Varaždin vs Slaven Koprivnica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
2 Winner 1
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Iuri Tavares - 12'
Ivan Mamut - 77' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ljuban Crepulja - 39'

CONTEXT

The match between Varaždin and Slaven Koprivnica is finished, ending 2-1 to the home side after a 1-1 scoreline at halftime. Varaždin found the winner in the second half to secure all three points in what became a competitive encounter. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Varaždin outperforming forecasts as the stronger team. Pre-match assessments had pointed to a closely balanced contest, yet the home side showed clear superiority to take the victory. Possession was shared almost equally throughout, finishing at 53 percent for Varaždin and 47 percent for Slaven Koprivnica. No red cards were issued to disrupt the flow, and the efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. The outcome aligned with the pre-match projection for Varaždin, confirming their edge despite the absence of expected goals data.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Z. Lovrić
Z. Lovrić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
I. Janić
I. Janić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
D. Kolarević
D. Kolarević
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
1.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
38.74%
Draw
29.36%
Away Slaven Koprivnica
31.9%

Movement

Changes since opening
Varaždin
-57.37%
Draw
+25.66%
Slaven Koprivnica
+31.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.77
19.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Slaven Koprivnica
Power Score
20.77
19.18
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.36
35.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.74
32.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin -0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Slaven Koprivnica +0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Slaven Koprivnica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Slaven Koprivnica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Slaven Koprivnica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.22
Slaven Koprivnica 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.02
Slaven Koprivnica 0.03
Varaždin
Slaven Koprivnica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Varaždin had peak pressure around 1'.
  • Varaždin started the game with stronger pressure.
Varaždin Pressure Slaven Koprivnica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Varaždin reached the top pressure at 1' (87.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
38 matches
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Away
Match Record
8
Wins
18
12
Draws
12
18
Losses
8
Goals
37
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
37
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
R. Punčec
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
L. Škaričić
Croatia
4 L. Škaričić
A. Boršić
Substitution
Croatia
25 A. Boršić
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
M. Vuk
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
I. Canjuga
Croatia
28 I. Canjuga
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
Iuri Tavares
Substitution
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
I. Mamut
Substitution
Croatia
17 I. Mamut
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
F. Jović
Serbia
22 F. Jović
D. Kovačić
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
T. Božić
Croatia
6 T. Božić
F. Krušelj
Substitution
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
I. Ćubelić
Substitution
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
A. Grgić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Grgić
F. Mažar
Substitution
Croatia
17 F. Mažar
J. Mitrović
Substitution
Croatia
11 J. Mitrović
M. Dabro
Croatia
7 M. Dabro

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Pavlešić
Zdenko Lovrić
Ivan Janić
Dario Kolarević

Statistics

Possession
Varaždin
54%
Slaven Koprivnica
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 14
63 Dangerous attacks 56
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Goal Kicks 10
30 Throwins 25
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
22 Dribble Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
11 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

99 Attacks 105
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

59 Long Passes 43
319 Successful Passes 268
389 Passes 339
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23
12 Key Passes 9
82 Successful Passes Percentage 79
25 Successful Long Passes 10

Defensive

5 Saves 4
10 Interceptions 9
11 Tackles 16

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Defender
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek
Defender79'
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder79'
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder64'
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
12
Petar Bockaj
Petar Bockaj
Defender64'
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Attacker
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski
Defender83'
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
6
Tomislav Bozic
Tomislav Bozic Defender
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Defender
33
Karlo Isasegi
Karlo Isasegi
Defender86'
22
Filip Jovic
Filip Jovic Defender
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak
Midfielder66'
17
Filip Mažar
Filip Mažar Midfielder
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica
Midfielder66'
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
11
Josip Mitrovic
Josip Mitrovic Attacker
29
Marko Aščić
Marko Aščić
Attacker86'
27
Alen Grgic
Alen Grgic Attacker
26
Gabrijel Sivalec
Gabrijel Sivalec
Attacker35'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luka Skaricic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
86'
Event
Marko Aščić → Josip Mitrovic
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Karlo Isasegi → Filip Kruselj
10th Substitution
Event
Mario Mladenovski → Ivan Mamut
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Gregor Sikosek → Antonio Borsic
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → David Puclin
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Ivan Mamut
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
77'
68'
Event
Leon Bošnjak
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Leon Bošnjak → Ivan Cubelic
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Igor Lepinjica → Filip Mažar
5th Substitution
Event
Ivan Mamut
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Petar Bockaj → Iuri Tavares
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak → Luka Mamic
3rd Substitution
64'
47'
Event
Ljuban Crepulja
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Ljuban Crepulja
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
35'
Event
Gabrijel Sivalec → Alen Grgic
1st Substitution
Event
Iuri Tavares
Header / 1st Goal
12'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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