Portsmouth vs Ipswich Town Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Tue, 14 Apr - 7:00 PM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
2 Winner 0
Ipswich Town IPS
Full Time Tue, 14 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Conor Shaughnessy - 42'
Colby Bishop - 44'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Portsmouth and Ipswich Town is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-0 to Portsmouth. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had identified Ipswich Town as the stronger side with a 46.1 percent implied likelihood of victory against just 26.3 percent for Portsmouth. The home team delivered an upset win despite entering the fixture as clear underdogs, capitalizing on early opportunities to lead 2-0 at half-time and then holding firm after the interval. Ipswich enjoyed the greater share of possession at 60 percent to Portsmouth’s 40 percent but were unable to create enough quality chances to get back into the contest. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the balance of play. With no xG data available, alignment with expected goals cannot be measured, yet the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns while the final outcome diverged sharply from the pre-match projection. Portsmouth’s clinical first-half display proved decisive, producing a result that underlined their capacity to exceed forecasts on the day against a favored opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portsmouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Lugg
N. Lugg
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
H. Gilroy
H. Gilroy
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
S. Allison
S. Allison
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
F. Hallam
F. Hallam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.3
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
1.03
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: W
Millwall Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: D
Leicester City Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
26.26%
Draw
27.62%
Away Ipswich Town
46.12%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portsmouth
-71.63%
Draw
+25.7%
Ipswich Town
+45.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.08
32.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Ipswich Town
Power Score
20.08
32.77
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Ipswich Town

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ipswich Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ipswich Town
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.75
25.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.58
36.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth +1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Ipswich Town -1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Ipswich Town
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ipswich Town
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Ipswich Town
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Ipswich Town
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Ipswich Town
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portsmouth
vs
Ipswich Town
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portsmouth Ipswich Town
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portsmouth 0.15
Ipswich Town 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portsmouth Ipswich Town
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portsmouth 0.00
Ipswich Town 0.03
Portsmouth
Ipswich Town
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PTM had peak pressure around 46'.
  • IPS started the game with stronger pressure.
PTM Pressure IPS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PTM reached the top pressure at 46' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
10 matches
Ipswich Town IPS Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
5
Goals
12
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
12
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-15T00:01:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Schmid
Austria
1 N. Schmid
T. Devlin
Northern Ireland
24 T. Devlin
R. Poole
Wales
5 R. Poole
C. Shaughnessy
Republic of Ireland
6 C. Shaughnessy
J. Williams
England
2 J. Williams
M. Pack
England
7 M. Pack
A. Dozzell
England
21 A. Dozzell
A. Segečić
Substitution
Australia
10 A. Segečić
J. Swift
Substitution
England
8 J. Swift
M. Alli
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
27 M. Alli
C. Bishop
England
9 C. Bishop
C. Walton
England
28 C. Walton
J. Greaves
England
24 J. Greaves
C. Kipre
Ivory Coast
4 C. Kipre
D. O'Shea
Republic of Ireland
26 D. O'Shea
D. Furlong
Substitution
England
19 D. Furlong
D. Neil
Substitution
England
6 D. Neil
A. Matusiwa
Substitution
Netherlands
5 A. Matusiwa
J. Clarke
Substitution
England
47 J. Clarke
M. Nuñez
Chile
32 M. Nuñez
K. McAteer
Substitution
England
20 K. McAteer
G. Hirst
England
9 G. Hirst

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 14, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Fratton Park
Capacity
20688
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Nigel Lugg
Hugh Gilroy
Samuel Allison
Farai Hallam

Statistics

Possession
PTM
43%
IPS
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 6
74 Dangerous attacks 87
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
17 Throwins 29
12 Goal Kicks 6
5 Successful Dribbles 8
19 Successful Headers 18
13 Dribble Attempts 16
77 Ball Safe 85
8 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 9

Attacking

134 Attacks 149
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

69 Long Passes 66
24 Successful Long Passes 42
73 Successful Passes Percentage 84
335 Passes 494
246 Successful Passes 414
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64
7 Key Passes 9

