Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu Thu, 9 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Rizespor Rizespor
4 Winner 1
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Thu, 9 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Loide Augusto - 39', 50'
Attila Mocsi - 43'
Qazim Laci - 45+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Cherif Ndiaye - 90+3'

CONTEXT

In this finished game, Rizespor defeated Samsunspor 4-1 after establishing a 3-0 halftime lead. Samsunspor scored once in the second half but finished with two red cards and no response to the home side's clinical finishing. Possession was close, with Samsunspor at 54 percent and Rizespor at 46 percent. Samsunspor entered as the stronger team yet could not overcome the numerical disadvantage and early deficit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rizespor showed minimal structural deviation despite Samsunspor being the stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations during the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Rizespor built a 3-0 halftime lead en route to a 4-1 victory.
  • Red card distortion: Two red cards to Samsunspor distorted the second half dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Karaoğlan
A. Karaoğlan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
E. Akbulut
E. Akbulut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
S. Güz
S. Güz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
A. Demirbaş
A. Demirbaş
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 L
Antalyaspor Rank: 61 W
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Konyaspor Rank: 68 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 D
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 61 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rizespor
97.44%
Draw
1.91%
Away Samsunspor
0.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.34
69.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rizespor
Samsunspor
Power Score
68.34
69.5
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
220
196

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rizespor Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.61
31.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.39
32.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rizespor +0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Samsunspor -0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Samsunspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rizespor Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rizespor Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rizespor
vs
Samsunspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rizespor Samsunspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rizespor 0.33
Samsunspor 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rizespor Samsunspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rizespor 0.03
Samsunspor 0.10
Rizespor
Samsunspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rizespor Rizespor Home
7 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
6
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-10T00:00:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
M. Pala
Turkey
54 M. Pala
A. Mocsi
Hungary
4 A. Mocsi
M. Sagnan
Substitution
France
27 M. Sagnan
C. Højer Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
5 C. Højer Nielsen
T. Antalyalı
Turkey
14 T. Antalyalı
L. António Augusto
Substitution
Angola
50 L. António Augusto
I. Olawoyin
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
Q. Laçi
Substitution
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
V. Mihăilă
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
A. Sowe
Substitution
Gambia
9 A. Sowe
O. Kocuk
Turkey
1 O. Kocuk
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
T. Borevković
Croatia
24 T. Borevković
J. Wooding Mendes
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
E. Tavsan
Substitution
Netherlands
7 E. Tavsan
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
T. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
70 T. Coulibaly
P. Ndiaye
Senegal
19 P. Ndiaye

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu
Capacity
15558
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Atilla Karaoğlan
Erkan Akbulut
Suat Güz
Ayberk Demirbaş

Statistics

Possession
Rizespor
49%
Samsunspor
51%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
40 Dangerous attacks 39
46 Possession 54
5 Corners 11
16 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 18
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
8 Goal Kicks 10
20 Dribble Attempts 11
12 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Successful Headers 8
4 Assists 0
77 Ball Safe 62
8 Goal Attempts 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

95 Attacks 80
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 87
59 Long Passes 34
32 Successful Long Passes 16
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
294 Successful Passes 352
349 Passes 406
11 Key Passes 11

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
9 Tackles 19
42 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 1

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 23
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

16 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
4
Attila Mocsi
Attila Mocsi Defender
5
Casper Højer
Casper Højer Defender
70
Furkan Orak
Furkan Orak
Defender79'
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan Defender
65
Emir Ortakaya
Emir Ortakaya
Defender63'
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
14
T. Antalyalı
T. Antalyalı Midfielder
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
18
Muhamed Buljubasic
Muhamed Buljubasic
Midfielder72'
50
Loide Augusto
Loide Augusto Midfielder
2
37
Taha Şahin
Taha Şahin
Defender72'
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe Attacker
19
Frantzdy Pierrot
Frantzdy Pierrot
Attacker79'
Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Defender
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković Defender
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Midfielder
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan
Midfielder67'
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji
Attacker78'
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly Midfielder
77
Afonso Sousa
Afonso Sousa
Midfielder86'
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Cherif Ndiaye
Header / 5th Goal
86'
Event
Afonso Sousa → Tanguy Coulibaly
8th Substitution
Event
Furkan Orak → Casper Højer
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Frantzdy Pierrot → Ali Sowe
7th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji → Olivier Ntcham
5th Substitution
Event
Muhamed Buljubasic → Qazim Laci
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Taha Şahin → Loide Augusto
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Casper Højer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
67'
Event
Yalçın Kayan → Elayis Tavsan
2nd Substitution
Event
Emir Ortakaya → Modibo Sagnan
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Loide Augusto
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
50'
Event
Loide Augusto
2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Qazim Laci
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
45+3'
Event
Attila Mocsi
Goal awarded
45+1'
Event
Attila Mocsi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
40'
Event
T. Fink
1st Yellow/red Card
40'
Event
Thorsten Fink
Argument / 1st Redcard
Event
Loide Augusto
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'
30'
Event
Logi Tómasson
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Rizespor claimed a 4-1 victory in the completed match despite Samsunspor being rated the stronger side beforehand. The home team built a 3-0 lead by halftime and added a further goal while the visitors were hampered by two red cards. Possession was marginally in Samsunspor's favor yet proved insufficient to change the outcome. Market indicators showed only minimal deviation and remained aligned with the final result, while efficiency stayed in line with projections and red card distortion was a noted second-half factor.

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