VfB Stuttgart vs Porto Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa League
Porto
POR
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between VfB Stuttgart and Porto is now finished, with Porto securing a 2-1 away victory. All scoring occurred in the first half, as Porto took a 2-1 lead into the break and maintained it until the final whistle. This full-time scoreline represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Ahead of the fixture, the market heavily favored the home side with a 51.1% win probability, giving Porto just a 22.3% chance of a victory alongside a 26.6% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market predictions. VfB Stuttgart dominated the flow of play, controlling 60% of the possession compared to Porto's 40%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this contest, meaning it cannot be evaluated whether the outcome was consistent with xG. However, the overall efficiency shift was in line with the final result, reflecting Porto's superior efficiency rating of 0.81 against Stuttgart's -0.81. The match concluded without any red cards for either side, ensuring numerical parity throughout the contest. Ultimately, Porto overcame the market odds and a notable possession deficit to claim the win.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Porto showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
Team Power Ranking
i
85.26
85.36
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
VfB Stuttgart
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
VfB Stuttgart
⚠ Proxy
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T00:56:58+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary