Sturm Graz vs Salzburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Fri, 20 Mar - 6:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
1 – 1
Salzburg RBS
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 6:30 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
Jon Gorenc Stankovic - 45+5'
Goal
|
Goal
Yorbe Vertessen - 32'
|
Second yellow card Anrie Chase 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Sturm Graz and Salzburg has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. This result represents a significant deviation for Salzburg, who entered the contest as the stronger team. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the visitors, with the market assigning Salzburg a 45.2% probability of victory, compared to 28.9% for Sturm Graz and 25.9% for a draw. Consequently, the drawn outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, Salzburg controlled

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Salzburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 61 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 49 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 L
Ried Rank: 52 W
Austria Wien Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 58 L
SK Rapid Rank: 57 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
LASK Linz Rank: 64 W
Grazer AK Rank: 52 D
Austria Wien Rank: 66 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 21 - 44
44

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
28.91%
Draw
25.88%
Away Salzburg
45.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.53
68.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Salzburg
Power Score
68.53
68.56
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
233
230

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Salzburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.04
33.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.30
34.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Salzburg -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Salzburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz
vs
Salzburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz Salzburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Salzburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sturm Graz
Salzburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 82 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
82 matches
Salzburg RBS Away
Match Record
17
Wins
44
21
Draws
21
44
Losses
17
Goals
90
Goals Scored
149
149
Goals Conceded
90
-59
Goal Difference
+59
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:20:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
M. Bignetti
Austria
40 M. Bignetti
A. Malic
Slovenia
23 A. Malic
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
Substitution
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
E. Karic
Austria
17 E. Karic
J. Hödl
Substitution
Austria
43 J. Hödl
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 (C) J. Gorenc Stankovič
R. Fosso
Substitution
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
G. Mamageishvili
Substitution
Georgia
15 G. Mamageishvili
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
A. Terzić
Serbia
3 A. Terzić
J. Schuster
Austria
44 J. Schuster
A. Chase
Japan
91 A. Chase
T. Drexler
Germany
21 T. Drexler
F. Krätzig
Substitution
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
S. Diabaté
Mali
5 S. Diabaté
M. Bidstrup
Denmark
18 (C) M. Bidstrup
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
K. Konaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
19 K. Konaté
E. Baidoo
Substitution
20 E. Baidoo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 20, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Stefan Pichler
Mattias Hartl
Alexander Harkam
Julian Weinberger

Statistics

Possession
STU
46%
RBS
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
40 Dangerous attacks 53
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 12
36 Throwins 32
15 Goal Kicks 9
91 Ball Safe 100
7 Goal Attempts 11
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
8 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 113
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

55 Successful Passes Percentage 60
296 Passes 323
163 Successful Passes 193
66 Long Passes 86
7 Key Passes 14
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
19 Successful Long Passes 30

Defensive

10 Tackles 20
8 Interceptions 12
0 Saves 2

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 21
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

40
Matteo Bignetti
Matteo Bignetti Goalkeeper
6.26
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
6.34
47
Emanuel Aiwu
Emanuel Aiwu
Defender39'
6.99
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.52
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Defender
6.56
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic Defender
7.17
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.53
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
6.13
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.47
8
Filip Rózga
Filip Rózga
Midfielder70'
6.71
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
6.31
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
Midfielder87'
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Attacker
7.1
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone
Attacker70'
6.52
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.46
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker87'
Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
6.36
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic Defender
6.96
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
6.3
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
7.09
91
Anrie Chase
Anrie Chase Defender
6.5
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder
7.07
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
7.54
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano
Attacker75'
6.74
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Midfielder
7.68
49
Moussa Yeo
Moussa Yeo
Midfielder83'
6.41
18
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup (C) Midfielder
7.38
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté Attacker
6.94
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo
Attacker85'
6.78
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo Attacker
6.53
24
Damir Redzic
Damir Redzic
Attacker75'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Anrie Chase
Unallowed field entering / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Axel Kayombo → Seedy Jatta
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Luca Weinhandl → Ryan Fosso
9th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Soumaïla Diabaté
7th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Karim Onisiwo → Karim Konaté
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Moussa Yeo → Frans Krätzig
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Anrie Chase
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Sota Kitano → Yorbe Vertessen
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Damir Redzic → Edmund Baidoo
5th Substitution
Event
Ryan Fosso
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
74'
Event
Tim Drexler
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Maurice Malone → Gizo Mamageishvili
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Filip Rózga → Jacob Peter Hödl
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+5'
Event
Emanuel Aiwu → Jeyland Mitchell
1st Substitution
39'
37'
Event
Yorbe Vertessen
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Yorbe Vertessen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Salzburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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