Start vs Aalesund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sparebanken Sør Arena Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Start Start
1 – 1
Aalesund Aalesund
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Erlend Dahl Reitan - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Kristian Lonebu - 8'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Start securing a 1-0 victory over Aalesund. Heading into the fixture, Start was positioned as the pre-match favorite with an implied win probability of 41.8%, compared to a 27.9% chance for a draw and a 30.3% likelihood of an away victory. Despite being the favored side, the outcome still represented a significant deviation level of 58.2% for Start against the overall probabilities. Ultimately, the final result was fully aligned with the pre-match market expectations. Start's dominance was clearly reflected in the underlying metrics. The hosts controlled 58% of the possession, leaving Aalesund with just 42% of the ball. Start also generated substantially more scoring opportunities, recording 2.7 expected goals (xG) compared to Aalesund's 1.24 xG. Because of this comfortable 1.46 xG differential, the match outcome was

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Start showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Start A. Karadas
A. Karadas
VS
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
KFUM Rank: 57 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: 50 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Start
41.8%
Draw
27.87%
Away Aalesund
30.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.52
45.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Start
Aalesund
Power Score
46.52
45.71
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
769
973

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Start — Opponent-weighted form score
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Start Aalesund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Start

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Start ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aalesund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.98
29.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.17
31.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Start +0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Aalesund -0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Start
Aalesund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Start
vs
Aalesund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Start Aalesund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Start Aalesund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Start
Aalesund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Start Start Home
20 matches
Aalesund Aalesund Away
Match Record
6
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
6
Goals
29
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
29
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
J. Larsen
Denmark
1 J. Larsen
M. Ugland
Norway
18 M. Ugland
E. Reitan
Substitution
Norway
29 E. Reitan
J. Norheim
Norway
6 J. Norheim
K. Tønnessen
Norway
19 K. Tønnessen
T. Strannegard
Sweden
16 T. Strannegard
E. Schulze
Substitution
Norway
11 (C) E. Schulze
M. Soomets
Substitution
Estonia
14 M. Soomets
E. Segberg
Norway
23 E. Segberg
J. Cornelius
17 J. Cornelius
H. Lorentzen
Norway
20 H. Lorentzen
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
O. Gudmundsson
Substitution
Iceland
3 O. Gudmundsson
U. Valderhaug Syversen
Substitution
Norway
25 U. Valderhaug Syversen
P. Aukland
Substitution
Norway
45 P. Aukland
S. Haram
Norway
4 S. Haram
M. Andersen
Substitution
Norway
2 M. Andersen
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 (C) H. Molvær Melland
H. Hammer
Norway
6 H. Hammer
M. Christensen
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
D. Jóhannsson
Iceland
11 D. Jóhannsson
K. Lonnebu
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sparebanken Sør Arena
Capacity
14563
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Imran Tariq
Javi Jean-Marc Conny Leo Mertens
Stian Røvig Sletner
Kim Haglund

Statistics

Possession
Start
58%
Aalesund
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 11
71 Dangerous attacks 25
58 Possession 42
11 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 85
1 Assists 1
29 Throwins 20
9 Goal Attempts 5
5 Goal Kicks 13
3 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1
8 Successful Dribbles 4
20 Dribble Attempts 7
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
1 Penalties 0
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

133 Attacks 75
0 Counter Attacks 3
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

411 Passes 308
312 Successful Passes 203
76 Successful Passes Percentage 66
13 Key Passes 8
33 Successful Long Passes 19
74 Long Passes 68
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28

Defensive

10 Tackles 18
2 Saves 2
11 Interceptions 4

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Stian Røvig Sletner

Starting XI ▼

1
J. Pryts
J. Pryts Goalkeeper
6.72
6
John Norheim
John Norheim Defender
6.57
16
T. Strannegård
T. Strannegård Defender
6.72
18
M. Ugland
M. Ugland Defender
7.52
19
Kristoffer Tønnessen
Kristoffer Tønnessen Defender
7.35
29
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Erlend Dahl Reitan Defender
7.97
5
O. Jebali
O. Jebali
Defender90+2'
11
E. Schulze
E. Schulze (C) Midfielder
6.71
30
L. Gausdal
L. Gausdal
Midfielder69'
6.28
14
Markus Soomets
Markus Soomets Midfielder
6.67
27
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Defender80'
6.63
23
Erlend Segberg
Erlend Segberg Midfielder
7.35
17
J. Cornelius
J. Cornelius Attacker
6.08
20
H. Lorentzen
H. Lorentzen Attacker
6.53
Referee : Stian Røvig Sletner

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
6.62
2
Marius Andresen
Marius Andresen Defender
6.93
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø
Midfielder46'
6.44
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson Defender
6.32
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Midfielder60'
6.65
4
Simen Haram
Simen Haram Defender
7.02
25
Ulrik Syversen
Ulrik Syversen Defender
6.43
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Defender11'
6.65
45
Philip Sandvik Aukland
Philip Sandvik Aukland Defender
7.6
22
E. Engqvist
E. Engqvist
Defender84'
6.47
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer Midfielder
7.42
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland (C) Midfielder
6.49
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles
Midfielder59'
6.49
11
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson Midfielder
6.94
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
6.62
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
7.35

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
O. Jebali → Erlend Dahl Reitan
8th Substitution
90+2'
84'
Event
E. Engqvist → Philip Sandvik Aukland
7th Substitution
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure → Markus Soomets
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Kristoffer Tønnessen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
J. Cornelius
Woodwork
74'
73'
Event
Kristoffer Klaesson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
L. Gausdal → E. Schulze
5th Substitution
69'
60'
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch → Ólafur Guðmundsson
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Uba Charles → Henrik Melland
3rd Substitution
Event
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Kristoffer Nessø → Marius Andresen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Marius Andresen
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
4th Yellowcard
11'
Event
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen → Ulrik Syversen
1st Substitution
8'
Event
Kristian Lonebu
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Start exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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