Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Mon, 6 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
1 – 1
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Rafal Wolski - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Karol Czubak - 21'

CONTEXT

The match between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin has finished in a 1-1 draw. Motor Lublin initially took the lead, heading into half-time with a 1-0 advantage, but the home side managed to find an equalizer in the second half to ultimately split the points. This outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations. Before kickoff, the market gave Radomiak Radom a 43.5% chance of victory, compared to Motor Lublin's 30.3% win probability and a 26.2% likelihood of a draw. Because the home favorites failed to secure the win, the final scoreline represents a significant deviation (73.8%), standing as a notable result for the deviation team, Motor Lublin. Out on the pitch, Motor Lublin controlled slightly more of the ball, finishing with 54% possession against Radomiak Radom's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available to measure the precise quality of scoring chances, meaning an outcome alignment with xG could not be determined. However, the resulting draw remained in line with the overall efficiency shift observed throughout the contest. Finally, the match dynamic was unaffected by disciplinary issues, as no red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motor Lublin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Nagamine
K. Nagamine
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
K. Ando
K. Ando
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Piszczelok
M. Piszczelok
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Radomiak Radom B. Nunes Baltazar
B. Nunes Baltazar
VS
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 D
Katowice Rank: 64 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Nieciecza Rank: 52 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 W
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
43.46%
Draw
26.24%
Away Motor Lublin
30.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.17
60.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
Power Score
59.17
60.46
League Position
13
8
Global Rank
492
456

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Motor Lublin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.35
32.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.31
44.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom +1.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Motor Lublin -1.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Motor Lublin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Motor Lublin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Radomiak Radom
vs
Motor Lublin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Radomiak Radom Motor Lublin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Radomiak Radom 0.25
Motor Lublin 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Motor Lublin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Radomiak Radom 0.01
Motor Lublin 0.01
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
3 matches
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
4
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
J. Blasco
France
5 J. Blasco
A. Diéguez Grande
Spain
26 A. Diéguez Grande
J. Reginaldo
Brazil
20 J. Reginaldo
I. Camará
Substitution
Guinea
2 I. Camará
R. Silva Baró
Substitution
Portugal
6 R. Silva Baró
L. Lima Linhares
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
R. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
27 R. Wolski
V. Fortes Lopes
Substitution
7 V. Fortes Lopes
M. Roque Junior
Substitution
Brazil
25 M. Roque Junior
I. Brkić
Croatia
1 I. Brkić
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
M. Bartoš
Slovakia
39 M. Bartoš
F. Wójcik
Substitution
Poland
17 F. Wójcik
S. Samper Montaña
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Samper Montaña
F. Costa Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
11 F. Costa Conceição
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
B. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
68 B. Wolski
M. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
K. Czubak
Poland
9 K. Czubak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Attendance
9242
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Koki Nagamine
Kohei Ando
Masaru Hasegawa
Mateusz Piszczelok

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
48%
Motor Lublin
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 7
68 Dangerous attacks 69
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 10
14 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 14
8 Successful Dribbles 8
21 Throwins 14
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
18 Dribble Attempts 13
0 Assists 1
77 Ball Safe 76
13 Goal Attempts 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

79 Attacks 88
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

311 Successful Passes 361
12 Key Passes 9
45 Long Passes 30
361 Passes 423
86 Successful Passes Percentage 85
24 Successful Long Passes 10
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

11 Tackles 17
9 Interceptions 5
46 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 1

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 39
9 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
5
Jérémy Blasco
Jérémy Blasco Defender
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Defender
20
João Pedro Reginaldo
João Pedro Reginaldo Defender
26
Adrián Diéguez
Adrián Diéguez Defender
2
Ibrahima Camará
Ibrahima Camará Midfielder
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis
Midfielder63'
6
Romário Baró
Romário Baró Midfielder
28
Michal Kaput
Michal Kaput
Midfielder84'
7
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes Midfielder
19
Salifou Soumah
Salifou Soumah
Attacker75'
27
Rafal Wolski
Rafal Wolski Midfielder
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé
Attacker75'
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior Attacker
15
Abdoul Tapsoba
Abdoul Tapsoba
Attacker83'
Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Brkic
Ivan Brkic Goalkeeper
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik Defender
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski
Defender65'
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
39
Marek Bartos
Marek Bartos Defender
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper Midfielder
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko
Midfielder74'
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo Midfielder
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven
Midfielder65'
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Midfielder
26
Michal Krol
Michal Krol
Midfielder83'
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski Midfielder
10
Kacper Karasek
Kacper Karasek
Midfielder84'
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Michal Kaput → Romário Baró
9th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Kacper Karasek → Bartosz Wolski
10th Substitution
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba → Maurides Roque Junior
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Michal Krol → Mbaye Ndiaye
7th Substitution
Event
Elves Baldé → Rafal Wolski
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Salifou Soumah → Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
6th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Jakub Labojko → Sergi Samper
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Sergi Samper
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Pawel Stolarski → Filip Wojcik
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Bradly van Hoeven → Fábio Ronaldo
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Ivo Rodrigues
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Christos Donis → Ibrahima Camará
1st Substitution
63'
57'
Event
Marek Bartos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Rafal Wolski
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
21'
Event
Karol Czubak
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motor Lublin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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