Sevilla vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Sat, 21 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga
Sevilla SEV
0 Winner 2
Valencia VAL
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Hugo Duro - 38'
Largie Ramazani - 45+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Sevilla and Valencia has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. Coming into the fixture, Sevilla held the edge in the pre-match market with an implied 42.6% probability of victory, compared to a 29.9% chance for a draw and a 27.5% chance for an away win. Ultimately, this full-time stalemate represented a significant deviation from pre-game expectations, favoring the underdog, Valencia. On the pitch, Sevilla controlled the tempo, holding 59% of the possession while leaving Valencia with 41% of the ball. Despite Sevilla's territorial dominance, Valencia proved to be the stronger team in chance creation. The visitors generated 1.05 expected goals (xG) compared to Sevilla's quiet 0.63 xG. Team finishing efficiency was entirely in line with these underlying metrics, and the match concluded smoothly without any red cards impacting the overall flow of play. While the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market heavily backing Sevilla, the resulting draw was consistent with the final xG data. Valencia successfully neutralized the home side's possession advantage, utilizing their limited time on the ball to secure a hard-fought point on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Valencia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Sevilla M. Almeyda
M. Almeyda
VS
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 76 D
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Getafe Rank: 76 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Girona Rank: 76 D
Mallorca Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 84 L
Levante Rank: 73 W
Real Madrid Rank: 95 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
Espanyol Rank: 74 W
Getafe Rank: 76 W
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 11 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sevilla
42.61%
Draw
29.89%
Away Valencia
27.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.7
78.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sevilla
Valencia
Power Score
73.7
78.47
League Position
16
12
Global Rank
135
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sevilla Valencia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Valencia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.37
23.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.90
27.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sevilla +0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Valencia -0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Valencia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sevilla
vs
Valencia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sevilla Valencia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sevilla Valencia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sevilla
Valencia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sevilla SEV Home
48 matches
Valencia VAL Away
Match Record
22
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
22
Goals
58
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
58
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
C. Azpilicueta Tanco
Substitution
Spain
3 C. Azpilicueta Tanco
N. Gudelj
Serbia
6 (C) N. Gudelj
Kike Salas
Spain
4 Kike Salas
G. Suazo Urbina
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
J. Sánchez Velasco
Substitution
Spain
16 J. Sánchez Velasco
L. Agoume
Substitution
France
18 L. Agoume
D. Sow
Substitution
Switzerland
20 D. Sow
R. Vargas
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Vargas
N. Maupay
France
17 N. Maupay
A. Sánchez Sánchez
Substitution
Chile
10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
J. Gayá Peña
Substitution
Spain
14 (C) J. Gayá Peña
E. Cömert
Switzerland
24 E. Cömert
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
U. Núñez Gestoso
Spain
4 U. Núñez Gestoso
D. Ribeiro Almeida
Substitution
Portugal
10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
J. Guerra Moreno
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
L. Ramazani
Substitution
Belgium
17 L. Ramazani
H. Duro
Substitution
Spain
9 H. Duro
L. Rioja González
Spain
11 L. Rioja González

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity
42714
Attendance
35031
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pablo Morales Moreno
Víctor García Verdura
Julián Villaseñor Julián
Eliana Fernández González

Statistics

Possession
SEV
58%
VAL
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 1
63 Dangerous attacks 16
59 Possession 41
1 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 4
12 Dribble Attempts 14
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
4 Goal Kicks 9
23 Throwins 22
19 Successful Headers 16
6 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
3 Injuries 4
7 Goal Attempts 7
78 Ball Safe 99

Attacking

120 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

49 Long Passes 59
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 22
416 Successful Passes 266
494 Passes 351
84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
28 Successful Long Passes 13
9 Key Passes 8

Defensive

18 Tackles 16
2 Saves 2
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 6
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Víctor García Verdura

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.44
3
César Azpilicueta
César Azpilicueta Defender
6.72
9
Akor Adams
Akor Adams
Attacker37'
6.56
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.59
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj (C) Defender
6.93
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
7.07
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez Midfielder
6.44
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona
Defender46'
6.77
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.42
19
Batista Mendy
Batista Mendy
Midfielder46'
7.37
20
Djibril Sow
Djibril Sow Midfielder
7.1
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín
Defender73'
6.47
10
Alexis Sánchez
Alexis Sánchez Attacker
6.44
7
Isaac Romero
Isaac Romero
Attacker46'
6.9
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas Attacker
6.48
36
Oso
Oso
Defender71'
6.45
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay Attacker
6.36
Referee : Víctor García Verdura

