Südtirol vs Frosinone Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Sun, 22 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
1 Winner 3
Frosinone FRO
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Emanuele Pecorino - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Antonio Raimondo - 7'
Giacomo Calò - 68'
Farès Ghedjemis - 85'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with a full-time score of Südtirol 1, Frosinone 2. The visitors went into the halftime break with a 1-0 lead and successfully maintained their advantage to secure the victory. This outcome was well aligned with the pre-match market, which rightly favored Frosinone as the stronger team. Pre-match probabilities gave Frosinone a 40.4% chance of winning, compared to a 31.5% chance for a Südtirol home win and a 28.1% likelihood of a draw. Despite being the expected outcome, the statistical model noted a significant deviation level of 59.6% favoring Frosinone's overall performance. On the pitch, Südtirol controlled the overall tempo with 57% possession, leaving Frosinone to operate with just 43% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be mathematically determined if the final outcome was strictly consistent with the quality of scoring chances created. However, the efficiency shift between the two sides remained precisely in line with baseline projections. The match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card. Ultimately, Frosinone absorbed the home side's possession advantage and did enough to validate the market's pre-match confidence.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 L
Reggiana Rank: 51 W
Venezia Rank: 70 D
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Monza Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 44 D
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Avellino Rank: 52 W
Venezia Rank: 70 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
31.46%
Draw
28.1%
Away Frosinone
40.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.3
65.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Frosinone
Power Score
55.3
65.93
League Position
11
2
Global Rank
626
303

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Frosinone

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Frosinone
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.26
21.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.05
35.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol +1.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Frosinone -1.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Frosinone
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Frosinone
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Frosinone
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Frosinone
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Frosinone
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
6 matches
Frosinone FRO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
9
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
H. El Kaouakibi
Substitution
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
A. Masiello
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Masiello
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
F. Davi
Italy
23 F. Davi
F. Tait
Substitution
Italy
21 (C) F. Tait
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
D. Casiraghi
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
K. Zedadka
France
7 K. Zedadka
E. Pecorino
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
Substitution
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
G. Bracaglia
Italy
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Calvani
Italy
3 G. Calvani
I. Monterisi
Italy
30 (C) I. Monterisi
A. Oyono Omva Torque
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
I. Koutsoupias
Greece
8 I. Koutsoupias
F. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Gelli
G. Calò
Substitution
Italy
14 G. Calò
G. Kvernadze
Substitution
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
S. Fini
Substitution
Italy
40 S. Fini

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Marco Piccinini
Fabiano Preti
A. El Filali
Edoardo Mazzoni

Statistics

Possession
SUD
57%
FRO
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 4
82 Dangerous attacks 41
57 Possession 43
3 Corners 4
21 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 1
68 Ball Safe 59
7 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Goal Attempts 7
16 Dribble Attempts 14
11 Goal Kicks 5
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
36 Throwins 23

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
108 Attacks 81

Possession

38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 22
220 Successful Passes 142
27 Successful Long Passes 14
335 Passes 253
71 Long Passes 63
9 Key Passes 4
66 Successful Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

17 Tackles 19
2 Saves 5
9 Interceptions 5

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
5.35
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello Defender
5.84
3
Filipe Bordon
Filipe Bordon
Defender75'
6.44
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
5.9
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
6.29
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio
Midfielder46'
6.35
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.59
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
6.24
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
7.12
99
Simone Verdi
Simone Verdi
Midfielder79'
6.56
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait (C) Midfielder
6.89
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder74'
6.53
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi Midfielder
6.72
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
7.65
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.62
11
Riccardo Tonin
Riccardo Tonin
Attacker88'
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
7.74
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani Defender
7.01
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
6.7
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi (C) Defender
7.25
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Defender
6.4
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias Midfielder
6.01
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli Midfielder
6.2
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella
Midfielder46'
6.93
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
7.52
6
Jacopo Gelli
Jacopo Gelli
Defender90+3'
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
7.19
28
Massimo Zilli
Massimo Zilli
Attacker80'
6.49
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
6.38
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori
Attacker46'
6.73
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini Attacker
6.87
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis
Attacker69'
7.28

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Filipe Bordon
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+3'
Event
Jacopo Gelli → Giacomo Calò
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Ilias Koutsoupias
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Riccardo Tonin → Silvio Merkaj
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Goal awarded
85'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Massimo Zilli → Antonio Raimondo
8th Substitution
Event
Simone Verdi → Simone Tronchin
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Filipe Bordon → Andrea Masiello
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Fabian Tait
5th Substitution
74'
69'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis → Seydou Fini
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
GoalkeeperSave
60'
60'
Event
Massimiliano Alvini
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
Penalty awarded
58'
50'
Event
Ilario Monterisi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Frigerio → Hamza El Kaouakibi
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Matteo Cichella → Francesco Gelli
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Francesco Gelli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
38'
Event
Giorgi Kvernadze
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Gabriele Bracaglia
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
7'
Event
Antonio Raimondo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Frosinone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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