Westerlo vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Het Kuipje Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Westerlo KVC
2 Winner 0
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 1 Conference League Play-off Group
Emin Bayram - 34' (P)
Nacho Ferri - 79'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Étienne Camara 60'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Westerlo securing a 2-0 victory over Sporting Charleroi. The hosts led 1-0 at halftime before adding a second goal to comfortably seal the win. This outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, as Charleroi entered the fixture as slight favorites with a 38.1% implied win probability. Westerlo held a 35.4% chance to win alongside a 26.5% probability for a draw. Ultimately, Westerlo's triumph represented a significant deviation from those initial expectations. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with the quality of chances created, Westerlo effectively managed the tempo, holding a slight edge with 53% possession to Charleroi's 47%. The match's dynamic was heavily influenced by a red card issued to Sporting Charleroi. This dismissal created a clear second-half distortion, severely hampering the visitors' chances of finding an equalizer. Even without xG metrics, the overall efficiency shift was deemed to be in line with the actual events on the pitch, allowing Westerlo to capitalize on their numerical advantage and comfortably secure the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Hillaert
M. Hillaert
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.58
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
L. Jans
L. Jans
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.58
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
N. Verboomen
N. Verboomen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.58
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
W. De Cremer
W. De Cremer
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.58
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
VS
Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 68 D
Club Brugge Rank: 83 L
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 W
Antwerp Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 63 L
OH Leuven Rank: 65 L
Dender Rank: 61 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
Gent Rank: 72 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 7 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Westerlo
35.35%
Draw
26.52%
Away Sporting Charleroi
38.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.61
68.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Westerlo
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
70.61
68.66
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
175
220

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.49
20.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.74
33.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Westerlo +1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi -1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Westerlo Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Westerlo Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Westerlo
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Westerlo
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Westerlo Sporting Charleroi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Westerlo 0.27
Sporting Charleroi 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Westerlo Sporting Charleroi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Westerlo 0.00
Sporting Charleroi 0.04
Westerlo
Sporting Charleroi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Westerlo KVC Home
30 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
10
Wins
13
7
Draws
7
13
Losses
10
Goals
40
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
40
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
E. Bayram
Turkey
40 E. Bayram
R. Neustädter
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
A. Lapage
Belgium
4 A. Lapage
D. Haspolat
Netherlands
34 D. Haspolat
A. Piedfort
Substitution
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
S. Saito
Substitution
38 S. Saito
I. Sakamoto
Substitution
Japan
13 I. Sakamoto
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
I. Ferri Julià
Substitution
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Substitution
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
E. Camara
France
5 E. Camara
Y. Titraoui
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
P. Guiagon
Ivory Coast
10 P. Guiagon
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
A. Scheidler
France
21 A. Scheidler

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Het Kuipje
Capacity
8182
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mathias Hillaert
Lennert Jans
Nathan Verboomen
Wesli De Cremer

Statistics

Possession
KVC
52%
SPC
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 2
55 Dangerous attacks 55
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 6
6 Goal Kicks 9
20 Throwins 16
27 Dribble Attempts 10
94 Ball Safe 84
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 3
1 Assists 0
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
6 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

101 Attacks 83
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
427 Successful Passes 367
490 Passes 437
10 Key Passes 7
47 Long Passes 51
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65
30 Successful Long Passes 33

Defensive

17 Tackles 29
11 Interceptions 10
4 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 15
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 6
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
4
Amando Lapage
Amando Lapage Defender
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
13
Isa Sakamoto
Isa Sakamoto Midfielder
39
Thomas Van den Keybus
Thomas Van den Keybus
Midfielder84'
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito Midfielder
28
Dylan Ourega
Dylan Ourega
Defender62'
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
8
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Midfielder83'
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
11
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Attacker76'
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
29
Fernand Goure
Fernand Goure
Attacker84'
Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Defender
9
Filip Szymczak
Filip Szymczak
Attacker83'
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon Midfielder
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder83'
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder72'
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Thomas Van den Keybus → Isa Sakamoto
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Fernand Goure → Nacho Ferri
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Sergiy Sydorchuk → Arthur Piedfort
5th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Filip Szymczak → Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Patrick Pflücke
4th Substitution
Event
Nacho Ferri
Header / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni → Josimar Alcócer
3rd Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Antoine Bernier
2nd Substitution
Event
Amando Lapage
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Dylan Ourega → Shunsuke Saito
1st Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Étienne Camara
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Josimar Alcócer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
54'
Event
Étienne Camara
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Emin Bayram
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
34'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Westerlo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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