Southampton vs Oxford United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
2 Winner 0
Oxford United OXF
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Cyle Larin - 6'
Shea Emmanuel Charles - 13'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Southampton and Oxford United has finished, ending in a 0-0 full-time draw. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, negatively impacting Southampton. The hosts entered the contest as the clearly stronger team with a 59.3% pre-market win probability, while Oxford United held just a 15.8% chance of victory and the

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: 65 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Millwall Rank: 75 D
Birmingham City Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: 70 L
Leicester City Rank: 68 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 D
Bristol City Rank: 68 D
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
59.3%
Draw
24.9%
Away Oxford United
15.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.53
64.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Oxford United
Power Score
67.53
64.62
League Position
6
23
Global Rank
97
337

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Oxford United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oxford United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.81
35.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.00
31.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton -0.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Oxford United +0.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Oxford United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton
vs
Oxford United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Oxford United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Oxford United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Southampton
Oxford United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
1 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
England
5 (C) J. Stephens
R. Manning
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
F. Downes
England
4 F. Downes
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
T. Fellows
Substitution
England
18 T. Fellows
C. Archer
Substitution
England
19 C. Archer
F. Azaz
Substitution
England
10 F. Azaz
C. Larin
Substitution
Canada
9 C. Larin
J. Cumming
England
1 J. Cumming
J. Currie
Substitution
England
26 J. Currie
C. Brown
England
3 C. Brown
M. Helik
Poland
6 M. Helik
S. Long
England
2 S. Long
B. Spencer
Northern Ireland
15 B. Spencer
M. Peart-Harris
Substitution
England
44 M. Peart-Harris
C. Brannagan
England
8 (C) C. Brannagan
Y. Konak
Substitution
Turkey
5 Y. Konak
S. Mills
Substitution
England
17 S. Mills
W. Lankshear
Substitution
England
27 W. Lankshear

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ben Toner
Connor Brown
Mark Dwyer
Sam Mulhall

Statistics

Possession
SOU
65%
OXF
35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
39 Dangerous attacks 37
69 Possession 31
6 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

12 Successful Headers 9
2 Assists 0
8 Goal Kicks 6
13 Throwins 16
68 Ball Safe 57
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
9 Dribble Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
4 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
8 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

102 Attacks 62
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

15 Key Passes 2
607 Successful Passes 210
650 Passes 271
93 Successful Passes Percentage 77
35 Long Passes 51
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
19 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

6 Tackles 14
1 Saves 5
12 Interceptions 4

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 23
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ben Toner

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.77
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
7.44
17
Joshua Quarshie
Joshua Quarshie
Defender90+1'
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens (C) Defender
7.27
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.6
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
7.78
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
7.03
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
6.96
49
Nicholas Oyekunle
Nicholas Oyekunle
Attacker90+1'
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Midfielder
7.32
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki
Midfielder76'
6.55
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.48
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie
Midfielder59'
7.13
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
8.25
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
7.27
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart
Attacker59'
6.55
Referee : Ben Toner

