Viking vs Molde Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
SR-Bank Arena Sat, 21 Mar - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Viking Viking
4 Winner 1
Molde Molde
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Niklas Fuglestad - 7', 61'
Henrik Heggheim - 25', 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Emil Breivik - 9'
|
Second yellow card Samukelo Kabini 90+3'

CONTEXT

The match between Viking and Molde has finished, with Viking securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. This outcome was market-aligned, as Viking entered the contest as the stronger team with a 56.1% pre-match probability of winning. Molde held just a 19.2% chance of claiming an away victory, with the draw set at 24.7%. Ultimately, the underlying match dynamics produced a significant deviation level of 43.9% favoring Viking. Despite claiming the win, Viking operated with just 34% possession, allowing Molde to control the ball for 66% of the fixture. The attacking metrics were highly competitive, with Viking narrowly edging the expected goals (xG) battle 2.72 to 2.45. The home victory remained consistent with this xG advantage, and the overall finishing efficiency shift was in line with standard expectations. The tactical landscape was notably impacted by disciplinary issues, as Molde received a red card. This crucial dismissal forced second-half adjustments and created a red card distortion that effectively neutralized the visitors' possession dominance, helping Viking hold on to their narrow lead until the final whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Viking showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Viking M. Jensen
M. Jensen
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
2.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam Rank: 58 L
Vålerenga Rank: 62 W
Fredrikstad Rank: 63 W
HamKam Rank: 60 W
Strømsgodset Rank: 50 W
Bryne Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: 63 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 62 L
Brann Rank: 67 W
Haugesund Rank: 43 W
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Viking
56.11%
Draw
24.66%
Away Molde
19.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.84
64.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Viking
Molde
Power Score
75.84
64.64
League Position
3
9
Global Rank
94
336

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Viking — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Viking Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Viking

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Viking ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.71
21.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.06
39.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Viking +1.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde -1.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Viking
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Viking
vs
Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Viking Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Viking Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Viking
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Viking Viking Home
38 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
18
Wins
13
7
Draws
7
13
Losses
18
Goals
64
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
64
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Østbø
Norway
1 A. Østbø
H. Heggheim
Substitution
Norway
5 H. Heggheim
G. Stensness
Australia
6 G. Stensness
H. Falchener
Norway
25 H. Falchener
K. Haugen
Norway
28 K. Haugen
J. Bell
New Zealand
8 J. Bell
N. Kemp Fuglestad
Substitution
23 N. Kemp Fuglestad
K. Askildsen
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Askildsen
S. Kvia-Egeskog
Norway
26 S. Kvia-Egeskog
Z. Tripić
Substitution
Norway
10 (C) Z. Tripić
P. Christiansen
Substitution
Denmark
20 P. Christiansen
M. Juhl Kikkenborg
Denmark
1 M. Juhl Kikkenborg
S. Kabini
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
E. Haugan
Substitution
Norway
19 E. Haugan
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
V. Hoff
Substitution
Norway
15 V. Hoff
J. Christensen
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
T. Doherty
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
24 T. Doherty
E. Breivik
Norway
10 (C) E. Breivik
K. Eriksen
Substitution
Norway
20 K. Eriksen
W. Abdulai
Substitution
Ghana
9 W. Abdulai

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
SR-Bank Arena
Capacity
15900
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Christer Solheim Jørgensen
Sivert Amland
Amir Ajjour
Tom Harald Grønevik

Statistics

Possession
Viking
39%
Molde
61%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
30 Dangerous attacks 38
34 Possession 66
3 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 11
79 Ball Safe 84
10 Goal Kicks 3
4 Assists 0
16 Throwins 19
1 Hit Woodwork 0
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
2 Successful Dribbles 7
10 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

64 Attacks 67
4 Counter Attacks 1
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

10 Key Passes 7
24 Successful Long Passes 18
214 Successful Passes 507
73 Successful Passes Percentage 87
295 Passes 586
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
58 Long Passes 36

Defensive

13 Tackles 14
5 Saves 2
10 Interceptions 11

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 27
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
20 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

1
Arild Østbø
Arild Østbø Goalkeeper
7.26
5
Henrik Heggheim
Henrik Heggheim Defender
2
8.32
24
Vetle Auklend
Vetle Auklend
Defender85'
6.55
6
Gianni Stensness
Gianni Stensness Defender
7.08
25
Henrik Falchener
Henrik Falchener Defender
6.73
28
Kristoffer Haugen
Kristoffer Haugen Defender
6.95
7
Kristoffer Askildsen
Kristoffer Askildsen Midfielder
6.68
33
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Midfielder66'
6.63
8
Joe Bell
Joe Bell Midfielder
6.57
10
Zlatko Tripic
Zlatko Tripic (C) Midfielder
7.74
15
Ola Visted
Ola Visted
Midfielder85'
6.72
23
Niklas Fuglestad
Niklas Fuglestad Midfielder
2
8.09
2
Herman Haugen
Herman Haugen
Defender66'
6.38
26
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Simen Kvia-Egeskog Midfielder
6.84
20
Peter Christiansen
Peter Christiansen Attacker
7.08
11
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
Attacker74'
6.61
Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Kikkenborg
Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper
6.09
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
6.17
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
6.76
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan Defender
6.84
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Defender77'
6.85
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
5.81
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Midfielder
6.96
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
6.79
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
6.81
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas
Midfielder87'
20
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Midfielder
6.25
31
Blerton Isufi
Blerton Isufi
Midfielder77'
6.6
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty Midfielder
6.4
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery
Attacker65'
6.64
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai Attacker
6.5
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Attacker65'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Samukelo Kabini
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
87'
Event
Sondre Granaas → Vebjørn Hoff
10th Substitution
Event
Vetle Auklend → Henrik Heggheim
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Ola Visted → Zlatko Tripic
9th Substitution
85'
Event
5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
79'
77'
Event
Isak Helstad Amundsen → Eirik Haugan
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Blerton Isufi → Kristian Eriksen
7th Substitution
Event
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson → Peter Christiansen
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Herman Haugen → Niklas Fuglestad
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Jakob Segadal Hansen → Kristoffer Askildsen
3rd Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Caleb Zady Sery → Trent Kone Doherty
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen → Jalal Abdullai
1st Substitution
Event
Henrik Falchener
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Niklas Fuglestad
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
61'
54'
Event
Samukelo Kabini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Martin Falk
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Kristoffer Askildsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Header / 4th Goal
31'
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Header / 3rd Goal
25'
Event
Henrik Falchener
Goal disallowed
15'
9'
Event
Emil Breivik
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Niklas Fuglestad
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Viking exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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