Salzburg vs SK Rapid Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Red Bull Arena
Sun, 15 Mar - 1:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Salzburg
RBS
0
1
1
SK Rapid
SCR
Full Time
Sun, 15 Mar
1:30 PM
|
Matthias Seidl - 69'
Joane Gadou 67'
|
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
Sorry, standings could not be loaded right now.
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match has officially finished with SK Rapid securing a 1-0 away victory against Salzburg after a goalless first half. Salzburg entered the fixture as the clear favorites, boasting a 54.8% pre-match probability of winning, compared to a 24.5% chance of a draw and just 20.7% for the visiting side. Consequently, SK Rapid's triumph represents a significant deviation from market expectations, defying the initial odds in a major upset. Possession was tightly contested throughout the game, with Salzburg holding a narrow edge at 51% compared to SK Rapid's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation. However, the dynamics of the match were heavily influenced by a red card issued to Salzburg. This sending-off created a notable red card distortion in the second half, crippling the home team's structural balance. Ultimately, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Yet, despite the surprise result, the post-match efficiency shift remained in line with the actual events on the pitch, as SK Rapid effectively utilized their numerical advantage to break the deadlock and claim the win.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: SK Rapid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Hameter
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
T. Kaplan
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
M. El Sadany
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
A. Untergasser
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
D. Beichler
VS
J. Hoff Thorup
1.63
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.06
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid
Rank: 57
L
Hartberg
Rank: 60
D
LASK Linz
Rank: 66
W
Grazer AK
Rank: 49
D
Austria Wien
Rank: 67
L
Wolfsberger AC
Rank: 63
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg
Rank: 69
W
Rheindorf Altach
Rank: 53
D
Wolfsberger AC
Rank: 63
W
Austria Wien
Rank: 67
L
Hartberg
Rank: 60
D
Blau-Weiß Linz
Rank: 50
D
44
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
44 - 20 - 16
16
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Salzburg
54.79%
Draw
24.51%
SK Rapid
20.7%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.71
59.17
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
SK Rapid
Power Score
67.71
59.17
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
229
485
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Salzburg
—
Opponent-weighted form score
SK Rapid
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Salzburg SK Rapid
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Salzburg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
SK Rapid
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Salzburg
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
SK Rapid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.20
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Salzburg
+1.34
Efficiency Index
vs
SK Rapid
-1.34
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
SK Rapid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Salzburg
vs
SK Rapid
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Salzburg
SK Rapid
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00
vs
+0.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Salzburg
SK Rapid
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Salzburg
SK Rapid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Salzburg
RBS
Home
22
matches
SK Rapid
SCR
Away
Match Record
14
Wins
3
5
Draws
5
3
Losses
14
Goals
41
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
41
+19
Goal Difference
-19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:36:17+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
1 A. Schlager
21 T. Drexler
23 K. Gadou
44 J. Schuster
13 F. Krätzig
18 (C) M. Bidstrup
A. Terzić
#383'
5 S. Diabaté
Y. Vertessen
#1163'
24 D. Redzic
C. Bischoff
#762'
27 K. Alajbegović
T. Trummer
#3770'
25 O. Lukic
K. Onisiwo
#983'
19 K. Konaté
1 N. Hedl
6 S. Raux Yao
55 N. Cvetković
K. Ahoussou
#2053'
4 J. Schöller
38 J. Horn
T. Børkeeiet
#1690+3'
29 A. Romeo
P. Dahl
#1052'
8 L. Grgic
77 B. Bolla
18 (C) M. Seidl
T. Gulliksen
#1783'
15 N. Wurmbrand
J. Antiste
#9083'
26 A. Weimann
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
47069
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Markus Hameter
Thomas Kaplan
Mohamed El Sadany
Achim Untergasser
Statistics
Possession
RBS
51%
SCR
49%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
1
3
Big Chances Created
3
8
Shots
1
59
Dangerous attacks
27
51
Possession
49
3
Corners
3
12
Free kicks
16
1
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
24
Dribble Attempts
21
46
Successful Dribbles Percentage
43
25
Throwins
13
79
Ball Safe
88
11
Successful Dribbles
9
4
Goal Kicks
12
9
Goal Attempts
6
5
Substitutions
5
1
Injuries
1
0
Hit Woodwork
1
Attacking
129
Attacks
73
3
Big Chances Missed
3
Possession
33
Successful Long Passes Percentage
53
83
Successful Passes Percentage
85
449
Passes
441
13
Successful Long Passes
24
11
Key Passes
8
39
Long Passes
45
371
Successful Passes
377
Defensive
13
Interceptions
11
2
Saves
2
19
Tackles
22
Build-up
3
Accurate Crosses
5
17
Total Crosses
12
Discipline
15
Fouls
12
1
Offsides
1
Lineup
Referee :
Markus Hameter
Manager ▼
D. Beichler
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Alexander Schlager
Goalkeeper
6.51 13
Frans Krätzig
Defender
7.04 21
Tim Drexler
Defender
6.5 23
Joane Gadou
Defender
6.08
44
Jannik Schuster
Defender
6.71 5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Midfielder
6.98 3Aleksa Terzic
6.69Defender83'
18
Mads Bidstrup (C)
Midfielder
7.19 24
Damir Redzic
Midfielder
6.88 11Yorbe Vertessen
Attacker63'
6.47
25
Oliver Lukić
Midfielder
6.68 37Tim Trummer
6.8Midfielder70'
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Midfielder
6.79 7Clement Bischoff
6.35Attacker62'
19
Karim Konaté
Attacker
6.46 9Karim Onisiwo
6.7Attacker83'
Substitutes ▼
92
Salko Hamzic
Goalkeeper
15
Mamady Diambou
Midfielder
49
Moussa Yeo
Midfielder
20
Edmund Baidoo
Attacker
Referee :
Markus Hameter
Manager ▼
J. Hoff Thorup
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Niklas Hedl
Goalkeeper
7.31 4
Jakob Schöller
Defender
6.81 20Ange Ahoussou
6.71Defender53'
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Defender
7.23 55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Defender
8.65
8
Lukas Grgic
Midfielder
6.55
10Petter Nosa Dahl
6.52Attacker52'
29
Romeo Amane
Midfielder
7.02
16Tobias Børkeeiet
Midfielder90+3'
38
Jannes Horn
Midfielder
7.32
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Midfielder
6.79 15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Attacker
6.66 17Tobias Gulliksen
6.54Midfielder83'
18
Matthias Seidl (C)
Attacker
26
Andreas Weimann
Attacker
6.82 90Janis Antiste
6.58Attacker83'
Substitutes ▼
25
Paul Gartler
Goalkeeper
47
Amin-Elias Gröller
Defender
61
Furkan Demir
Defender
9
Ercan Kara
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+3'
Tobias Børkeeiet → Romeo Amane
10th Substitution
Aleksa Terzic → Soumaïla Diabaté
9th Substitution
83'
Karim Onisiwo → Karim Konaté
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Janis Antiste → Andreas Weimann
6th Substitution
83'
Tobias Gulliksen → Nikolaus Wurmbrand
7th Substitution
79'
Romeo Amane
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Yorbe Vertessen
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
76'
76'
Nenad Cvetkovic
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Tim Trummer → Oliver Lukić
5th Substitution
70'
69'
Matthias Seidl
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Joane Gadou
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
67'
Yorbe Vertessen → Damir Redzic
4th Substitution
63'
Clement Bischoff → Kerim Alajbegovic
3rd Substitution
62'
53'
Ange Ahoussou → Jakob Schöller
2nd Substitution
52'
Petter Nosa Dahl → Lukas Grgic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
22'
Lukas Grgic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
Jannes Horn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: SK Rapid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.