Spezia vs Südtirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
Versus
Südtirol SUD
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Spezia host Südtirol in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Alberto Picco. Domestically, Spezia sit 20th in the table while Südtirol are 10th. Power ranking favours Spezia by 0.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Spezia hold a 0.7-point power advantage over Südtirol despite sitting 20th to the visitors' 10th in Serie B.
  • Form: Spezia's form score of 13.22 significantly outpaces Südtirol's 6.94.
  • Squad: Spezia's squad power rates at 18.93, edging Südtirol's 18.19.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable.
  • Transition: Transition data unavailable.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics unavailable with low confidence and proxy data used.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable.
  • Market: Projection split: Spezia 40% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29% (Δ+0%) | Südtirol 31.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Modena Rank: L
Monza Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: D
Cesena Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Pescara Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
39.95%
Draw
28.98%
Away Südtirol
31.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.93
18.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Südtirol
Power Score
18.93
18.19
League Position
20
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Südtirol

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
5 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
10
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:06:43+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Mascardi
12 D. Mascardi
A. Matějů
37 A. Matějů
M. Ruggero
4 M. Ruggero
P. Hristov
55 P. Hristov
P. Beruatto
11 P. Beruatto
C. Comotto
34 C. Comotto
A. Romano
60 A. Romano
F. Bandinelli
25 F. Bandinelli
G. Aurelio
31 G. Aurelio
G. Di Serio
20 G. Di Serio
G. Artistico
9 G. Artistico
M. Adamonis
31 M. Adamonis
F. Veseli
34 F. Veseli
N. Pietrangeli
19 N. Pietrangeli
A. Masiello
5 A. Masiello
K. Zedadka
7 K. Zedadka
D. Casiraghi
17 D. Casiraghi
S. Tronchin
18 S. Tronchin
F. Tait
21 F. Tait
S. Molina
79 S. Molina
S. Merkaj
33 S. Merkaj
E. Pecorino
9 E. Pecorino

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rosario Abisso
Vito Mastrodonato
Marco Colaianni
Paride Tremolada

Expected Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
6.87
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
6.67
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.64
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker
6.93
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker
6.63
4
Marco Ruggero
Marco Ruggero Right Back
6.79
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Left Back
6.79
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Right Back
6.83
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Central Midfield
6.7
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Left Back
6.66
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Central Midfield
6.89
Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.78
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.72
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.96
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.67
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.92
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello Right Back
6.52
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Left Back
6.6
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Centre Back
6.6
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Central Midfield
7.06
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Central Midfield
6.77
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Central Midfield
6.66

CONCLUSION

Spezia enter as marginal favorites buoyed by superior power and form metrics, poised to capitalize on home advantage against a resilient Südtirol. The 0.7-point edge underscores their underlying quality, even as league positions paint a contrasting picture. Without granular set-piece or efficiency insights, expect a cagey battle where Spezia's momentum could prove decisive in grinding out a vital win to climb from the relegation mire. Südtirol's mid-table poise demands respect, but the hosts' desperation tips the scales narrowly in their favor.

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