Rizespor vs Gaziantep F.K. Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu Mon, 13 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Rizespor Rizespor
2 Winner 1
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Qazim Laci - 79'
Ali Sowe - 81'
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Bayo - 23'

CONTEXT

The match between Rizespor and Gaziantep F.K. is finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-0 to the home side. Rizespor overturned a 0-1 half-time deficit through a strong second-half display, outscoring their opponents 2-0 after the break to claim a comfortable victory. Pre-match assessments positioned Rizespor as clear favorites, and the outcome showed only minimal deviation in their favor. The result aligned fully with pre-match projections, as the stronger team delivered exactly as anticipated. Possession was heavily skewed toward Rizespor at 61 percent to 39 percent, though no expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, with no red cards or major disruptive events affecting the flow of play. Overall the contest followed a predictable path once Rizespor adjusted after half-time, confirming the home win as a logical conclusion rather than an upset. (148 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rizespor showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Ergün
O. Ergün
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
H. Ülker
H. Ülker
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
S. Özay
S. Özay
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Gözütok
M. Gözütok
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
VS
Gaziantep F.K. B. Yılmaz
B. Yılmaz
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Samsunspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: D
Samsunspor Rank: D
Trabzonspor Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rizespor
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Gaziantep F.K.
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rizespor
+1.35%
Draw
-1.36%
Gaziantep F.K.
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.61
17.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rizespor
Gaziantep F.K.
Power Score
24.61
17.35
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rizespor Gaziantep F.K.

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.44
27.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.56
43.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rizespor +1.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Gaziantep F.K. -1.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Gaziantep F.K.
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rizespor Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rizespor Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Gaziantep F.K.
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rizespor
vs
Gaziantep F.K.
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rizespor Gaziantep F.K.
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rizespor 0.48
Gaziantep F.K. 0.67
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rizespor Gaziantep F.K.
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rizespor 0.07
Gaziantep F.K. 0.04
Rizespor
Gaziantep F.K.
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rizespor had peak pressure around 66'.
  • Rizespor started the game with stronger pressure.
Rizespor Pressure Gaziantep F.K. Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rizespor reached the top pressure at 66' (71.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rizespor Rizespor Home
11 matches
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
1
Draws
1
6
Losses
4
Goals
16
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
16
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
M. Pala
Turkey
54 M. Pala
A. Mocsi
Hungary
4 A. Mocsi
S. Akaydin
Turkey
3 S. Akaydin
M. Sagnan
France
27 M. Sagnan
T. Antalyalı
Substitution
Turkey
14 T. Antalyalı
L. António Augusto
Substitution
Angola
50 L. António Augusto
I. Olawoyin
Substitution
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
Q. Laçi
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
V. Mihăilă
Substitution
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
A. Sowe
Substitution
Gambia
9 A. Sowe
Z. Görgen
Turkey
20 Z. Görgen
T. Sanuç
Turkey
23 T. Sanuç
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
N. Sangare
Turkey
30 N. Sangare
C. Lungoyi
Substitution
Switzerland
11 C. Lungoyi
D. Camara
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 D. Camara
M. Kabasakal
Turkey
6 M. Kabasakal
L. Pérez Maqueda
Substitution
Spain
2 L. Pérez Maqueda
A. Maxim
Substitution
Romania
44 A. Maxim
K. Kozłowski
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
M. Bayo
Guinea
9 M. Bayo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu
Capacity
15558
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ozan Ergün
Hakan Ülker
Süleyman Özay
Murat Ergin Gözütok

Statistics

Possession
Rizespor
59%
Gaziantep F.K.
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 6
50 Dangerous attacks 15
61 Possession 39
9 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
4 Goal Kicks 7
26 Dribble Attempts 11
89 Ball Safe 82
10 Goal Attempts 7
19 Throwins 16
7 Successful Headers 10
7 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

140 Attacks 57
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

26 Successful Long Passes 24
395 Successful Passes 246
82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
17 Key Passes 6
61 Long Passes 58
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
480 Passes 322

Defensive

16 Tackles 24
46 Duels Won 53
5 Saves 5
11 Interceptions 8

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 4
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ozan Ergün

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Samet Akaydin
Samet Akaydin Defender
7.16
4
Attila Mocsi
Attila Mocsi Defender
6.67
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan Defender
6.8
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
6.72
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
6.79
37
Taha Şahin
Taha Şahin
Defender90+1'
6.85
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
6.79
11
Halil Dervişoğlu
Halil Dervişoğlu
Attacker65'
6.75
14
T. Antalyalı
T. Antalyalı Midfielder
6.6
6
Giannis Papanikolaou
Giannis Papanikolaou
Midfielder90+1'
6.68
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
7.19
50
Loide Augusto
Loide Augusto Midfielder
6.89
17
Adedire Mebude
Adedire Mebude
Attacker72'
7.07
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe Attacker
6.67
19
Frantzdy Pierrot
Frantzdy Pierrot
Attacker90'
6.48
Referee : Ozan Ergün

Starting XI ▼

20
Zafer Görgen
Zafer Görgen Goalkeeper
6.82
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
6.81
23
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Tayyip Talha Sanuç Defender
6.76
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré Defender
6.77
2
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez Midfielder
6.9
4
Arda Kızıldağ
Arda Kızıldağ
Defender78'
6.68
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara Midfielder
7.12
70
Denis Drăguș
Denis Drăguș
Attacker85'
6.6
6
Melih Kabasakal
Melih Kabasakal Midfielder
6.43
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi Midfielder
6.72
5
Nihad Mujakic
Nihad Mujakic
Defender78'
6.68
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
7.01
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Attacker
6.96
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim Attacker
7.4
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama
Midfielder72'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou → T. Antalyalı
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Taha Şahin → Valentin Mihăilă
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Frantzdy Pierrot → Ali Sowe
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Modibo Sagnan
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
85'
Event
Denis Drăguș → Drissa Camara
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Zafer Görgen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ali Sowe
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
Qazim Laci
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
78'
Event
Arda Kızıldağ → Luis Pérez
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Nihad Mujakic → Christopher Lungoyi
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Melih Kabasakal
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Adedire Mebude → Loide Augusto
3rd Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Karamba Gassama → Alexandru Maxim
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Christopher Lungoyi
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Halil Dervişoğlu → Ibrahim Olawoyin
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Samet Akaydin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Luis Pérez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rizespor exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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