Rijeka vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion HNK Rijeka Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Rijeka Rijeka
0 Winner 2
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Samuel Akere - 4'
Nail Omerovic - 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Rijeka and Osijek is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 to the visitors. Osijek took the lead in the first half and successfully defended it after the break, securing a result that defied pre-match expectations. Forecasts had given Rijeka a 62.4 percent chance of victory while assigning Osijek just a 13.3 percent probability, yet the away side produced a significant deviation from those projections by claiming all three points. Rijeka controlled the ball for 74 percent of the match but generated no reward, while Osijek operated with only 26 percent possession and still found the decisive goal. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, though the final outcome did not align with the pre-match projection that had identified Rijeka as the stronger side. Osijek’s clinical first-half strike proved enough to produce an upset victory on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osijek showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jakšić
A. Jakšić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
I. Mihalj
I. Mihalj
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
F. Dragasevic
F. Dragasevic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. Erceg
M. Erceg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.63
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
29
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
29 - 23 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
62.43%
Draw
24.31%
Away Osijek
13.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rijeka
+62.24%
Draw
+16.98%
Osijek
-79.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.26
18.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Osijek
Power Score
28.26
18.69
League Position
3
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.46
29.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.04
34.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Osijek
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Osijek
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.18
Osijek 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Osijek
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.06
Osijek 0.00
Rijeka
Osijek
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 39'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Rijeka Pressure Osijek Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 39' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home
72 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
29
Wins
20
23
Draws
23
20
Losses
29
Goals
92
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
92
+20
Goal Difference
-20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
T. Barišić
Substitution
Croatia
28 T. Barišić
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
A. Oreč
Substitution
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
T. Dantas
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
T. Fruk
Substitution
Croatia
10 T. Fruk
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
D. Adu-Adjei
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
D. Čolina
Substitution
Croatia
38 D. Čolina
J. Mersinaj
Albania
5 J. Mersinaj
I. Kolarik
Substitution
49 I. Kolarik
D. Bukvić
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
D. Mejía Moscoso
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
M. Jovičić
Substitution
98 M. Jovičić
N. Omerović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
S. Akere
Substitution
Nigeria
57 S. Akere
A. Matković
Substitution
Croatia
34 A. Matković

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity
8279
Attendance
4919
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alen Jakšić
Ivan Mihalj
Filip Dragasevic
Mateo Erceg

Statistics

Possession
Rijeka
69%
Osijek
31%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 4
110 Dangerous attacks 31
74 Possession 26
6 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Goal Kicks 13
38 Throwins 16
4 Successful Dribbles 4
21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
19 Dribble Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
156 Attacks 60

Possession

513 Passes 190
56 Long Passes 58
432 Successful Passes 113
32 Successful Long Passes 21
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
84 Successful Passes Percentage 59
14 Key Passes 3

Defensive

5 Tackles 25
0 Saves 4
5 Interceptions 6

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 8
15 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defender
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Attacker27'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker69'
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Midfielder
7
Tornike Morchiladze
Tornike Morchiladze
Midfielder69'
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Midfielder
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender69'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
28
Teo Barišić
Teo Barišić Midfielder
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt
Midfielder13'
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Defender
38
David Colina
David Colina Defender
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja
Midfielder64'
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Defender
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic
Defender78'
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Midfielder
8
Simun Mikolcic
Simun Mikolcic
Midfielder78'
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
34
Anton Matkovic
Anton Matkovic Attacker
46
Ivan Barić
Ivan Barić
Attacker83'
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Attacker
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic
Defender65'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Nail Omerovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
Ivan Barić → Anton Matkovic
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Simun Mikolcic → Miloš Jovičić
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Emin Hasic → Ivano Kolarik
8th Substitution
Event
Tornike Morchiladze → Ante Orec
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Amer Gojak
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Justas Lasickas → Christian Ouguehi Legbo
6th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Luka Jelenic → Samuel Akere
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Vladan Bubanja → David Colina
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
44'
Event
Ante Orec
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Mladen Devetak
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
32'
32'
Event
David Mejía
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Toni Fruk
2nd Substitution
27'
Event
Stjepan Radeljic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Merveil Ndockyt → Teo Barišić
1st Substitution
13'
4'
Event
Samuel Akere
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Osijek exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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