Vukovar vs Hajduk Split Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sat, 21 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
0 Winner 6
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
Marko Livaja - 6' (P)
Roko Brajkovic - 33'
Ante Rebić - 47'
Rokas Pukstas - 63'
Michele Sego - 84'
Nikita Vlasenko - 89' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Hajduk Split securing a comprehensive 4-0 away victory over Vukovar. The visitors established their dominance early, heading into halftime with a 2-0 advantage, and comfortably doubled their tally in the second half. This commanding result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger Hajduk Split side with a 54.7% win probability. Vukovar was given just a 19.8% chance to cause an upset, while a draw sat at 25.5%. Even though the victory was predicted, the margin of the win resulted in a significant positive deviation for Hajduk Split compared to standard pre-match expectations. On the pitch, Hajduk Split controlled the overall flow, holding 54% of the possession compared to Vukovar's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data is currently unavailable to further evaluate the scoring quality, making it impossible to confirm xG alignment. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with projections. The fixture was also free of disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card, allowing the visitors to dictate the pace wire-to-wire.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Vukovar S. Čabraja
S. Čabraja
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 63 L
Rijeka Rank: 72 L
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Gorica Rank: 63 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 77 L
Varaždin Rank: 64 D
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
19.78%
Draw
25.51%
Away Hajduk Split
54.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.9
71.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Hajduk Split
Power Score
47.9
71.95
League Position
10
2
Global Rank
631
156

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.28
42.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.59
22.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar -2.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split +2.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
2 matches
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Pintol
Slovenia
22 D. Pintol
M. Tadić
Croatia
34 M. Tadić
J. Elez
Substitution
Croatia
26 J. Elez
M. Živković
Substitution
Croatia
14 M. Živković
A. Bosec
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Bosec
J. Gurlica
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
V. Čaić
Substitution
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
M. Tičinović
Substitution
Croatia
91 M. Tičinović
J. Špoljarić
Croatia
50 J. Špoljarić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 (C) R. Gonzales
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
?. Hrgović
Substitution
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
M. Skelin
Croatia
36 M. Skelin
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
F. Krovinović
Croatia
23 F. Krovinović
H. Guillamón Sanmartín
Spain
6 H. Guillamón Sanmartín
A. Rebić
Substitution
Croatia
9 A. Rebić
R. Pukstas
Substitution
United States
21 R. Pukstas
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
M. Livaja
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dario Bel
Dino Knez
Marko Reljan
Antonio Škobić

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
46%
Hajduk Split
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 6
1 Big Chances Created 10
7 Shots 19
65 Dangerous attacks 80
46 Possession 54
3 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Goal Kicks 2
21 Throwins 21
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
0 Penalties 1
4 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

138 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

34 Successful Long Passes 20
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
406 Passes 492
80 Successful Passes Percentage 84
326 Successful Passes 415
55 Long Passes 51

Defensive

12 Tackles 23
5 Interceptions 12
6 Saves 4

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Dario Bel

Starting XI ▼

22
Denis Pintol
Denis Pintol Goalkeeper
7.27
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
6.19
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic
Midfielder73'
6.18
26
Josip Elez
Josip Elez Defender
6.15
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko
Defender46'
5.6
34
Mario Tadic
Mario Tadic Defender
5.45
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Midfielder
6
7
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Defender73'
6.23
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Midfielder
6.25
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic
Defender46'
5.89
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.63
50
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić Midfielder
6.31
91
Mario Tičinović
Mario Tičinović Midfielder
5.81
24
Halid Šabanović
Halid Šabanović
Defender89'
6.54
10
Robin González
Robin González (C) Attacker
6.39
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
6.34
Referee : Dario Bel

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
7.54
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defender
7.09
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
7.1
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.99
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak
Defender61'
7.23
36
Marino Skelin
Marino Skelin Defender
7.01
6
Hugo Guillamón
Hugo Guillamón Midfielder
7.38
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić Midfielder
8.34
34
Bruno Durdov
Bruno Durdov
Attacker73'
6.63
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
7.95
7
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder73'
6.52
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
7.45
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
7.93
24
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang
Attacker67'
7.2
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja (C) Attacker
8.54
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego
Attacker67'
7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Halid Šabanović → Mario Tičinović
10th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Nikita Vlasenko
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
84'
Event
Michele Sego
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Antonio Bosec
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Simun Butic → Moreno Zivkovic
6th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Bruno Durdov → Ante Rebić
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Anthony Kalik → Rokas Pukstas
9th Substitution
67'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Roko Brajkovic
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Michele Sego → Marko Livaja
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
61'
Event
Dario Melnjak → Simun Hrgovic
3rd Substitution
47'
Event
Ante Rebić
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Nikita Vlasenko → Josip Elez
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Kristijan Cabrajic → Vito Caic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Roko Brajkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Dario Maresic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
6'
Event
Marko Livaja
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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