Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Estadio de Vallecas Thu, 19 Mar - 8:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano RAY
0 Winner 1
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 8:00 PM
Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 2
|
Goal
Cherif Ndiaye - 65'
|
Second yellow card Zeki Yavru 90+4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Samsunspor. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
  • Market: Rayo Vallecano 61.8% | Draw 24.6% | Samsunspor 13.7%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Drita Rank: 56 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Slovan Bratislava Rank: 72 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 W
Häcken Rank: 56 D
Skendija 79 Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Skendija 79 Rank: W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 79 L
AEK Athens Rank: 77 L
Breidablik Rank: D
Hamrun Spartans Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rayo Vallecano
61.78%
Draw
24.55%
Away Samsunspor
13.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.14
69.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Power Score
76.14
69.61
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
81
186

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rayo Vallecano Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.77
19.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.29
49.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rayo Vallecano +2.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Samsunspor -2.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rayo Vallecano Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rayo Vallecano Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rayo Vallecano RAY Home
1 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:11:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Batalla Barga
Argentina
13 A. Batalla Barga
A. Ratiu
Romania
2 A. Ratiu
F. Lejeune
France
24 F. Lejeune
L. Ramos Marchi
Italy
5 L. Ramos Marchi
J. Chavarría Pérez
Spain
3 J. Chavarría Pérez
I. Palazón Camacho
Substitution
Spain
7 I. Palazón Camacho
P. Ciss
Senegal
6 P. Ciss
U. López Cabrera
Substitution
Spain
17 U. López Cabrera
J. De Frutos Sebastián
Substitution
Spain
19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
A. Zurawski
Substitution
Brazil
9 A. Zurawski
Á. García Rivera
Substitution
Spain
18 Á. García Rivera
O. Kocuk
Turkey
1 O. Kocuk
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
Ľ. Šatka
Slovakia
37 Ľ. Šatka
Y. Cift
Substitution
Turkey
55 Y. Cift
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
C. Holse
Substitution
Denmark
21 C. Holse
C. Yüksel
Turkey
5 C. Yüksel
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
J. Wooding Mendes
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
P. Ndiaye
Senegal
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 19, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 2
Stadium
Estadio de Vallecas
Capacity
14708
Attendance
2
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sascha Stegemann

Statistics

Possession
RAY
48%
Samsunspor
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
12 Shots 7
58 Dangerous attacks 36
44 Possession 56
13 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 10
28 Throwins 22
13 Successful Dribbles 2
18 Dribble Attempts 10
72 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
72 Ball Safe 100
15 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 3
0 Assists 1

Attacking

76 Attacks 102
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

209 Successful Passes 320
298 Passes 400
70 Successful Passes Percentage 80
69 Long Passes 66
29 Successful Long Passes 37
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
14 Key Passes 6

