Radomiak Radom vs Katowice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Sun, 8 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
0 Winner 1
Katowice Katowice
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 1:45 PM
|
Goal
Arkadiusz Jedrych - 45'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Radomiak Radom 0–1 Katowice. The result saw Katowice take the points. Katowice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Katowice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Heinig
B. Heinig
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Karski
?. Karski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Kos
D. Kos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Bohonos
D. Bohonos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Radomiak Radom G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
44.53%
Draw
26.6%
Away Katowice
28.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.44
47.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Katowice
Power Score
44.44
47.83
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.46
33.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.79
27.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom -0.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice +0.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
3 matches
Katowice Katowice Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:06:39+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Heinig
Łukasz Karski
Damian Kos
Dariusz Bohonos

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
63%
Katowice
37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
68 Dangerous attacks 43
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 3
25 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 3
9 Successful Dribbles 0
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0
6 Goal Attempts 3
25 Throwins 11
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 16
0 Hit Woodwork 1
68 Ball Safe 64

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
100 Attacks 85

Possession

472 Passes 239
363 Successful Passes 148
10 Key Passes 6
77 Successful Passes Percentage 62
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
35 Successful Long Passes 25
69 Long Passes 71

Defensive

1 Saves 2
3 Interceptions 13
10 Tackles 13

Build-up

39 Total Crosses 13
14 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Damian Rasak
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Sebastian Milewski
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Ilya Shkurin → Adam Zrelak
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Mateusz Wdowiak
9th Substitution
Event
Michal Kaput → Ibrahima Camará
8th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Salifou Soumah → Josh Wilson-Esbrand
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Romário Baró → Rafal Wolski
6th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Borja Galán → Erik Jirka
5th Substitution
Event
Rafal Wolski
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Märten Kuusk → Alan Czerwinski
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Damian Rasak → Mateusz Kowalczyk
4th Substitution
Event
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes → Elves Baldé
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba → Maurides Roque Junior
2nd Substitution
60'
53'
Event
Alan Czerwinski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Adrián Diéguez
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
37'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Katowice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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