Sassuolo vs Cagliari Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sat, 4 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Sassuolo SAS
2 Winner 1
Cagliari CAG
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Ulisses Garcia - 50'
Andrea Pinamonti - 78'
Goal
|
Goal
Sebastiano Esposito - 30' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sassuolo 2–0 Cagliari. The result saw Sassuolo take the points. Sassuolo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sassuolo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Chiffi
D. Chiffi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Cecconi
D. Cecconi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Garzelli
D. Garzelli
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
L. Massimi
L. Massimi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
VS
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: 84 D
Bologna Rank: 79 L
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Atalanta Rank: 86 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Udinese Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Pisa Rank: 64 L
Como Rank: 85 L
Parma Rank: 71 D
Lazio Rank: 81 D
Lecce Rank: 69 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sassuolo
44.68%
Draw
30.18%
Away Cagliari
25.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.05
68.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Power Score
62.05
68.8
League Position
10
16
Global Rank
110
214

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sassuolo Cagliari

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cagliari
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.30
26.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.40
21.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sassuolo -0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Cagliari +0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
Cagliari
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cagliari
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sassuolo Cagliari
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sassuolo Cagliari
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
Cagliari
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sassuolo
vs
Cagliari
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sassuolo Cagliari
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sassuolo 0.27
Cagliari 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sassuolo Cagliari
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sassuolo 0.02
Cagliari 0.06
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sassuolo SAS Home
21 matches
Cagliari CAG Away
Match Record
5
Wins
6
10
Draws
10
6
Losses
5
Goals
31
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
31
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Murić
Kosovo
49 A. Murić
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
F. Romagna
Substitution
Italy
19 F. Romagna
J. Idzes
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
I. Koné
Substitution
Canada
90 I. Koné
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
D. Berardi
Italy
10 D. Berardi
C. Volpato
Substitution
Italy
7 C. Volpato
A. Lauriente
Substitution
France
45 A. Lauriente
A. Pinamonti
Substitution
Italy
99 A. Pinamonti
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
J. Rodríguez Camejo
Uruguay
15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 Y. Mina González
J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Substitution
Portugal
32 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
A. Obert
Slovakia
33 A. Obert
A. Deiola
Italy
14 A. Deiola
G. Gaetano
Substitution
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
M. Adopo
Substitution
France
8 M. Adopo
M. Palestra
Italy
2 M. Palestra
M. Folorunsho
Substitution
Italy
90 M. Folorunsho
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity
21584
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Chiffi
Dario Cecconi
Dario Garzelli
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
SAS
49%
CAG
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 8
33 Dangerous attacks 44
50 Possession 50
2 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
17 Dribble Attempts 19
14 Throwins 12
8 Goal Kicks 9
8 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Successful Headers 11
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0
8 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
54 Ball Safe 60

Attacking

89 Attacks 97
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

13 Successful Long Passes 16
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
433 Passes 440
364 Successful Passes 364
37 Long Passes 37
3 Key Passes 6

Defensive

15 Tackles 19
5 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 0
38 Duels Won 49

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
8 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