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.83
4
Unai Núñez
Unai Núñez Defender
6.9
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
7.2
14
José Gayà
José Gayà (C) Defender
6.33
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez
Defender26'
6.67
24
Eray Cömert
Eray Cömert Defender
7.26
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
7.33
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Midfielder
6.71
18
Pepelu
Pepelu
Midfielder89'
10
André Almeida
André Almeida Midfielder
7.22
16
Diego López
Diego López
Attacker80'
6.45
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro Attacker
6.89
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq
Attacker67'
6.47
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Attacker
6.76
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Attacker
7.35
15
Lucas Beltrán
Lucas Beltrán
Midfielder66'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Neal Maupay
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
89'
Event
Pepelu → Javi Guerra
11th Substitution
80'
Event
Diego López → André Almeida
10th Substitution
74'
Event
Lucas Beltrán
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Andrés Castrín → Djibril Sow
9th Substitution
73'
Event
Oso → Rubén Vargas
8th Substitution
71'
67'
Event
Umar Sadiq → Hugo Duro
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Lucas Beltrán → Largie Ramazani
6th Substitution
Event
José Ángel Carmona → Juanlu Sánchez
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Isaac Romero → Alexis Sánchez
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Batista Mendy → Lucien Agoumé
4th Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Largie Ramazani
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
Event
Hugo Duro
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Akor Adams → César Azpilicueta
2nd Substitution
37'
Event
Lucien Agoumé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
26'
Event
Jesús Vázquez → José Gayà
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Neal Maupay of Sevilla has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Sevilla 0, Valencia 2.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Akor Adams has been caught in an offside position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams from Sevilla attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot was intercepted. The cross was delivered by Gabriel Suazo.
90
Update Update
Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive push from Sevilla as Batista Mendy takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Stole Dimitrievski, who reaches up to deny the effort in the top right corner. Isaac Romero provided the assist for this play.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Pepelu replaces Javi Guerra due to an injury.
88
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Isaac Romero from Sevilla attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert.
86
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Unai Núñez from Valencia heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended. The assist came from Eray Cömert.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after a play that resulted in José Ángel Carmona giving it away.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Oso from Sevilla takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Isaac Romero.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Diego López comes on to replace André Almeida.
79
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Javi Guerra from Valencia earned a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Corner Corner
Another offensive push here. Isaac Romero from Sevilla takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia makes a great save, denying it in the bottom right corner.
77
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
75
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Stole Dimitrievski from Valencia.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Beltrán of Valencia has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Andrés Castrín comes on to replace Djibril Sow.
73
Update Update
Lucas Beltrán from Valencia committed a foul.
71
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Djibril Sow of Sevilla attempted a header from the center of the box but couldn't find the target. The cross was delivered by Rubén Vargas.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Oso comes on to replace Rubén Vargas.
68
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
68
Update Update
Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla committed a foul.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Umar Sadiq comes on to replace Hugo Duro.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Lucas Beltrán comes on to replace Largie Ramazani.
59
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams had a great opportunity for Sevilla, firing a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack, but it went wide.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Isaac Romero from Sevilla attempted a long-range shot with his left foot from the right side.
55
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Batista Mendy from Sevilla committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Isaac Romero from Sevilla takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from José Ángel Carmona.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Batista Mendy from Sevilla took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Nemanja Gudelj.
51
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Batista Mendy from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Akor Adams.
51
Update Update
César Tárrega from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Batista Mendy from Sevilla committed a foul.
50
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla committed a foul.
50
Update Update
André Almeida from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Eray Cömert from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after José Ángel Carmona allowed the ball to go out.
47
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla committed a foul.
47
Update Update
André Almeida from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Hugo Duro from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sevilla 0, Valencia 2. Largie Ramazani finds the net for Valencia with a left-footed shot from close range, placing it perfectly into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Luis Rioja, who delivered a precise cross.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Sevilla 0, Valencia 2.
45
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Batista Mendy has been replaced by Lucien Agoumé.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: José Ángel Carmona replaces Juanlu Sánchez.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Isaac Romero replaces Alexis Sánchez.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: José Ángel Carmona replaces Juanlu Sánchez.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Luis Rioja from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup for the shot came from Largie Ramazani.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Guido Rodríguez from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from André Almeida.
42
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Jesús Vázquez from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Largie Ramazani.
42
Update Update
Jesús Vázquez from Valencia committed a foul.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valencia takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Sevilla. Hugo Duro heads the ball from the center of the box right into the middle of the goal.
38
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push is underway. Largie Ramazani from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Odysseas Vlachodimos from Sevilla makes a save, diving to his right. The assist came from Hugo Duro.
37
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Akor Adams comes on to replace César Azpilicueta.
34
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after Kike Salas allowed the ball to go out.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Odysseas Vlachodimos allowed the ball to go out of play.
30
Update Update
André Almeida from Valencia committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla earned a free kick in an offensive position.
29
Update Update
Eray Cömert of Valencia was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
29
Update Update
Rubén Vargas from Sevilla committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Lucien Agoumé from Sevilla committed a foul.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucien Agoumé of Sevilla has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
28
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia earned a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
26
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Jesús Vázquez comes on to replace José Gayà due to an injury.
25
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to José Gayà from Valencia.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Rubén Vargas has been flagged for being in an offside position.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Guido Rodríguez from Valencia attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Largie Ramazani.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Sevilla. Gabriel Suazo is caught in an offside position.
20
Update Update
Neal Maupay of Sevilla was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
20
Update Update
Neal Maupay from Sevilla was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
19
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
18
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla.
18
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to José Gayà from Valencia.
17
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
14
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
14
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to José Gayà from Valencia.
11
Update Update
Unai Núñez from Valencia committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez of Sevilla earned a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. César Azpilicueta from Sevilla attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right following a corner kick.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla after Unai Núñez allowed the ball to go out.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rubén Vargas from Sevilla fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
8
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
7
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla.
7
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
2
Update Update
Unai Núñez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla committed a foul.
2
Update Update
José Gayà from Valencia committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Valencia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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