Roman Buess
Roman Buess Attacker
6.22
37
Elias Maluvunu
Elias Maluvunu
Midfielder67'
6.6
17
Andrin Hunziker
Andrin Hunziker Attacker
6.58
Referee : Luca Piccolo

Starting XI ▼

1
Marwin Hitz
Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
8.93
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
6.91
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
7.15
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg Defender
5.3
25
Finn van Breemen
Finn van Breemen
Defender12'
6.08
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid (C) Defender
7.04
5
Metinho
Metinho Midfielder
6.97
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy
Midfielder46'
6.71
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi Midfielder
6.72
28
Dion Kacuri
Dion Kacuri
Midfielder69'
6.44
11
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Midfielder
8.04
14
Andrej Bacanin
Andrej Bacanin Midfielder
6.98
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri
Midfielder46'
6.64
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah Midfielder
7.49
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto Attacker
6.41
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti
Attacker46'
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leandro Maksutaj → Rhodri Smith
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Finn van Breemen
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
71'
Event
Bénie Traoré
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
69'
Event
Dion Kacuri → Koba Koindredi
9th Substitution
Event
Pajtim Kasami → Luca Zuffi
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Elias Maluvunu → Roman Buess
8th Substitution
67'
Event
Stéphane Cueni → Lukas Mühl
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Remo Arnold
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
57'
57'
Event
Nicolas Vouilloz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Xherdan Shaqiri   → Andrej Bacanin
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Albian Ajeti → Giacomo Koloto
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Léo Leroy → Metinho 
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Finn van Breemen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Remo Arnold → Mirlind Kryeziu
2nd Substitution
20'
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
19'
17'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Ibrahim Salah
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Event
Finn van Breemen → Kevin Rüegg
1st Substitution
Event
Roman Buess
GoalkeeperSave
7'
1'
Event
7th Yellowcard
1'
Event
Giacomo Koloto
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Basel exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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