Varaždin vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Fri, 3 Apr - 4:15 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
1 – 1
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Aleksa Latkovic - 27'
Goal
|
Goal
Ante Erceg - 45'

CONTEXT

The match between Varaždin and Gorica is officially finished, ending in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. Both squads found their attacking rhythm early, scoring in the first half to enter the break perfectly level at 1-1. The contest remained a total stalemate on the pitch throughout the second half, mirrored by an even 50% possession share for both Varaždin and Gorica. Expected goals (xG) data was not recorded for this fixture. Pre-match betting markets anticipated an incredibly tight affair, giving Gorica a minor 35.6% win probability compared to 35.0% for Varaždin, alongside a 29.4% likelihood of a draw. Despite the tight odds, Varaždin was designated as the slightly stronger side, meaning the resulting draw was classified as a significant deviation for Varaždin. Overall, the outcome failed to align with the pre-match market's preference for a decisive winner. Without xG figures available, it is impossible to definitively evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, both teams operated strictly in line with general efficiency expectations. Furthermore, the match progressed smoothly without any major disciplinary incidents or tactical disruptions, as zero red cards were shown to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Tomas
M. Tomas
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
D. Knez
D. Knez
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
P. Kolarić
P. Kolarić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Osijek Rank: 62 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
34.95%
Draw
29.43%
Away Gorica
35.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.85
63.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Gorica
Power Score
63.85
63.03
League Position
4
7
Global Rank
356
378

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.30
12.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.60
37.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin +2.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica -2.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Gorica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Gorica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.30
Gorica 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Gorica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.04
Gorica 0.02
Varaždin
Gorica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
23 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
8
Draws
8
6
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
29
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:02:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
M. Mladenovski
Macedonia
13 M. Mladenovski
R. Punčec
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
N. Tepšić
Croatia
16 N. Tepšić
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
T. Duvnjak
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
G. Sikošek
Slovenia
20 G. Sikošek
M. Vuk
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
A. Latković
Montenegro
10 A. Latković
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
I. Pozo La Rosa
Substitution
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
A. Erceg
Substitution
Croatia
50 A. Erceg

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Marjan Tomas
Dino Knez
Patrik Pavlešić
Patrik Kolarić

Statistics

Possession
Varaždin
52%
Gorica
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 2
53 Dangerous attacks 26
50 Possession 50
8 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
28 Throwins 14
14 Dribble Attempts 24
5 Successful Dribbles 7
6 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 1

Attacking

78 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 77
374 Passes 382
57 Long Passes 53
14 Key Passes 4
286 Successful Passes 294
26 Successful Long Passes 19
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

1 Saves 4
22 Tackles 16
7 Interceptions 10
58 Duels Won 55

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 4
19 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski Defender
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Defender
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga
Attacker63'
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Midfielder
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Attacker
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder86'
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Attacker
12
Petar Bockaj
Petar Bockaj
Defender71'
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder46'
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
32
Elvir Durakovic
Elvir Durakovic
Defender89'
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder82'
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker46'
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Ognjen Bakic
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+1'
89'
Event
Elvir Durakovic → Bruno Bogojevic
8th Substitution
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → Matej Vuk
7th Substitution
86'
83'
Event
Ante Kavelj
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Jurica Prsir
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Marijan Cabraja
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Petar Bockaj → Luka Mamic
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
71'
Event
9th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase → Ante Erceg
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Goal disallowed
Event
Ivan Canjuga → David Puclin
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
46'
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Iker Pozo
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Théo Epailly → Domagoj Pavicic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Ante Erceg
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Novak Tepsic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
33'
Event
Mario Carević
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'
14'
Event
Iker Pozo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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