St. Mirren vs Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sun, 15 Mar - 12:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
0 Winner 1
Rangers RAN
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 12:00 PM
|
Goal
Tuur Rommens - 31'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. St. Mirren 0–1 Rangers. The result saw Rangers take the points. Rangers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rangers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. McLean
S. McLean
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
F. Connor
F. Connor
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
St. Mirren S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.39
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 60 L
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Hearts Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 57 W
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Celtic Rank: 78 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Motherwell Rank: 68 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 34
34

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
14.93%
Draw
22.22%
Away Rangers
62.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.84
76.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Rangers
Power Score
55.84
76.06
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
583
83

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.91
36.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.13
16.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Mirren -1.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Rangers +1.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Mirren Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Mirren Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
20 matches
Rangers RAN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
15
3
Draws
3
15
Losses
2
Goals
14
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
14
-31
Goal Difference
+31
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:52:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
S. George
England
1 S. George
R. King
Substitution
Jamaica
5 R. King
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
J. Richardson
Substitution
England
2 J. Richardson
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
M. O'Hara
Scotland
6 (C) M. O'Hara
S. Tanser
Substitution
England
3 S. Tanser
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
D. Nlundulu
England
14 D. Nlundulu
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
T. Rommens
Substitution
Belgium
25 T. Rommens
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
J. Tavernier
England
2 (C) J. Tavernier
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
N. Raskin
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
M. Moore
England
47 M. Moore
D. Gassama
Substitution
France
23 D. Gassama
R. Naderi
Substitution
Germany
20 R. Naderi
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Substitution
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity
8016
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Steven McLean
Daniel McFarlane
Dan McFarlane
Frank Connor

Statistics

Possession
STM
46%
RAN
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 5
39 Dangerous attacks 43
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 11
11 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
3 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Dribble Attempts 20
18 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
27 Throwins 21
16 Successful Headers 23
7 Goal Kicks 4
0 Assists 1
2 Injuries 0
88 Ball Safe 92

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
88 Attacks 119

Possession

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
322 Successful Passes 373
26 Successful Long Passes 24
423 Passes 462
64 Long Passes 55
2 Key Passes 14

Defensive

25 Tackles 23
14 Interceptions 5
5 Saves 1

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 23
3 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

1
Shamal George
Shamal George Goalkeeper
7.35
5
Richard King
Richard King Defender
6.56
20
J. Young
J. Young
Attacker63'
6.66
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
7.38
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
6.57
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson Midfielder
6.39
16
A. Campbell
A. Campbell
Midfielder18'
6.27
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Midfielder
6.61
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga
Attacker77'
6.7
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Midfielder
7.36
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara (C) Midfielder
7.08
8
J. Devaney
J. Devaney Midfielder
6.86
14
Dan N'Lundulu
Dan N'Lundulu Attacker
6.5
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker
6.75
Referee : Steven McLean

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
6.87
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier (C) Defender
7.89
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
7.01
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens Defender
8.38
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma
Defender81'
6.36
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
7.3
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama Midfielder
6.81
7
Andreas Skov Olsen
Andreas Skov Olsen
Attacker58'
6.74
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
6.74
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron
Midfielder72'
6.73
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
8.04
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
6.44
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
6.23
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard
Midfielder71'
6.52
20
Ryan Naderi
Ryan Naderi Attacker
6.68
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker81'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Nasser Djiga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Var
81'
Event
Jayden Meghoma → Tuur Rommens
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Bojan Miovski → Ryan Naderi
8th Substitution
Event
Jonah Ayunga → Scott Tanser
6th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Connor Barron → Tochi Chukwuani
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Thelo Aasgaard → Youssef Chermiti
4th Substitution
Event
J. Young → Richard King
3rd Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Andreas Skov Olsen → Djeidi Gassama
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Tuur Rommens
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
A. Campbell → Jayden Richardson
1st Substitution
18'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nasser Djiga from Rangers receives a yellow card in the 92nd minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Jayden Meghoma of Rangers is being substituted in the 81st minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is being substituted for Rangers in the 81st minute.
77
Substitution Substitution
Jonah Ayunga of St Mirren has been substituted in the 77th minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Connor Barron has been substituted for Rangers in the 72nd minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Thelo Aasgaard is being substituted for Rangers in the 71st minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Jake Young has been substituted for St Mirren in the 63rd minute.
58
Substitution Substitution
Andreas Skov Olsen is being substituted for Rangers in the 58th minute.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tuur Rommens scores for Rangers in the 31st minute!

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rangers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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