Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Hillsborough Stadium Tue, 10 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Sheffield Wednesday SHF
1 – 1
Watford WAT
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 7:45 PM
Jerry Yates - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Vivaldo Semedo - 90'

CONTEXT

The match between Sheffield Wednesday and Watford has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a scoreless first half, both sides finally found the net to split the points. Watford dominated the ball, recording 66 percent possession compared to a mere 34 percent for the hosts. With no red cards issued to either side, the game was played evenly at full strength. This result represents a

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Watford showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Bell
E. Bell
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
A. Kitchen
A. Kitchen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
G. Byrne
G. Byrne
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
S. Hudson
S. Hudson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Sheffield Wednesday H. Pedersen
H. Pedersen
VS
Watford E. Still
E. Still
0.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Preston North End Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Hull City Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: D
Millwall Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 7 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sheffield Wednesday
11.89%
Draw
21.28%
Away Watford
66.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.23
24.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sheffield Wednesday
Watford
Power Score
12.23
24.97
League Position
24
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sheffield Wednesday — Opponent-weighted form score
Watford — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sheffield Wednesday Watford

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sheffield Wednesday

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Watford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sheffield Wednesday ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Watford
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.79
32.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.95
37.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sheffield Wednesday +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Watford -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sheffield Wednesday
Watford
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sheffield Wednesday ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Watford
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sheffield Wednesday Watford
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sheffield Wednesday Watford
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sheffield Wednesday
Watford
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sheffield Wednesday SHF Home
7 matches
Watford WAT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
4
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:05:24+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Hillsborough Stadium
Capacity
34835
Attendance
19653
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Elliot Bell
Andrew Kitchen
George Byrne
Shaun Hudson

Statistics

Possession
SHF
38%
WAT
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 4
11 Shots 19
37 Dangerous attacks 55
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Injuries 2
76 Ball Safe 85
1 Assists 1
6 Goal Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 8
13 Successful Headers 24
17 Throwins 21
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
0 Hit Woodwork 1
9 Dribble Attempts 16
7 Successful Dribbles 11
2 Substitutions 5

Attacking

71 Attacks 111
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

69 Successful Passes Percentage 86
293 Passes 575
19 Successful Long Passes 28
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
202 Successful Passes 492
62 Long Passes 55
10 Key Passes 16

