Stoke City vs Ipswich Town Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Championship, England
Championship
Ipswich Town
IPS
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Stoke City and Ipswich Town has finished in a high-scoring 3-3 draw. Stoke City surprised the visitors early, taking a commanding 2-0 lead into halftime before Ipswich fought back in the second half to secure a share of the points. This result represents a significant deviation for Ipswich Town, who entered the fixture as the undeniably stronger team. Pre-match market expectations gave Ipswich a commanding 58.1% chance of victory, compared to just a 19% probability for a Stoke win and 22.9% for a draw. Because the heavily favored away side failed to take all three points, the final outcome ultimately did not align with the pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, Ipswich Town dictated the tempo, holding 60% possession compared to Stoke City's 40%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to determine if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the teams' efficiency shifts remained in line with overall expectations. Furthermore, the match flowed without major disciplinary disruptions or numerical disadvantages, as no red cards were issued to either side.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Ipswich Town showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Team Power Ranking
i
25.03
31.2
Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Stoke City
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Stoke City
⚠ Proxy
Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:07:22+00:00

Match Commentary