Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Fri, 13 Mar - 7:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
1
–
1
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
Full Time
Fri, 13 Mar
7:30 PM
Maurides Roque Junior - 2'
|
Radovan Pankov - 7'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 19
CONTEXT
The match between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa has finished, with the teams playing out a 1-1 draw. The game was already deadlocked at 1-1 at half-time, and neither side managed to find a winning breakthrough during the second half. Legia Warszawa entered the fixture as the stronger team, holding a 38% pre-match win probability compared to Radomiak Radom's 34.3% and a 27.7% chance of a draw. Because the match ended in a tie, the final result did not align with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation from expectations for Legia Warszawa, as the narrow favorites ultimately dropped points on the road. Despite being the slight underdogs, Radomiak Radom dictated the ball, commanding 58% of the possession to Legia Warszawa's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this contest, making it impossible to evaluate if the 1-1 outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive quality. However, the match's overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. Finally, the flow of the game was unhindered by disciplinary issues, as there were no red cards issued to either side.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Kuźma
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
A. Wójcik
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
P. Lasyk
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
S. Kowalewski
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
G. Feio
VS
M. Papszun
1.41
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice
Rank: 62
L
Arka Gdynia
Rank: 56
W
Nieciecza
Rank: 53
D
Jagiellonia Białystok
Rank: 67
D
Korona Kielce
Rank: 63
L
Raków Częstochowa
Rank: 71
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków
Rank: 61
W
Jagiellonia Białystok
Rank: 66
D
Wisła Płock
Rank: 58
W
Katowice
Rank: 63
D
Arka Gdynia
Rank: 55
D
Korona Kielce
Rank: 63
L
4
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 5
5
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Radomiak Radom
34.3%
Draw
27.67%
Legia Warszawa
38.03%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.63
63.01
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
59.63
63.01
League Position
7
14
Global Rank
459
372
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Radomiak Radom
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Radomiak Radom Legia Warszawa
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Radomiak Radom
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Legia Warszawa
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Radomiak Radom
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.52
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Radomiak Radom
-1.73
Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa
+1.73
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Radomiak Radom
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Legia Warszawa
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
Home
9
matches
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
0
Draws
0
5
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
14
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:11:29+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
1 F. Majchrowicz
24 Z. Ouattara
14 S. Kingue
26 A. Diéguez Grande
V. Fortes Lopes
#780'
3 J. Wilson-Esbrand
C. Donis
#7765'
2 I. Camará
13 J. Grzesik
M. Kaput
#2865'
6 R. Silva Baró
27 (C) R. Wolski
E. Baldé
#2146'
82 L. Lima Linhares
A. Tapsoba
#1576'
25 M. Roque Junior
89 O. Hindrich
12 R. Pankov
8 (C) R. Augustyniak
91 K. Piątkowski
A. Reca
#1380'
23 P. Kun
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
D. Szymański
#4474'
53 W. Urbański
P. Wszołek
#780'
11 K. Chodyna
9 R. Adamski
E. Krasniqi
#7774'
21 V. Bichakhchyan
J. Nsamé
#1865'
29 M. Rajovic
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Attendance
13902
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Łukasz Kuźma
Arkadiusz Wójcik
Piotr Lasyk
S. Kowalewski
Statistics
Possession
Radomiak Radom
54%
Legia Warszawa
46%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
1
1
Big Chances Created
2
1
Shots
6
37
Dangerous attacks
50
58
Possession
42
3
Corners
7
19
Free kicks
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
1
Assists
1
18
Throwins
19
6
Goal Kicks
7
11
Dribble Attempts
12
45
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
5
Successful Dribbles
6
5
Substitutions
5
1
Hit Woodwork
0
89
Ball Safe
80
4
Goal Attempts
10
4
Injuries
2
Attacking
0
Big Chances Missed
1
85
Attacks
90
Possession
52
Long Passes
54
405
Passes
284
77
Successful Passes Percentage
70
310
Successful Passes
199
37
Successful Long Passes Percentage
44
19
Successful Long Passes
24
Defensive
8
Interceptions
9
12
Tackles
12
5
Saves
0
Build-up
12
Total Crosses
20
1
Accurate Crosses
6
Discipline
14
Fouls
20
3
Offsides
1
Lineup
Referee :
Piotr Lasyk
Manager ▼
G. Feio
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Filip Majchrowicz
Goalkeeper
7.54 3
Josh Wilson-Esbrand
Defender
6.43 7Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
6.56Attacker80'
14
Steve Kingue
Defender
6.25
24
Zié Ouattara
Defender
7.08 26
Adrián Diéguez
Defender
6.52 2
Ibrahima Camará
Midfielder
6.46 77Christos Donis
6.28Midfielder65'
6
Romário Baró
Midfielder
6.3
28Michal Kaput
6.57Midfielder65'
13
Jan Grzesik
Midfielder
6.54 27
Rafal Wolski (C)
Midfielder
7.51 82
Luquinhas
Midfielder
6.49 21Elves Baldé
6.57Attacker46'
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Attacker
15Abdoul Tapsoba
6.62Attacker76'
Substitutes ▼
44
Wiktor Koptas
Goalkeeper
75
Michal Jerke
Goalkeeper
5
Jérémy Blasco
Defender
16
Mateusz Cichocki
Defender
9
Leândro
Midfielder
17
Adam Żabicki
Midfielder
19
Salifou Soumah
Attacker
Referee :
Piotr Lasyk
Manager ▼
M. Papszun
Coach
Starting XI ▼
89
Otto Hindrich
Goalkeeper
6.38 8
Rafal Augustyniak (C)
Defender
6.69 12
Radovan Pankov
Defender
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Defender
6.59 11
Kacper Chodyna
Midfielder
6.55 7Pawel Wszolek
6.5Midfielder80'
22
Juergen Elitim
Midfielder
7.86
23
Patryk Kun
Midfielder
6.67 13Arkadiusz Reca
6.47Defender80'
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Midfielder
6.44 44Damian Szymanski
6.4Midfielder74'
9
Rafal Adamski
Attacker
7.71 21
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Attacker
6.53 77Ermal Krasniqi
6.51Attacker74'
29
Mileta Rajović
Attacker
6.62 18Jean-Pierre Nsame
6.64Attacker65'
Substitutes ▼
1
Kacper Tobiasz
Goalkeeper
55
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender
56
Jan Leszczynski
Defender
82
Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder
99
Samuel Kovacik
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
88'
Juergen Elitim
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes → Josh Wilson-Esbrand
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Pawel Wszolek → Kacper Chodyna
10th Substitution
80'
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
9th Substitution
Abdoul Tapsoba → Maurides Roque Junior
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Damian Szymanski → Wojciech Urbanski
6th Substitution
74'
Ermal Krasniqi → Vahan Bichakhchyan
5th Substitution
Michal Kaput → Romário Baró
3rd Substitution
65'
Christos Donis → Ibrahima Camará
2nd Substitution
65'
65'
Jean-Pierre Nsame → Mileta Rajović
4th Substitution
Steve Kingue
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Romário Baró
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'
Elves Baldé → Luquinhas
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
7'
Radovan Pankov
Header / 2nd Goal
Maurides Roque Junior
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.