Vålerenga vs Viking Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Intility Arena Mon, 6 Apr - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
Vålerenga Vålerenga
0 Winner 1
Viking Viking
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
|
Goal
Simen Kvia-Egeskog - 45'
Sebastian Jarl 90+8' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Vålerenga and Viking has finished with a 1-0 full-time victory for the away side, Viking. The visitors secured their advantage early, establishing a 1-0 lead by half-time that ultimately stood as the decisive scoreline. Going into the fixture, Viking were considered the stronger team. Pre-match market probabilities reflected this dynamic, giving Viking a 42.2% chance of winning compared to Vålerenga's 33.3%, alongside a 24.6% likelihood of a draw. The final outcome fully aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the performance still registered as a significant deviation level of 57.8% favoring Viking. Despite the home defeat, Vålerenga actually held a slight edge on the ball, finishing with 51% possession against Viking's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it is undetermined if the 1-0 outcome aligned with the underlying shot quality. The overall attacking efficiency shift remained firmly in line with standard expectations. Crucially, the match dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card issued to Vålerenga. Being reduced to ten men caused noticeable second-half red card distortion, crippling the home side's momentum and preventing them from mounting a comeback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Viking showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Jensen
M. Jensen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Lundberg
M. Lundberg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
H. Holthe
H. Holthe
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
T. Hansen
T. Hansen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Vålerenga G. Bakke
G. Bakke
VS
Viking M. Jensen
M. Jensen
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.63
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: 63 W
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Viking Rank: 76 L
Kristiansund Rank: 55 D
Rosenborg Rank: 61 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Molde Rank: 65 W
HamKam Rank: 58 L
Vålerenga Rank: 61 W
Fredrikstad Rank: 62 W
HamKam Rank: 58 W
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 8 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vålerenga
33.25%
Draw
24.55%
Away Viking
42.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.36
75.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vålerenga
Viking
Power Score
61.36
75.82
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
425
94

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Viking — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vålerenga Viking

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Viking

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Viking
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.78
42.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.86
35.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vålerenga -0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Viking +0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Viking
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Viking
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vålerenga Viking
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vålerenga Viking
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Viking
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vålerenga
vs
Viking
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vålerenga Viking
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vålerenga 0.36
Viking 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vålerenga Viking
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vålerenga 0.02
Viking 0.00
Vålerenga
Viking
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vålerenga Vålerenga Home
38 matches
Viking Viking Away
Match Record
18
Wins
12
8
Draws
8
12
Losses
18
Goals
71
Goals Scored
61
61
Goals Conceded
71
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
H. Sjåtil
Substitution
Norway
3 H. Sjåtil
A. Olsen
Norway
4 A. Olsen
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
F. Thorvaldsen
Substitution
Norway
26 F. Thorvaldsen
M. Westergaard
Substitution
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
C. Lange
Denmark
10 C. Lange
E. Sørensen
Substitution
Denmark
11 E. Sørensen
H. Bjørdal
Norway
8 H. Bjørdal
O. Saeter
Substitution
Norway
90 O. Saeter
A. Østbø
Norway
1 A. Østbø
K. Haugen
Substitution
Norway
28 K. Haugen
H. Falchener
Substitution
Norway
25 H. Falchener
G. Stensness
Australia
6 G. Stensness
H. Heggheim
Norway
5 H. Heggheim
J. Bell
New Zealand
8 J. Bell
Z. Tripić
Substitution
Norway
10 Z. Tripić
S. Kvia-Egeskog
Norway
26 S. Kvia-Egeskog
K. Askildsen
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Askildsen
N. Kemp Fuglestad
Substitution
23 N. Kemp Fuglestad
P. Christiansen
Denmark
20 P. Christiansen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Intility Arena
Capacity
3000
Attendance
14712
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Morten Jensen
Magnus Lundberg
Herman Holthe
Tore Hansen

Statistics

Possession
Vålerenga
50%
Viking
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 16
45 Dangerous attacks 60
51 Possession 49
10 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Throwins 23
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
9 Goal Kicks 14
3 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Goal Attempts 5
64 Ball Safe 57
5 Substitutions 5
11 Dribble Attempts 10

Attacking

89 Attacks 93
1 Counter Attacks 1
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 78
335 Successful Passes 328
431 Passes 419
9 Key Passes 13
80 Long Passes 50
28 Successful Long Passes 20
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

12 Tackles 17
35 Duels Won 46
6 Interceptions 10
5 Saves 2

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil Defender
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder73'
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen Midfielder
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren
Midfielder46'
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen Midfielder
9
Gabriel Rajkovic
Gabriel Rajkovic
Attacker87'
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina
Midfielder74'
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal Attacker
90
Ole Sæter
Ole Sæter Attacker
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern
Midfielder61'
Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Arild Østbø
Arild Østbø Goalkeeper
5
Henrik Heggheim
Henrik Heggheim Defender
6
Gianni Stensness
Gianni Stensness Defender
25
Henrik Falchener
Henrik Falchener Defender
21
Anders Bærtelsen
Anders Bærtelsen
Defender46'
28
Kristoffer Haugen
Kristoffer Haugen Defender
33
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Midfielder80'
7
Kristoffer Askildsen
Kristoffer Askildsen Midfielder
18
Sondre Bjørshol
Sondre Bjørshol
Defender80'
8
Joe Bell
Joe Bell Midfielder
10
Zlatko Tripic
Zlatko Tripic Midfielder
15
Ola Visted
Ola Visted
Midfielder90+6'
23
Niklas Fuglestad
Niklas Fuglestad Midfielder
2
Herman Haugen
Herman Haugen
Defender73'
26
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Simen Kvia-Egeskog Midfielder
20
Peter Christiansen
Peter Christiansen Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sebastian Jarl
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+8'
90+8'
Event
Zlatko Tripic
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Ola Visted → Zlatko Tripic
10th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Rajkovic → Filip Thorvaldsen
9th Substitution
87'
80'
Event
Sondre Bjørshol → Kristoffer Askildsen
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Jakob Segadal Hansen → Kristoffer Haugen
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Morten Jensen
8th Yellowcard
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina → Magnus Westergaard
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Petter Strand → Hakon Sjatil
5th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Herman Haugen → Niklas Fuglestad
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
M. Grundetjern → Ole Sæter
3rd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Simulation / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Lucas Haren → Elias Sørensen
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Anders Bærtelsen → Henrik Falchener
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
44'
39'
Event
Peter Christiansen
Penalty disallowed
Event
Elias Sørensen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
35'
10'
Event
Henrik Falchener
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Viking exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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