Defensive

12 Tackles 14
45 Duels Won 48
13 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 20
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
6.66
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Defender
6.57
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Defender
6.83
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy Defender
6.81
24
Terry Devlin
Terry Devlin Defender
6.95
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack Midfielder
6.94
8
John Swift
John Swift Midfielder
6.79
37
Keshi Anderson
Keshi Anderson
Midfielder71'
6.61
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic Midfielder
6.72
40
Jacob Brown
Jacob Brown
Attacker85'
6.57
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Midfielder
6.77
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Midfielder
6.64
17
Ibane Bowat
Ibane Bowat
Defender90+4'
6.59
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Attacker
6.68
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
6.91
4
Cédric Kipré
Cédric Kipré Defender
7.05
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Defender
6.86
18
Ben Johnson
Ben Johnson
Defender58'
6.71
24
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves Defender
7.07
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea Defender
7.04
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Midfielder
6.97
33
Anis Mehmeti
Anis Mehmeti
Midfielder58'
7.13
6
Dan Neil
Dan Neil Midfielder
6.72
29
Chuba Akpom
Chuba Akpom
Attacker71'
6.66
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer Midfielder
6.46
11
Jaden Philogene
Jaden Philogene
Attacker58'
7.06
32
Marcelino Núñez
Marcelino Núñez Midfielder
6.9
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke Midfielder
7
8
Sindre Walle Egeli
Sindre Walle Egeli
Attacker71'
6.63
9
George Hirst
George Hirst Attacker
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ibane Bowat → Millenic Alli
8th Substitution
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Jaden Philogene
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Brown → Adrian Segecic
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Terry Devlin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
81'
Event
Marcelino Núñez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Keshi Anderson → John Swift
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Chuba Akpom → Dan Neil
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Sindre Walle Egeli → Jack Clarke
6th Substitution
58'
Event
Anis Mehmeti → Azor Matusiwa
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Jaden Philogene → Kasey McAteer
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Ben Johnson → Darnell Furlong
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Colby Bishop
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
44'
Event
Conor Shaughnessy
Header / 1st Goal
42'
Event
Marlon Pack
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaden Philogene from Ipswich Town receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Portsmouth leading Ipswich Town 2-0.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Ibane Bowat replaces Millenic Alli.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Jaden Philogene from Ipswich Town attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top right corner by Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth.
90
Update Update
Keshi Anderson of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Greaves of Ipswich Town.
90
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town win a corner after Nicolas Schmid concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
90
Update Update
Chuba Akpom's header from close range is blocked after a cross from Sindre Egeli.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. George Hirst of Ipswich Town headed the ball from the center of the box.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jacob Brown replaces Adrian Segecic.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Terry Devlin of Portsmouth.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
82
Update Update
Jaden Philogene from Ipswich Town won a free kick on the left wing.
82
Update Update
Offside called against Portsmouth. Millenic Alli is offside.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Marcelino Núñez of Ipswich Town.
81
Attempt Attempt
Sindre Egeli's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. George Hirst provided the assist.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcelino Núñez of Ipswich Town receives a yellow card for a foul.
81
Update Update
Keshi Anderson of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
79
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner, conceded by Conor Shaughnessy.
76
Update Update
Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth won a free kick in an attacking position.
76
Update Update
Cédric Kipré fouled an Ipswich Town player.
75
Attempt Attempt
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Ben Johnson provided the assist.
73
Attempt Attempt
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box to the left. Ben Johnson provided the assist.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Keshi Anderson replaces John Swift.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Sindre Egeli replaces Jack Clarke.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Chuba Akpom replaces Dan Neil.
70
Update Update
Adrian Segecic of Portsmouth is called offside.
69
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Jaden Philogene from Ipswich Town won a free kick on the left wing.
67
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Marcelino Núñez from Ipswich Town takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Nicolas Schmid in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Anis Mehmeti of Portsmouth.
65
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by John Swift - Portsmouth.
65
Update Update
Dan Neil from Ipswich Town won a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
64
Update Update
Dara O'Shea fouled an Ipswich Town player.
63
Attempt Attempt
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town has a shot from outside the box with his left foot, but it is blocked.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Clarke of Ipswich Town.
63
Update Update
Andre Dozzell of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
59
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. Millenic Alli provided the assist.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Jaden Philogene replaces Kasey McAteer.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Ben Johnson replaces Darnell Furlong.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Anis Mehmeti replaces Azor Matusiwa.
57
Update Update
Darnell Furlong from Ipswich Town commits a foul.
57
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
53
Attempt Attempt
Colby Bishop's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
50
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Dara O'Shea from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
49
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kasey McAteer of Ipswich Town.
48
Update Update
Colby Bishop's header from the center of the box is blocked. Marlon Pack provided the assist with a cross.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Portsmouth leading Ipswich Town 2-0.
45
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Cédric Kipré concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Portsmouth 2, Ipswich Town 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. John Swift from Portsmouth shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
44
Attempt Attempt
John Swift's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Colby Bishop scores for Portsmouth with a left-footed shot from close range into the right corner. The score is now Portsmouth 2, Ipswich Town 0.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth leads 1-0 against Ipswich Town. Conor Shaughnessy scores for Portsmouth with a header from the center of the box after a corner.
41
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Jacob Greaves concedes.
40
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Dara O'Shea from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
39
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed. Terry Devlin provided the assist.
38
Update Update
Terry Devlin of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
38
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Millenic Alli of Portsmouth.
37
Update Update
Cédric Kipré from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
36
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after John Swift concedes.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
35
Update Update
George Hirst of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town won a free kick in the attacking area.
35
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Regan Poole of Portsmouth.
32
Attempt Attempt
George Hirst's shot for Ipswich Town from the center of the box is blocked.
32
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth is called offside.
28
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Jacob Greaves from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
27
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Millenic Alli from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved in the top center of the goal by Christian Walton from Ipswich Town. The assist comes from Andre Dozzell.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Christian Walton concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. John Swift from Portsmouth had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that missed after a fast break.
24
Corner Corner
Dan Neil from Ipswich Town had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. The shot was close but went to the left after a corner.
23
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Portsmouth. Jordan Williams shot with his right foot from the left side of the box but missed. John Swift provided the assist.
10
Update Update
Jordan Williams of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
10
Update Update
Kasey McAteer of Ipswich Town committed a foul.
7
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Conor Shaughnessy concedes.
7
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town won a free kick in an attacking position.
7
Attempt Attempt
George Hirst's shot for Ipswich Town from the center of the box is blocked. Kasey McAteer provided the assist.
7
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth commits a foul.
3
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
3
Update Update
Darnell Furlong fouled an Ipswich Town player.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Portsmouth exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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