Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu Tue, 21 Apr - 7:30 PM
La Liga
Real Madrid RMA
Versus
Deportivo Alavés ALA
KICKOFF : Tue, 21 Apr - 7:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Real Madrid host Deportivo Alavés in La Liga (Regular Season) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Domestically, Real Madrid sit 2th in the table while Deportivo Alavés are 17th. Power ranking favours Real Madrid by 16 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Real Madrid enjoys a 16-point power advantage and sits 2nd while Alavés occupies 17th in La Liga.
  • Form: Hosts lead with a form score of 26.11 over the away side's 16.39.
  • Squad: Madrid's superior power score of 37.4 dwarfs Alavés' 21.44, reflecting squad depth.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: No specific transition data provided in analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with xG unavailable and proxies used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable insights.
  • Market: Projection split: Real Madrid 76.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 16.4% (Δ+0%) | Deportivo Alavés 7.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
VS
Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
2.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: D
Mallorca Rank: L
Atlético Madrid Rank: W
Elche Rank: W
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
Getafe Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: D
Osasuna Rank: D
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
Villarreal Rank: D
Valencia Rank: L
Levante Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Madrid
76.1%
Draw
16.37%
Away Deportivo Alavés
7.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.4
21.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Madrid
Deportivo Alavés
Power Score
37.4
21.44
League Position
2
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Madrid Deportivo Alavés

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Madrid RMA Home
19 matches
Deportivo Alavés ALA Away
Match Record
17
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
17
Goals
50
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
50
+39
Goal Difference
-39
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T02:09:04+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Lunin
13 A. Lunin
D. Carvajal Ramos
2 D. Carvajal Ramos
É. Gabriel Militão
3 É. Gabriel Militão
A. Rüdiger
22 A. Rüdiger
F. García Torres
20 F. García Torres
F. Valverde Dipetta
8 F. Valverde Dipetta
E. Camavinga
6 E. Camavinga
J. Bellingham
5 J. Bellingham
B. Abdelkader Diaz
21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
K. Mbappé
10 K. Mbappé
V. Júnior
7 V. Júnior
A. Sivera Salvá
1 A. Sivera Salvá
V. Parada González
24 V. Parada González
J. Castro Otto
17 J. Castro Otto
N. Tenaglia
14 N. Tenaglia
A. Pérez Hidalgo
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
C. Aleña Castillo
10 C. Aleña Castillo
A. Blanco Conde
8 A. Blanco Conde
J. Guridi Aldalur
18 J. Guridi Aldalur
P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
A. Martínez López
11 A. Martínez López
I. Diabate
22 I. Diabate

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity
84744
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Andriy Lunin
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper
6.69
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
7.29
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Centre Forward
7.7
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Attacker
6.83
2
Daniel Carvajal
Daniel Carvajal Right Back
6.72
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Central Midfield
7.36
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga Central Midfield
7.02
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde Central Midfield
7.34
20
Fran García
Fran García Left Back
6.76
3
Éder Militão
Éder Militão Right Back
7.21
22
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Left Back
6.82

Starting XI ▼

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
6.71
10
Carles Aleñá
Carles Aleñá Midfielder
6.75
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
6.78
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
7.07
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté Attacker
6.71
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Right Back
6.76
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Central Midfield
6.98
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Right Back
6.81
17
Jonny Otto
Jonny Otto Left Back
6.71
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi Central Midfield
6.53
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Left Back
6.5

CONCLUSION

Real Madrid enters as overwhelming favorites, leveraging home advantage and superior metrics to overpower a struggling Deportivo Alavés. The 16-point power gap and stronger form position suggest a routine victory for the 2nd-placed giants against 17th-placed foes. Absent detailed set piece or xG insights, Madrid's overall quality should prevail in transitions and open play. Expect the Bernabéu faithful to witness a clinical display, extending the hosts' lead in the standings while deepening Alavés' woes. Projections align perfectly with this narrative, forecasting a clear home win.

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