Defensive

44 Duels Won 56
9 Interceptions 7
18 Tackles 5
4 Saves 2

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Vivaldo Semedo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
84'
Event
Vivaldo Semedo → Nestory Irankunda
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Tom Ince → Giorgi Chakvetadze
6th Substitution
Event
Svante Ingelsson
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
81'
76'
Event
Pierre Ekwah
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Dominic Iorfa → Cole McGhee
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Charlie McNeill → Jerry Yates
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Tayo Adaramola
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
68'
Event
James Abankwah
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Edoardo Bove → Edo Kayembe
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Pierre Ekwah → Nampalys Mendy
3rd Substitution
Event
Jaden Heskey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
7th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Jerry Yates
Header / 1st Goal
54'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Saba Goglichidze
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Marc Bola → Jérémy Pétris
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Sheffield Wednesday and Watford.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Sheffield Wednesday 1, Watford 1. Vivaldo Semedo scores for Watford, firing a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Imrân Louza.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push is underway. Vivaldo Semedo from Watford takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Pierce Charles, who is positioned centrally in the goal for Sheffield Wednesday.
90
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Pierre Ekwah from Watford takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is successfully stopped by Pierce Charles of Sheffield Wednesday, who makes a save in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Tom Ince.
90
Update Update
Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Stephen Mfuni from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Edoardo Bove from Watford was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Tayo Adaramola from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Stephen Mfuni after a quick counterattack.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Tom Ince is coming on to replace Giorgi Chakvetadze.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Vivaldo Semedo is coming on to replace Nestory Irankunda.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
81
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
81
Update Update
There's a stoppage in the game due to an injury to Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Svante Ingelsson of Sheffield Wednesday has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford, following a foul by Dominic Iorfa.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierre Ekwah from Watford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
75
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Charlie McNeill from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Egil Selvik from Watford makes a save in the top left corner. The assist came from Jaden Heskey.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Dominic Iorfa is coming on to replace Cole McGhee.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Charlie McNeill is coming on to replace Jerry Yates.
71
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford earned a free kick in an offensive position.
71
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Pierre Ekwah from Watford takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Pierce Charles of Sheffield Wednesday, who keeps it out at the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Luca Kjerrumgaard.
71
Update Update
Jamal Lowe committed a foul against Sheffield Wednesday.
70
Update Update
Pierre Ekwah from Watford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Jarvis Thornton from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Tayo Adaramola from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Tayo Adaramola from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tayo Adaramola of Sheffield Wednesday has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
James Abankwah committed a foul against Watford.
68
Update Update
Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
68
Update Update
Edoardo Bove from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Abankwah from Watford has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
James Abankwah committed a foul against Watford.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Edoardo Bove of Watford takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Nestory Irankunda.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Liam Palmer allowed it to go out.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after a play that resulted in a deflection off Gabriel Otegbayo.
66
Update Update
Offside call against Sheffield Wednesday. Jerry Yates has been caught offside.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Pierre Ekwah comes on to replace Nampalys Mendy.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Edoardo Bove replaces Edo Kayembe.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaden Heskey of Sheffield Wednesday has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Marc Bola from Watford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaden Heskey of Sheffield Wednesday has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
59
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a corner kick after Edo Kayembe allowed the ball to go out of play.
58
Attempt Attempt
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday attempts a shot with his right foot from the center of the penalty area, but it's deflected away.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sheffield Wednesday after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jerry Yates.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sheffield Wednesday takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Watford. Jerry Yates scores with a header from close range.
51
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Egil Selvik of Watford makes a save at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Jarvis Thornton.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is denied. Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday tries to score with his left foot from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The cross that set him up came from Tayo Adaramola.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Edo Kayembe from Watford takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Giorgi Chakvetadze.
45
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Sheffield Wednesday 0, Watford 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nestory Irankunda from Watford takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Imrân Louza.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jerry Yates of Sheffield Wednesday took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jaden Heskey.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway, with the score still tied at Sheffield Wednesday 0, Watford 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Saba Goglichidze from Watford attempted a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Imrân Louza.
43
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
43
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
43
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
40
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday.
39
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a corner kick after Saba Goglichidze allowed the ball to go out of play.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
38
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
James Abankwah committed a foul against a player from Watford.
36
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Watford after Pierce Charles allowed the ball to go out.
36
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford takes a left-footed shot from close range, but Pierce Charles of Sheffield Wednesday makes a fantastic save, denying him at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Marc Bola.
35
Update Update
Nampalys Mendy from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Jarvis Thornton from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Gabriel Otegbayo from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Offside call against Sheffield Wednesday. Jerry Yates has been caught in an offside position.
31
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford commits a handball.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saba Goglichidze from Watford has been shown a yellow card for handling the ball.
31
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford commits a handball.
30
Update Update
Saba Goglichidze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
29
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday took a right-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Svante Ingelsson following a corner kick.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Edo Kayembe.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Svante Ingelsson, who delivered a cross.
28
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a corner kick after Imrân Louza allowed the ball to go out of play.
27
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
26
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Saba Goglichidze from Watford.
25
Update Update
Marc Bola from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Marc Bola from Watford earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Marc Bola comes on to replace Jeremy Petris due to an injury.
23
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has earned a corner kick after James Abankwah allowed the ball to go out of play.
21
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
19
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Jeremy Petris from Watford.
18
Update Update
Offside call against Sheffield Wednesday. Jamal Lowe has been caught in an offside position.
17
Update Update
Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford committed a foul.
17
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford attempted a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Nestory Irankunda.
17
Update Update
Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
James Abankwah commits a foul for Watford.
14
Update Update
Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Watford after Tayo Adaramola allowed the ball to go out.
10
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that just went wide. The setup came from Giorgi Chakvetadze, who delivered a great cross.
7
Attempt Attempt
Edo Kayembe from Watford takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area and strikes the right post. The assist came from Luca Kjerrumgaard, who set him up with a header.
7
Update Update
Stephen Mfuni from Watford earned a free kick in an attacking position.
7
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Jeremy Petris from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Jeremy Petris from Watford was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
3
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Giorgi Chakvetadze from Watford has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Watford exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews