Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Mon, 13 Apr - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
1 Winner 4
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Jakov Puljic - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Dion Beljo - 32', 51' (P), 90+5'
Josip Elez - 68' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match between Vukovar and Dinamo Zagreb is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-4. Dinamo Zagreb produced a commanding away victory that matched their pre-match status as the clear stronger side. Expectations before kickoff gave the visitors roughly a 78 percent chance of success, with Vukovar rated at only 7 percent. The outcome showed significant deviation in Dinamo’s favor, as they converted control into a multi-goal margin beyond even the most optimistic forecasts. Dinamo enjoyed 67 percent possession against Vukovar’s 33 percent and used that territorial dominance to score three second-half goals after leading 1-0 at the interval. No red cards were issued and the contest remained free of major disciplinary turning points. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations throughout, and the result ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection for a Dinamo win. The visitors proved clinical in attack while Vukovar struggled to create meaningful threats despite home advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Kolarić
P. Kolarić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
I. Starčević
I. Starčević
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
V. Đurak
V. Đurak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Oliver Romić
Oliver Romić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.47
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Gorica Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
7.02%
Draw
14.61%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
78.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vukovar
+6.78%
Draw
+12.69%
Dinamo Zagreb
-19.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.47
41.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
15.47
41.71
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.36
30.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.30
41.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar +1.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb -1.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vukovar
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vukovar 0.21
Dinamo Zagreb 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vukovar 0.04
Dinamo Zagreb 0.02
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 12'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
Vukovar Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 12' (74.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:00:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Bulat
Croatia
1 M. Bulat
A. Bosec
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Bosec
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
J. Elez
Croatia
26 J. Elez
K. Cabrajic
Substitution
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
J. Gurlica
Substitution
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
E. Shabani
Albania
77 E. Shabani
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
I. Filipović
Croatia
44 I. Filipović
B. Goda
Substitution
Croatia
3 B. Goda
S. McKenna
Scotland
26 S. McKenna
S. Domínguez Viloria
Spain
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
N. Galesic
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
M. Zajc
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
J. Mišić
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
L. Stojković
Substitution
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
G. Vidović
Substitution
Croatia
10 G. Vidović
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
M. Bakrar
Substitution
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Starčević
Vedran Đurak
Oliver Romić

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
37%
GNK
63%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 106
33 Possession 67
3 Corners 6
4 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 7
17 Dribble Attempts 15
17 Throwins 20
14 Successful Dribbles 13
82 Successful Dribbles Percentage 87
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 179
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

165 Successful Passes 407
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
19 Successful Long Passes 20
242 Passes 492
53 Long Passes 39
68 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

10 Tackles 20
44 Duels Won 56
10 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 3

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 21
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 4
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

1
Marino Bulat
Marino Bulat Goalkeeper
6.76
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
5.6
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Defender
6.3
33
Luka Klanac
Luka Klanac
Attacker75'
6.53
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.52
91
Mario Tičinović
Mario Tičinović
Defender88'
6.65
26
Josip Elez
Josip Elez Defender
6.52
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
6.9
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
6.57
39
Pocholo Bugas
Pocholo Bugas
Attacker82'
6.45
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
6.79
19
Alen Jurilj
Alen Jurilj
Midfielder75'
6.66
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.9
50
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder88'
6.44
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.7
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
6.97
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

44
Ivan Filipovic
Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
6.76
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic
Defender83'
6.91
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
6.8
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
7.16
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
7.12
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
7.25
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder72'
6.76
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
7.6
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Midfielder
7.04
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker61'
7.06
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
7.22
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Midfielder
6.9
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker61'
6.95
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
3
7.41

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mario Tičinović → Kristijan Cabrajic
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Jakov Gurlica
8th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Marko Soldo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Moris Valincic → Bruno Goda
7th Substitution
Event
Pocholo Bugas → Simun Butic
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Alen Jurilj → Lovro Banovec
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Luka Klanac → Antonio Bosec
5th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Marko Soldo → Luka Stojkovic
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Josip Elez
Header / 1st Own Goal
Event
Jakov Gurlica
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
66'
Event
Jakov Puljic
Header / 2nd Goal
63'
61'
Event
Arbër Hoxha → Monsef Bakrar
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Gabriel Vidovic
2nd Substitution
51'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
50'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Dion Beljo
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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