Sirius vs Hammarby Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Studenternas IP Mon, 13 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Sirius SIR
2 Winner 0
Hammarby HAM
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Isak Bjerkebo - 9'
Robbie Ure - 70'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Sirius and Hammarby is now finished, with the full-time score finishing 1-0 to Sirius. The home side took the lead in the first half and held firm after the break to claim all three points. Pre-match forecasts had anticipated a closely balanced contest, yet the result marked a significant deviation in Sirius's favor. Hammarby had been viewed as the stronger team, but they were unable to overcome the outcome, which did not align with pre-match projections. Sirius secured the win despite managing only 31 percent possession, while Hammarby dominated with 69 percent. No expected goals data was available for the match, preventing any assessment of alignment with xG, though the efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. Neither side received a red card, and no decisive events altered the flow of play beyond Sirius's early strike and subsequent defensive discipline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sirius showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Nyberg
G. Nyberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.38
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Beigi
M. Beigi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.38
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Culum
M. Culum
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.38
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
H. Karlsson
H. Karlsson
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.38
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
VS
Hammarby K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
2.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.6
2.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Degerfors Rank: W
Värnamo Rank: W
Norrköping Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mjällby Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
Degerfors Rank: D
Malmö FF Rank: W
AIK Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sirius
35.9%
Draw
27.36%
Away Hammarby
36.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sirius
-61.99%
Draw
+25.44%
Hammarby
+36.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.78
38.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sirius
Hammarby
Power Score
37.78
38.06
League Position
1
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Hammarby — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sirius Hammarby

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hammarby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hammarby
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
27.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.03
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sirius +1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Hammarby -1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Hammarby
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hammarby
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sirius Hammarby
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sirius Hammarby
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Hammarby
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sirius
vs
Hammarby
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sirius Hammarby
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sirius 0.21
Hammarby 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sirius Hammarby
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sirius 0.00
Hammarby 0.04
Sirius
Hammarby
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HAM had peak pressure around 29'.
  • SIR started the game with stronger pressure.
SIR Pressure HAM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HAM reached the top pressure at 29' (85.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sirius SIR Home
18 matches
Hammarby HAM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
10
6
Draws
6
10
Losses
2
Goals
21
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
21
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 H. Castegren
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
V. Svensson
Substitution
Denmark
24 V. Svensson
M. Heier
Sweden
10 M. Heier
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
O. Jönsson
Substitution
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
R. Ure
Scotland
9 R. Ure
I. Bjerkebo
Substitution
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
W. Hahn
Suriname
1 W. Hahn
F. Winther
Denmark
3 F. Winther
V. Eriksson
Sweden
4 V. Eriksson
I. Breze Fofana
Substitution
Guinea
6 I. Breze Fofana
E. Skoglund
Sweden
2 E. Skoglund
O. Johansson
Substitution
Sweden
11 O. Johansson
M. Karlsson
Sweden
8 M. Karlsson
V. Lind
Substitution
Denmark
9 V. Lind
N. Besara
Sweden
20 N. Besara
M. Madjed
Substitution
Sweden
26 M. Madjed
M. Kabore
Substitution
Ivory Coast
29 M. Kabore

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Studenternas IP
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Glenn Nyberg
Mahbod Beigi
Mehmet Culum
Henrik Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
SIR
36%
HAM
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
10 Shots 16
48 Dangerous attacks 53
31 Possession 69
3 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 81
13 Throwins 20
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
18 Goal Kicks 3
15 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Assists 0
6 Goal Attempts 9
5 Successful Dribbles 7
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

67 Attacks 129
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 90
298 Passes 685
68 Long Passes 28
5 Key Passes 13
216 Successful Passes 617
28 Successful Long Passes 11
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

10 Interceptions 8
44 Duels Won 54
13 Tackles 21
4 Saves 2

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 19
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

14 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
7.65
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
7.27
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Defender
7.21
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
6.71
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
6.89
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
6.93
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson Midfielder
7.53
8
Matthias Nartey
Matthias Nartey
Midfielder71'
6.86
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
7.41
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Attacker
7.48
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom
Defender89'
7.17
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Attacker
7.12
7
Joakim Persson
Joakim Persson
Attacker71'
6.41
Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Warner Hahn
Warner Hahn Goalkeeper
8.26
2
Hampus Skoglund
Hampus Skoglund Defender
7.06
3
Frederik Winther
Frederik Winther Defender
7.07
4
Victor Eriksson
Victor Eriksson Defender
7.15
6
Ibrahima Fofana
Ibrahima Fofana Defender
6.9
5
Tesfaldet Tekie
Tesfaldet Tekie
Midfielder63'
6.81
8
Markus Karlsson
Markus Karlsson Midfielder
7.44
9
Victor Lind
Victor Lind Midfielder
6.97
15
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Oliver Jordan Hagen
Attacker77'
6.83
11
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
Oscar Johansson Schellhas Midfielder
6.87
16
Noah Persson
Noah Persson
Defender77'
6.45
20
Nahir Besara
Nahir Besara Midfielder
8.61
26
Montader Madjed
Montader Madjed Midfielder
6.72
28
Frank Junior Adjei
Frank Junior Adjei
Midfielder82'
6.61
29
Elohim Kaboré
Elohim Kaboré Attacker
6.52
7
Paulos Abraham
Paulos Abraham
Attacker63'
9.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Victor Ekstrom → Isak Bjerkebo
8th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Frank Junior Adjei → Montader Madjed
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Victor Eriksson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Oliver Jordan Hagen → Victor Lind
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Noah Persson → Oscar Johansson Schellhas
6th Substitution
Event
Joakim Persson → Neo Jönsson
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Matthias Nartey → Victor Svensson
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Robbie Ure
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
70'
66'
Event
Hampus Skoglund
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Tesfaldet Tekie → Ibrahima Fofana
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Paulos Abraham → Elohim Kaboré
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sirius exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews