SK Rapid vs LASK Linz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Allianz Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
SK Rapid SCR
4 Winner 2
LASK Linz ASK
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
Jakob Schöller - 3'
Bendegúz Bolla - 33', 65' (P)
Matthias Seidl - 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Samuel Adeniran - 1'
Moses Usor - 79'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished in a 2-2 draw between SK Rapid and LASK Linz. Pre-match expectations slightly favored the visitors, with LASK Linz holding a 36.8% probability of victory compared to SK Rapid's 32.4% and a 30.8% chance of a draw. Because the stronger team failed to secure the outright win, the final result represented a significant deviation against LASK Linz, ultimately failing to align with the pre-match market. SK Rapid took a 2-1 lead into halftime but shared the points in an outcome that was not consistent with the expected goals. The hosts generated the better scoring opportunities, finishing with 1.73 xG compared to just 0.88 xG for LASK Linz. The flow of the game slightly favored SK Rapid as well, who controlled 52% of the possession to the visitors' 48%. Despite the home side out-creating their opponents and suffering a slight statistical injustice, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations. The fixture concluded cleanly without any red cards for either side, ensuring both teams retained a full squad of eleven players on the pitch to impact the final draw.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
VS
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 61 W
Austria Wien Rank: 66 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 62 W
Austria Wien Rank: 66 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 L
Ried Rank: 52 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 12 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Rapid
32.38%
Draw
30.83%
Away LASK Linz
36.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.34
64.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
LASK Linz
Power Score
61.34
64.12
League Position
5
5
Global Rank
448
355

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Rapid LASK Linz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LASK Linz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.48
31.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.25
20.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Rapid -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
LASK Linz +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
LASK Linz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Rapid
vs
LASK Linz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid LASK Linz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid LASK Linz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
SK Rapid
LASK Linz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Rapid SCR Home
46 matches
LASK Linz ASK Away
Match Record
21
Wins
13
12
Draws
12
13
Losses
21
Goals
81
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
81
+23
Goal Difference
-23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
N. Hedl
Austria
1 N. Hedl
J. Schöller
Substitution
Austria
4 J. Schöller
N. Cvetković
Serbia
55 N. Cvetković
S. Raux Yao
France
6 S. Raux Yao
B. Bolla
Substitution
Hungary
77 B. Bolla
A. Romeo
Ivory Coast
29 A. Romeo
M. Seidl
Austria
18 (C) M. Seidl
J. Horn
Substitution
Germany
38 J. Horn
N. Wurmbrand
Substitution
Austria
15 N. Wurmbrand
J. Antiste
Substitution
France
90 J. Antiste
A. Weimann
Austria
26 A. Weimann
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 (C) A. Andrade Cedeño
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
X. Mbuyamba
Netherlands
3 X. Mbuyamba
G. Bello
Substitution
United States
2 G. Bello
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
L. Kačavenda
Substitution
Croatia
44 L. Kačavenda
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
C. Lang
Substitution
Austria
27 C. Lang
S. Adeniran
Substitution
United States
7 S. Adeniran
M. Usor
Nigeria
8 M. Usor

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Allianz Stadion
Capacity
28345
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Amar Rekik
Florian Jäger
Andreas Heidenreich
Arnes Talic

Statistics

Possession
SCR
51%
ASK
49%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 13
33 Dangerous attacks 40
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 1
5 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
3 Assists 1
11 Throwins 15
7 Goal Kicks 4
13 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Successful Dribbles 6
81 Ball Safe 75
7 Goal Attempts 8
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
93 Attacks 90

Possession

8 Key Passes 8
48 Long Passes 49
15 Successful Long Passes 26
502 Passes 470
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
428 Successful Passes 399
85 Successful Passes Percentage 85

Defensive

11 Interceptions 6
13 Tackles 11
3 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
11 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.54
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller Defender
7.31
20
Ange Ahoussou
Ange Ahoussou
Defender54'
6.47
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
5.97
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
7.1
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl (C) Midfielder
7.72
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
6.92
38
Jannes Horn
Jannes Horn Midfielder
6.91
8
Lukas Grgic
Lukas Grgic
Midfielder83'
6.57
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
2
8.38
61
Furkan Demir
Furkan Demir
Defender83'
6.27
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand Attacker
6.67
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl
Attacker66'
6.62
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann Attacker
6.37
90
Janis Antiste
Janis Antiste Attacker
6.69
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen
Midfielder66'
6.33
Referee : Arnes Talic

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
5.92
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba Defender
6.44
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade (C) Defender
6.71
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
5.79
2
George Bello
George Bello Midfielder
6.34
41
Emmanuel Michael
Emmanuel Michael
Defender46'
6.07
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
6.67
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
6.24
44
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda Midfielder
6.78
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly
Midfielder75'
6.69
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
7.9
11
Maximilian Entrup
Maximilian Entrup
Attacker83'
6.66
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
7.38
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang Attacker
6.68
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic
Attacker63'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Furkan Demir
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Matthias Seidl
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
85'
Event
Furkan Demir → Bendegúz Bolla
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Lukas Grgic → Jannes Horn
9th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Maximilian Entrup → Samuel Adeniran
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Moses Usor
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jannes Horn
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
77'
75'
Event
Ismaila Coulibaly → Lukas Kacavenda
6th Substitution
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl → Nikolaus Wurmbrand
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Tobias Gulliksen → Janis Antiste
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Bendegúz Bolla
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
65'
63'
Event
Sasa Kalajdzic → Christoph Lang
3rd Substitution
Event
Ange Ahoussou → Jakob Schöller
2nd Substitution
54'
46'
Event
Emmanuel Michael → George Bello
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bendegúz Bolla
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
33'
Event
Jakob Schöller
Header / 2nd Goal
3'
1'
Event
Samuel Adeniran
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LASK Linz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Admiral Bundesliga View all league clusters