Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
RBL
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig has finished, with Leipzig securing a 2-1 away victory. The visitors established a 1-0 lead by half-time before holding on to claim the win. Pre-match expectations favored the stronger RB Leipzig side, who entered the contest with a 50% implied market probability of winning, compared to Bremen's 25.2% chance and a 24.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the full-time result was completely aligned with the pre-match market. Despite suffering a home defeat, Werder Bremen controlled the majority of the ball, registering 55% possession compared to RB Leipzig's 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams in this fixture, meaning an exact assessment of whether the outcome was consistent with xG cannot be made. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was in line with historical baselines. The match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. Ultimately, RB Leipzig produced a significant statistical deviation in their overall performance profile, allowing them to overcome their lower possession numbers and ruthlessly secure the expected result on the road.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: RB Leipzig showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Team Power Ranking
i
75.9
86.37
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Werder Bremen
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Werder Bremen
⚠ Proxy
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:15+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Werder Bremen
vs
FC Köln
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
RB Leipzig
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Substitutes ▼



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Match Commentary