Ried vs Rheindorf Altach Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
josko ARENA Fri, 3 Apr - 5:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Ried Ried
3 Winner 2
Rheindorf Altach ALT
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Kingstone Mutandwa - 62', 69', 90+3' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Patrick Greil - 27'
Mohamed Ouédraogo - 46'
|
Red Card Ousmane Diawara 58'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Ried securing a thrilling 3-2 victory over Rheindorf Altach. Rheindorf Altach initially took control, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, but a dramatic second half completely shifted the momentum. The final result aligned with the pre-match market, which gave home side Ried a 43.7% probability of winning, alongside a 29.8% chance of a draw and 26.5% for an away victory. Nevertheless, the outcome represented a significant deviation level of 56.3% favoring Ried, as they overcame the nominally stronger Rheindorf Altach side. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so the outcome's consistency with xG could not be determined. However, Ried generally commanded the ball, finishing with 54% possession compared to 46% for the visitors. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift for the fixture remained in line with standard attacking expectations. A crucial turning point came when Rheindorf Altach was reduced to ten men. This away dismissal led to a severe red card distortion during the second half. The ejection heavily impacted the visitors' defensive structure, ultimately allowing

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ried showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Sadikovski
A. Sadikovski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.24
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
A. Heidenreich
A. Heidenreich
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.24
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
S. Gruber
S. Gruber
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.24
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
S. Bosnjak
S. Bosnjak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.24
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
VS
Rheindorf Altach O. Zaric
O. Zaric
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 L
WSG Tirol Rank: 55 W
Austria Wien Rank: 66 L
Grazer AK Rank: 52 L
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 D
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 60 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 L
SK Rapid Rank: 61 D
Austria Wien Rank: 66 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 8 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ried
43.7%
Draw
29.83%
Away Rheindorf Altach
26.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.05
53.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ried
Rheindorf Altach
Power Score
46.05
53.33
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
694
665

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Rheindorf Altach — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ried Rheindorf Altach

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rheindorf Altach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rheindorf Altach
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.80
15.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.76
28.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ried +0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Rheindorf Altach -0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Rheindorf Altach
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rheindorf Altach
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ried Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ried Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Rheindorf Altach
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ried
vs
Rheindorf Altach
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ried Rheindorf Altach
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ried 0.17
Rheindorf Altach 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ried Rheindorf Altach
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ried 0.08
Rheindorf Altach 0.04
Ried
Rheindorf Altach
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ried Ried Home
38 matches
Rheindorf Altach ALT Away
Match Record
18
Wins
12
8
Draws
8
12
Losses
18
Goals
59
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
59
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:03:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Leitner
Austria
1 A. Leitner
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
F. Rossdorfer
Substitution
Austria
18 F. Rossdorfer
M. Rasner
Substitution
Austria
8 M. Rasner
M. Maart
South Africa
6 M. Maart
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
A. Bajic
Austria
12 A. Bajic
P. Kiedl
Substitution
Austria
13 P. Kiedl
A. Van Wyk
South Africa
29 A. Van Wyk
D. Stojanovic
Austria
1 D. Stojanovic
L. Jäger
Substitution
Austria
17 L. Jäger
B. Zech
Austria
23 B. Zech
F. Milojevic
Austria
27 F. Milojevic
M. Ouédraogo
Burkina Faso
29 M. Ouédraogo
M. Bähre
Germany
8 M. Bähre
V. Demaku
Austria
6 V. Demaku
S. Ingolitsch
Substitution
Austria
25 S. Ingolitsch
P. Greil
Substitution
Austria
18 P. Greil
O. Diawara
Mali
10 O. Diawara
Y. Massombo Litawumba
Substitution
France
28 Y. Massombo Litawumba

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
josko ARENA
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Alain Sadikovski
Andreas Heidenreich
Sebastian Gruber
Stjepan Bosnjak

Statistics

Possession
Ried
55%
ALT
45%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 1
71 Dangerous attacks 25
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Dribble Attempts 16
27 Throwins 19
12 Successful Dribbles 11
63 Ball Safe 84
5 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 2
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

47 Long Passes 67
10 Key Passes 6
78 Successful Passes Percentage 67
283 Successful Passes 210
361 Passes 312
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
22 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

10 Tackles 24
52 Duels Won 57
14 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 2

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 8
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner Midfielder
47
Evan Eghosa
Evan Eghosa
Midfielder64'
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Midfielder
18
Fabian Rossdorfer
Fabian Rossdorfer Midfielder
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe
Midfielder85'
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Attacker
13
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl Attacker
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa
Attacker46'
3
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk Attacker
Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

1
Dejan Stojanovic
Dejan Stojanovic Goalkeeper
17
Lukas Jäger
Lukas Jäger Defender
26
Erkin Yalcin
Erkin Yalcin
Attacker90+5'
23
Benedikt Zech
Benedikt Zech Defender
27
Filip Milojevic
Filip Milojevic Defender
6
Vesel Demaku
Vesel Demaku Midfielder
8
Mike-Steven Bähre
Mike-Steven Bähre Midfielder
25
Sandro Ingolitsch
Sandro Ingolitsch Midfielder
—
Sandro Ingolitsch
90+5'
29
Mohamed Ouédraogo
Mohamed Ouédraogo Midfielder
10
Ousmane Diawara
Ousmane Diawara Attacker
18
Patrick Greil
Patrick Greil Attacker
9
Marlon Mustapha
Marlon Mustapha
Attacker70'
28
Yann Massombo
Yann Massombo Attacker
5
Lukas Gugganig
Lukas Gugganig
Defender80'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yussef Nasrawe
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
5th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
Ante Bajic
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+9'
90+5'
Event
→ Sandro Ingolitsch
8th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Erkin Yalcin → Lukas Jäger
6th Substitution
90+5'
Event
7th Substitution
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+3'
Event
Martin Rasner
Penalty awarded
90+1'
Event
Yussef Nasrawe → Fabian Rossdorfer
5th Substitution
85'
80'
Event
Lukas Gugganig → Yann Massombo
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Sandro Ingolitsch
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Marlon Mustapha → Patrick Greil
3rd Substitution
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Header / 4th Goal
69'
Event
Evan Eghosa → Martin Rasner
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Header / 3rd Goal
62'
58'
Event
Ousmane Diawara
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
54'
Event
Ognjen Zaric
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa → Peter Kiedl
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Mohamed Ouédraogo
Header / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Patrick Greil
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ried exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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