14 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

49
Arijanet Murić
Arijanet Murić Goalkeeper
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
19
Filippo Romagna
Filippo Romagna Defender
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly
Defender58'
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato Midfielder
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic
Midfielder58'
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi Midfielder
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Midfielder
50
Darryl Bakola
Darryl Bakola
Midfielder69'
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani
Midfielder69'
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti Attacker
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola
Attacker82'
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
15
Juan Rodríguez
Juan Rodríguez Defender
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina Defender
32
Zé Pedro
Zé Pedro Defender
9
Semih Kılıçsoy
Semih Kılıçsoy
Attacker83'
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra Midfielder
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Midfielder
28
Gabriele Zappa
Gabriele Zappa
Defender90'
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
25
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ibrahim Sulemana
Midfielder75'
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola Midfielder
33
Adam Obert
Adam Obert Midfielder
90
Michael Folorunsho
Michael Folorunsho Attacker
29
Gennaro Borrelli
Gennaro Borrelli
Attacker74'
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Attacker
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Gabriele Zappa → Michel Adopo
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Paul Mendy → Sebastiano Esposito
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Semih Kılıçsoy → Zé Pedro
8th Substitution
Event
M'Bala Nzola → Andrea Pinamonti
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Andrea Pinamonti
1st Yellowcard
79'
Event
Andrea Pinamonti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
75'
Event
Ibrahim Sulemana → Gianluca Gaetano
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Gennaro Borrelli → Michael Folorunsho
5th Substitution
Event
Luca Lipani → Ismaël Koné
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Darryl Bakola → Armand Laurienté
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Woyo Coulibaly → Filippo Romagna
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Nemanja Matic → Cristian Volpato
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Ulisses Garcia
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Sebastiano Esposito
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
28'
Event
Luca Lipani
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Paul Mendy from Cagliari won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Corner Corner
Darryl Bakola from Sassuolo had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, just missing the top right corner.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Gabriele Zappa replaces Michel Adopo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Adam Obert from Cagliari shot with his left foot from a difficult position on the left and came very close to scoring.
90
Attempt Attempt
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, just missing the goal. Darryl Bakola provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Sassuolo winning 2-1 against Cagliari.
90
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt from Sassuolo won a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Paul Mendy of Cagliari.
89
Corner Corner
Cagliari wins a corner after Woyo Coulibaly concedes.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Paul Mendy replaces Sebastiano Esposito.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by M'Bala Nzola of Sassuolo.
88
Update Update
Yerry Mina of Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Woyo Coulibaly of Sassuolo.
84
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Darryl Bakola of Sassuolo.
83
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Semih Kiliçsoy replaces Zé Pedro.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: M'Bala Nzola replaces Andrea Pinamonti.
81
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick on the left wing.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Marco Palestra of Cagliari.
80
Update Update
Yerry Mina from Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo commits a foul.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrea Pinamonti of Sassuolo receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
79
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito of Cagliari commits a handball.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sassuolo leads Cagliari 2-1. Andrea Pinamonti scores for Sassuolo with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Darryl Bakola.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo.
76
Update Update
Gennaro Borrelli from Cagliari won a free kick in the attacking area.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Ibrahim Sulemana replaces Gianluca Gaetano.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Gennaro Borrelli replaces Michael Folorunsho.
70
Update Update
Luca Lipani of Sassuolo is caught offside.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Luca Lipani replaces Ismaël Koné due to injury.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Darryl Bakola replaces Armand Laurienté.
67
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Gaetano of Cagliari.
67
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick in an attacking position.
66
Update Update
Alessandro Deiola from Cagliari misses a chance with a header from the center of the box.
60
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Woyo Coulibaly from Sassuolo.
60
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Michael Folorunsho of Cagliari.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo shot with his left foot from outside the box.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Nemanja Matic replaces Cristian Volpato.
58
Attempt Attempt
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but missing to the left.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Woyo Coulibaly replaces Filippo Romagna.
55
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul by Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Juan Rodríguez of Cagliari.
54
Update Update
Andrea Pinamonti of Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sebastian Walukiewicz from Sassuolo shot with his right foot from outside the box, but it went wide to the left.
52
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola from Cagliari missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. Gianluca Gaetano provided the assist.
50
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Sassuolo is awarded a corner after Michael Folorunsho concedes it.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ulisses Garcia scores for Sassuolo with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner. The match is now 1-1 against Cagliari.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Juan Rodríguez of Cagliari.
48
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick in an attacking position.
46
Update Update
Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Michel Adopo of Cagliari.
45
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Deiola of Cagliari.
45
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner after Zé Pedro concedes.
45
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Sassuolo 0, Cagliari 1.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Sassuolo trailing Cagliari 1-0.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Yerry Mina - Cagliari.
43
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo won a free kick on the left wing.
42
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola from Cagliari attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is saved.
38
Update Update
Offside called against Sassuolo. Sebastian Walukiewicz is in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Ulisses Garcia of Sassuolo.
35
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Cagliari is called offside. Michael Folorunsho is in an offside position.
32
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari won a free kick on the right wing.
32
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari won a free kick on the right wing.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sebastiano Esposito scores for Cagliari with a right-footed shot into the left corner. The match stands at 0-1 in favor of Cagliari.
28
Update Update
Jay Idzes of Sassuolo concedes a penalty for handball in the penalty area.
26
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Cagliari.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Gaetano of Cagliari.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Gaetano of Cagliari.
22
Update Update
Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
21
Corner Corner
Cagliari wins a corner after Jay Idzes concedes.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Juan Rodríguez of Cagliari.
17
Update Update
Andrea Pinamonti of Sassuolo won a free kick on the right wing.
15
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari has a shot from the center of the box, but it's blocked.
15
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right.
10
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Deiola's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Michel Adopo provided the assist.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Ulisses Garcia of Sassuolo.
9
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari won a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Yerry Mina of Cagliari.
7
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andrea Pinamonti from Sassuolo.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Cristian Volpato of Sassuolo.
6
Update Update
Marco Palestra of Cagliari won a free kick in defense.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Kristian Thorstvedt from Sassuolo shot with his left foot from the left side of the box.
3
Attempt Attempt
Michel Adopo from Cagliari attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Arijanet Muric from Sassuolo makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Gianluca Gaetano.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrea Pinamonti of Sassuolo.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andrea Pinamonti of Sassuolo.
1
Update Update
Alessandro Deiola from Cagliari won a free kick in the attacking area.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Alessandro Deiola of Cagliari.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sassuolo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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