Defensive

1 Saves 7
14 Tackles 15
14 Interceptions 11
48 Duels Won 42

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 21
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu Defender
3
Pep Chavarría
Pep Chavarría Defender
5
Luiz Felipe
Luiz Felipe Defender
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Midfielder
7
Isi Palazón
Isi Palazón Midfielder
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz
Midfielder80'
17
Unai López
Unai López Midfielder
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín
Midfielder80'
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Attacker
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu
Defender64'
18
Álvaro García
Álvaro García Attacker
32
Nobel Mendy
Nobel Mendy
Defender90'
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Attacker
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
Attacker80'
Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Defender
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift Defender
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly
Attacker80'
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Midfielder
11
Emre Kılınç
Emre Kılınç
Midfielder80'
5
Celil Yüksel
Celil Yüksel Midfielder
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Midfielder
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković
Defender87'
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Zeki Yavru
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+4'
Event
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Emre Kılınç
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Nobel Mendy → Álvaro García
8th Substitution
90'
87'
Event
Toni Borevković → Carlo Holse
7th Substitution
Event
Sergio Camello
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
85'
85'
Event
Rick van Drongelen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Óscar Valentín → Unai López
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Sergio Camello → Jorge de Frutos
2nd Substitution
80'
Event
Pedro Díaz → Isi Palazón
4th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly → Yunus Emre Çift
3rd Substitution
80'
Event
Emre Kılınç → Joe Mendes
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Cherif Ndiaye
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Iván Balliu → Alexandre Zurawski
1st Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Pep Chavarría
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
22'
Event
Celil Yüksel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Sergio Camello from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Nobel Mendy comes on to take the place of Álvaro García.
90
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after Celil Yüksel allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been stopped. Sergio Camello from Rayo Vallecano directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper managed to make the save.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zeki Yavru from Samsunspor receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emre Kilinç of Samsunspor receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Okan Kocuk allowed the ball to go out.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zeki Yavru from Samsunspor receives his second yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Rayo Vallecano 0, Samsunspor 1.
88
Update Update
Rayo Vallecano is flagged for offside. Pep Chavarría has been caught in an offside position.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Samsunspor: Toni Borevkovic comes on to take the place of Carlo Holse.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Sergio Camello from Rayo Vallecano directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it went off target.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergio Camello from Rayo Vallecano receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Iván Balliu from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rick van Drongelen from Samsunspor receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Celil Yüksel from Samsunspor earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
84
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Logi Tómasson from Samsunspor takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a corner, but it sails over the goal.
83
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Samsunspor after Luiz Felipe allowed the ball to go out.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Samsunspor: Emre Kilinç comes on to take the place of Joe Mendes.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Pedro Díaz comes on to take the place of Isi Palazón.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Sergio Camello comes on to take the place of Jorge de Frutos.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Samsunspor: Tanguy Coulibaly comes on to take the place of Yunus Emre Çift.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Sergio Camello comes on to take the place of Jorge de Frutos.
75
Update Update
Lubomír Satka from Samsunspor is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
75
Update Update
Isi Palazón commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor heads the ball from the center of the box, but it sails over the crossbar. The chance was set up by a cross from Joe Mendes.
73
Corner Corner
Shot on goal denied. Álvaro García of Rayo Vallecano heads the ball from the center of the box, but Okan Kocuk from Samsunspor makes a save in the top left corner. The attempt was set up by a cross from Isi Palazón.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after a deflection off Rick van Drongelen.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Cherif Ndiaye allowed the ball to go out.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
70
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune of Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a direct free kick, but it goes wide of the target.
69
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
69
Update Update
Rick van Drongelen commits a foul for Samsunspor.
68
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rick van Drongelen of Samsunspor took a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. Lubomír Satka provided the assist.
67
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left after a corner kick.
66
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano earns a corner kick after Rick van Drongelen allows the ball to go out of play.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rayo Vallecano 0, Samsunspor 1. Cherif Ndiaye scores for Samsunspor with a powerful right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
64
Update Update
Yunus Emre Çift from Samsunspor commits a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Iván Balliu comes on to take the place of Alemão.
64
Update Update
Yunus Emre Çift from Samsunspor committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Alemão from Rayo Vallecano is awarded a free kick in their own half.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
56
Update Update
Alemão from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
56
Update Update
Okan Kocuk from Samsunspor earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
56
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after Rick van Drongelen allowed the ball to go out of play.
55
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after a deflection off Okan Kocuk.
55
Attempt Attempt
A shot from outside the penalty area by Isi Palazón of Rayo Vallecano is blocked by Okan Kocuk of Samsunspor, who makes a save in the upper center of the goal. The effort was set up by Pep Chavarría.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano took a left-footed shot from the middle of the box but couldn't find the target.
53
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Andrei Ratiu from Rayo Vallecano takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
52
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Yunus Emre Çift allowed the ball to go out.
52
Update Update
Andrei Ratiu from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
52
Update Update
Logi Tómasson commits a foul for Samsunspor.
51
Update Update
Isi Palazón commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
51
Update Update
Yunus Emre Çift from Samsunspor earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
48
Update Update
Joe Mendes from Samsunspor is awarded a free kick in their own half.
48
Update Update
Álvaro García of Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
45
Update Update
Cherif Ndiaye from Samsunspor has been awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor took a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went just wide to the left after a set piece.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at Rayo Vallecano 0, Samsunspor 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Unai López from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Rayo Vallecano 0, Samsunspor 0.
44
Update Update
Carlo Holse of Samsunspor earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
44
Update Update
Luiz Felipe commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
43
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has earned a corner kick after a defensive play by Rick van Drongelen.
41
Update Update
Antoine Makoumbou from Samsunspor commits a foul.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Unai López from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the right of the goal.
41
Update Update
Pep Chavarría from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Unai López from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
39
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
38
Update Update
The match is currently paused due to an injury to Celil Yüksel from Samsunspor.
34
Update Update
Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor commits a foul.
34
Update Update
Luiz Felipe from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
33
Update Update
Rick van Drongelen of Samsunspor earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
33
Update Update
Alemão of Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in their own half.
32
Update Update
Joe Mendes from Samsunspor has been awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
32
Update Update
Joe Mendes from Samsunspor has been awarded a free kick in the defensive half of the field.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pep Chavarría of Rayo Vallecano receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
31
Update Update
Pathé Ciss commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
31
Update Update
Cherif Ndiaye from Samsunspor has been awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
28
Update Update
Logi Tómasson from Samsunspor earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
28
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
27
Update Update
Unai López from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
27
Update Update
Antoine Makoumbou from Samsunspor earns a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
25
Update Update
Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor earns a free kick on the right side.
25
Update Update
Luiz Felipe commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marius Mouandilmadji of Samsunspor heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the goal and to the right. The chance came after a cross from Celil Yüksel following a set piece.
22
Update Update
Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive half.
22
Update Update
Celil Yüksel from Samsunspor commits a foul.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Celil Yüksel from Samsunspor receives a yellow card for committing a foul.
21
Update Update
Cherif Ndiaye from Samsunspor earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
21
Update Update
Luiz Felipe commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
19
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after a defensive play by Okan Kocuk.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Logi Tómasson allowed the ball to go out of play.
17
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after Okan Kocuk allowed the ball to go out of play.
17
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after Okan Kocuk allowed the ball to go out of play.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed just over the crossbar. He was set up by Cherif Ndiaye.
12
Update Update
Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
12
Update Update
Celil Yüksel from Samsunspor earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
11
Update Update
Cherif Ndiaye from Samsunspor is awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
11
Update Update
Unai López from Rayo Vallecano commits a foul.
11
Update Update
Florian Lejeune of Rayo Vallecano had his header from the center of the box stopped. The attempt was set up by a cross from Isi Palazón.
10
Corner Corner
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a corner kick after Okan Kocuk allowed the ball to go out of play.
9
Update Update
Pathé Ciss commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
9
Corner Corner
Shot on goal blocked. Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano takes a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but Okan Kocuk from Samsunspor makes a save in the bottom left corner, with assistance from Alemão.
9
Update Update
Pathé Ciss commits a foul for Rayo Vallecano.
3
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt by Carlo Holse from Samsunspor has been blocked. He fired a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper made the save.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went over the goal and to the right.
1
Update Update
Marius Mouandilmadji from Samsunspor earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
1
Update Update
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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