Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Wohninvest Weserstadion Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen SVW
Versus
Hamburger SV HSV
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Werder Bremen host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Wohninvest Weserstadion. Domestically, Werder Bremen sit 15th in the table while Hamburger SV are 12th. Power ranking favours Hamburger SV by 1.5 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hamburger SV hold a 1.5-point power advantage over Werder Bremen as the designated stronger team.
  • Form: Werder Bremen lead in form with a 13.78 score compared to Hamburger SV's 8.
  • Squad: Hamburger SV rank higher at 12th in the league table versus Werder Bremen's 15th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to absent xG data and low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable for Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV.
  • Market: Werder Bremen 48.1% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 26.5% (Δ-0.2%) | Hamburger SV 25.4% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Köln Rank: D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 5 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Werder Bremen
48.1%
Draw
26.49%
Away Hamburger SV
25.41%

Movement

Changes since opening
Werder Bremen
+0.08%
Draw
-0.22%
Hamburger SV
+0.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.91
18.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
Power Score
16.91
18.4
League Position
15
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Werder Bremen Hamburger SV

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Werder Bremen SVW Home
29 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
14
Wins
10
5
Draws
5
10
Losses
14
Goals
40
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
40
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:07:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Backhaus
Germany
30 M. Backhaus
Y. Sugawara
Japan
3 Y. Sugawara
A. Pieper
Germany
5 A. Pieper
N. Stark
Germany
4 N. Stark
O. Deman
Belgium
2 O. Deman
S. Lynen
Belgium
14 S. Lynen
L. Bittencourt
Germany
10 L. Bittencourt
M. Grüll
Austria
17 M. Grüll
R. Schmid
Austria
20 R. Schmid
F. Agu
Germany
27 F. Agu
J. Njinmah
Germany
11 J. Njinmah
D. Heuer Fernandes
Portugal
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
D. Elfadli
Libya
8 D. Elfadli
J. Torunarigha
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
W. Omari
France
17 W. Omari
F. Uri Baldé
Portugal
45 F. Uri Baldé
N. Remberg
Germany
21 N. Remberg
A. Erlykke
Denmark
23 A. Erlykke
W. Mikelbrencis
France
2 W. Mikelbrencis
F. Ferreira Vieira
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Philippe
France
14 R. Philippe
R. Königsdörffer
Ghana
11 R. Königsdörffer

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Wohninvest Weserstadion
Capacity
42100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nikolai Kimmeyer
Stefan Lupp
Harm Osmers
Florian Exner

Lineup

Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Defender
6.95
3
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara Defender
6.67
4
Niklas Stark
Niklas Stark Defender
6.48
5
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper Defender
7.04
10
Leonardo Bittencourt
Leonardo Bittencourt Midfielder
6.65
14
Senne Lynen
Senne Lynen Midfielder
6.79
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Midfielder
7.02
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah Attacker
6.74
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll Attacker
6.82
27
Felix Agu
Felix Agu Attacker
6.69
Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.87
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Defender
6.5
8
Daniel Elfadli
Daniel Elfadli Defender
6.62
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
6.61
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
6.83
45
Fabio Baldé
Fabio Baldé Defender
6.64
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Midfielder
7.09
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
6.87
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Midfielder
6.43
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.72
14
Rayan Philippe
Rayan Philippe Attacker
6.73

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Hamburger SV holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Hamburger SV a 1.5-point edge. External projection is Werder Bremen 48.1%, draw 26.5%, and Hamburger SV 25.4%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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