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Defender
6.77
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Defender
6.75
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
6.5
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer Defender
6.26
26
Jack Currie
Jack Currie Defender
6.5
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley
Midfielder70'
6.56
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
6.52
38
Jamie Carson McDonnell
Jamie Carson McDonnell
Midfielder70'
6.29
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan (C) Midfielder
6.62
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Midfielder
6.27
10
Aidomo Emakhu
Aidomo Emakhu
Attacker88'
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Midfielder
6.65
32
Jin-woo Jeon
Jin-woo Jeon
Midfielder77'
6.57
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker
6.27
9
Mark Harris
Mark Harris
Attacker77'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicholas Oyekunle → Finn Azaz
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Joshua Quarshie → Ryan Manning
10th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Michal Helik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Aidomo Emakhu → Stanley Mills
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Jin-woo Jeon → Myles Peart-Harris
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Mark Harris → Will Lankshear
6th Substitution
Event
Kuryu Matsuki → Tom Fellows
5th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Jamie Paul Donley → Jack Currie
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Jamie Carson McDonnell → Yunus Konak
4th Substitution
Event
Ross Stewart → Cyle Larin
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Samuel Edozie → Cameron Archer
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Stanley Mills
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
13'
Event
Cyle Larin
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Nicholas Oyekunle comes on to replace Finn Azaz.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Joshua Quarshie comes on to replace Ryan Manning.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Joshua Quarshie comes on to replace Ryan Manning.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Southampton defeating Oxford United 2-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nicholas Oyekunle from Southampton took a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, aiming for the left side of the goal, but it went just wide. The assist came from Samuel Edozie.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Mark Harris.
89
Update Update
Ross Stewart from Southampton committed a foul.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michal Helik from Oxford United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Oxford United's Michal Helik committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Aidomo Emakhu is coming on to replace Stanley Mills.
87
Update Update
Jeon Jin-Woo from Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Jeon Jin-Woo from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
James Bree commits a foul against Southampton.
86
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Update Update
Sam Long from Oxford United committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Stanley Mills from Oxford United committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Shea Charles from Southampton has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Shea Charles from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Jamie Cumming, the goalkeeper for Oxford United, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Ross Stewart.
79
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
79
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
78
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jeon Jin-Woo replaces Myles Peart-Harris.
77
Update Update
Mark Harris from Oxford United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
77
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Kuryu Matsuki is coming on to replace Tom Fellows.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris comes on to replace Will Lankshear.
76
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Ross Stewart of Southampton had a close-range header that nearly found the back of the net. The chance came from a cross by Ryan Manning following a corner kick.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Ciaron Brown allowed the ball to go out.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tom Fellows from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Samuel Edozie.
73
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United committed a foul.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a deflection off Michal Helik.
73
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
71
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton strikes the crossbar with a right-footed effort from the right side of the six-yard area.
71
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play is underway. Ross Stewart from Southampton takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from James Bree, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jamie McDonnell comes on to replace Yunus Konak.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jamie Donley replaces Jack Currie.
68
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Shea Charles from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a fantastic save, reaching up to deny the attempt in the top right corner. The assist came from Flynn Downes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Will Lankshear from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Manning from Southampton takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Manning from Southampton fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Brodie Spencer allowed the ball to go out.
63
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Flynn Downes from Southampton earned a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Finn Azaz from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Shea Charles.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Ross Stewart comes on to replace Cyle Larin.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Samuel Edozie replaces Cameron Archer.
57
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
56
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Daniel Peretz from Southampton.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Jack Stephens allowed the ball to go out.
55
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Will Lankshear of Oxford United attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it was blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United attempts a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected.
54
Update Update
Cameron Archer committed a foul on a Southampton player.
54
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a foul by Ryan Manning.
49
Update Update
Offside call against Oxford United. Will Lankshear has been caught in an offside position.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Finn Azaz from Southampton attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Ryan Manning.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Southampton leading Oxford United 2-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Southampton leading Oxford United 2-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity gone begging! Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Stanley Mills, who delivered a cross.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Ciaron Brown allowed the ball to go out.
43
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went wide. The assist came from Shea Charles following a corner kick.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a deflection off Yunus Konak.
41
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton earned a free kick on the left flank.
41
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Ciaron Brown of Oxford United attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Sam Long, who delivered a cross.
36
Update Update
Cyle Larin from Southampton committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Yunus Konak from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right after the corner kick.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Ryan Manning allowed the ball to go out.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stanley Mills of Oxford United has been shown a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Manning from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Tom Fellows, who delivered a cross.
26
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United committed a foul.
22
Update Update
James Bree commits a foul on a Southampton player.
22
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert. The assist came from James Bree.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Ryan Manning from Southampton takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets intercepted.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Finn Azaz from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from James Bree.
18
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
18
Update Update
Sam Long from Oxford United committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
15
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton committed a foul.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton leads 2-0 against Oxford United. Shea Charles scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Cameron Archer following a corner kick.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ryan Manning from Southampton fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Tom Fellows, who delivered a cross.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Brodie Spencer allowed the ball to go out.
11
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Oxford United. Cyle Larin finds the net with a left-footed shot from close range, placing the ball into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Tom Fellows.
5
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Ciaron Brown from Oxford United heads the ball from the center of the box, but Daniel Peretz of Southampton makes a brilliant save in the top left corner.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a foul by Cameron Archer.
1
Update Update
Ryan Manning from Southampton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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