Vukovar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Tue, 7 Apr - 1:45 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
1 – 1
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 1:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Vito Caic - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Leon Belcar - 51'

CONTEXT

The match between Vukovar and Lokomotiva Zagreb has officially finished, with the final whistle sealing a 1-1 draw. Following a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, both sides found the back of the net in the second period but ultimately had to share the points. This stalemate resulted in a significant deviation from expectations, frustrating backers of Lokomotiva Zagreb. The visitors entered as the stronger side with a 39.6% win probability, compared to Vukovar's 32.4% and a 27.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the final result failed to align with the pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, Lokomotiva Zagreb dictated the tempo, maintaining 58% possession against Vukovar's 42%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable, it cannot be determined if the drawn outcome aligned with the actual chance creation. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard play. The contest was also disciplined; neither team suffered a red card, ensuring both sides finished the match with a full complement of players and no major numerical disadvantages impacted the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Antonio Melnjak
Antonio Melnjak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Pataki
G. Pataki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Škobić
A. Škobić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Đerđ
F. Đerđ
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 71 L
Varaždin Rank: 63 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Osijek Rank: 62 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 64 D
Gorica Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 78 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 70 L
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Osijek Rank: 62 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 64 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
32.44%
Draw
27.92%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
39.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.5
59.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
47.5
59.89
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
624
467

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.93
18.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.28
18.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar +0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vukovar
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vukovar 0.08
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vukovar 0.01
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.02
Vukovar
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
M. Bulat
Croatia
1 M. Bulat
A. Bosec
Croatia
8 A. Bosec
J. Gurlica
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
K. Cabrajic
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
E. Shabani
Substitution
Albania
77 E. Shabani
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
D. Kamenović
Substitution
Serbia
33 D. Kamenović
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
L. Belcar
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
B. Bošković
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
M. Subotic
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković
J. Vasilj
Substitution
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
I. Abdallah Sabra
Substitution
Jordan
9 I. Abdallah Sabra

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Antonio Melnjak
Goran Pataki
Antonio Škobić
Filip Đerđ

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
43%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 6
59 Dangerous attacks 92
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
26 Throwins 19
7 Successful Dribbles 5
10 Goal Kicks 7
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
113 Attacks 154

Possession

10 Successful Long Passes 27
22 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
68 Successful Passes Percentage 77
182 Successful Passes 281
267 Passes 366
45 Long Passes 65
5 Key Passes 3

Defensive

13 Tackles 11
54 Duels Won 42
0 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 2
12 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Starting XI ▼

1
Marino Bulat
Marino Bulat Goalkeeper
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Defender
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Defender
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
19
Alen Jurilj
Alen Jurilj
Midfielder90+1'
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
50
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder81'
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6
Jakov Biljan
Jakov Biljan
Midfielder81'
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Defender
33
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Dimitrije Kamenovic Defender
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer
Defender82'
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
—
Blaz Boskovic
45'
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Midfielder
7
Aleksandar Trajkovski
Aleksandar Trajkovski
Attacker82'
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
18
Khalil Ben Youssef
Khalil Ben Youssef
Defender77'
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra Attacker
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder77'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alen Jurilj → Simun Butic
8th Substitution
90+1'
82'
Event
Luka Dajcer → Dimitrije Kamenovic
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Aleksandar Trajkovski → Aleks Stojakovic
7th Substitution
Event
Jakov Biljan → Eniss Shabani
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Lovro Banovec
5th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Marcel Lorber → Ibrahim Sabra
2nd Substitution
77'
Event
Khalil Ben Youssef → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Nikica Jelavić
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Vito Caic
Header / 2nd Goal
69'
Event
Antonio Bosec
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
64'
Event
Denis Kolinger
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Leon Belcar
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Marko Vesovic
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Dušan Vuković → Blaz Boskovic
1st Substitution
Event
Var
39'
33'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lokomotiva Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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