Porto vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Estádio Do Dragão Thu, 9 Apr - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Porto POR
1 – 1
Nottingham Forest NFO
Full Time Thu, 9 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 1 of 2
William Gomes - 11'
Goal
|
Goal
Martim Fernandes - 13' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The finished game between Porto and Nottingham Forest concluded in a 1-1 draw in Leg 1 of 2 of their knockout tie, with the aggregate now standing at 1-1 after entering the match at 0-0. Both sides scored in the first half and remained level at the break, with no additional goals after halftime. Porto held a slight possession edge at 52 percent to 48 percent and were labeled the stronger team, yet the result showed a moderate 8.6 percent structural deviation attributed to them. No red cards were issued during the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Porto exhibited moderate structural deviation during the 1-1 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed owing to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The draw aligned with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for post-match review.
  • Event impact: First-half goals by both teams shaped the unchanged 1-1 scoreline in leg one.
  • Red card distortion: The match experienced no red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Peretti
G. Peretti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Marcenaro
M. Marcenaro
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Guida
M. Guida
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 W
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Viktoria Plzeň Rank: 73 D
Malmö FF Rank: 62 W
Nice Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 W
Ferencvárosi Rank: 70 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Porto
48.48%
Draw
28.79%
Away Nottingham Forest
22.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
Porto
+43.52%
Draw
-62.63%
Nottingham Forest
+19.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.86
84.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Porto
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
86.86
84.54
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
22
35

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Porto Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Porto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Porto ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.19
16.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.35
35.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Porto +1.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Nottingham Forest -1.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Porto
Nottingham Forest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Porto ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Porto Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Porto Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Porto
Nottingham Forest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Porto
vs
Nottingham Forest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Porto Nottingham Forest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Porto 0.35
Nottingham Forest 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Porto Nottingham Forest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Porto 0.03
Nottingham Forest 0.02
Porto
Nottingham Forest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Porto POR Home
1 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-10T00:01:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Meireles Costa
Portugal
99 D. Meireles Costa
M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
T. da Silva
Brazil
3 T. da Silva
J. Bednarek
Poland
5 J. Bednarek
Z. Sanusi
Nigeria
12 Z. Sanusi
S. Fofana
Substitution
Ivory Coast
42 S. Fofana
P. Rosario
Netherlands
13 P. Rosario
G. Veiga Novas
Substitution
Spain
10 G. Veiga Novas
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
Brazil
7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
T. Moffi
Substitution
Nigeria
29 T. Moffi
B. Sainz Eguskiza
Substitution
Spain
17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
S. Ortega Moreno
Germany
27 S. Ortega Moreno
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
Z. Abbott
England
44 Z. Abbott
D. Ndoye
Switzerland
14 D. Ndoye
N. Domínguez
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
R. Yates
England
22 R. Yates
D. Bakwa
Substitution
France
29 D. Bakwa
J. Mcatee
Substitution
England
24 J. Mcatee
M. Gibbs-White
Substitution
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
C. Wood
Substitution
New Zealand
11 C. Wood

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão
Capacity
50033
Attendance
46479
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Giorgio Peretti
Giuseppe Perrotti
Matteo Marcenaro
Marco Guida

Statistics

Possession
POR
53%
NFO
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 2
46 Dangerous attacks 37
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
18 Successful Headers 12
19 Throwins 9
23 Dribble Attempts 12
9 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
3 Goal Kicks 12
89 Ball Safe 100
1 Injuries 0
13 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

102 Attacks 102
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes 23
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
444 Successful Passes 411
507 Passes 474
49 Long Passes 51
14 Key Passes 6

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
2 Saves 7
7 Interceptions 9
51 Duels Won 37

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

4 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

99
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
3
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva Defender
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Defender
12
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi Defender
52
Martim Fernandes
Martim Fernandes Defender
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa
Defender19'
10
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga Midfielder
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt
Midfielder59'
13
Pablo Rosario
Pablo Rosario Midfielder
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana Midfielder
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela
Midfielder74'
7
William Gomes
William Gomes Attacker
17
Borja Sainz
Borja Sainz Attacker
11
Pepê
Pepê
Attacker59'
29
Terem Moffi
Terem Moffi Attacker
27
Deniz Gül
Deniz Gül
Attacker59'
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
4
Morato
Morato Defender
5
Murillo
Murillo Defender
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković
Defender46'
44
Zach Abbott
Zach Abbott Defender
14
Dan Ndoye
Dan Ndoye Midfielder
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates Midfielder
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa Midfielder
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams
Defender61'
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Attacker
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson
Attacker60'
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus
Attacker46'
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Attacker
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré
Midfielder74'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alan Varela → Seko Fofana
10th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Ibrahim Sangaré → James McAtee
9th Substitution
66'
Event
Igor Jesus
Goal disallowed
61'
Event
Neco Williams → Dilane Bakwa
8th Substitution
60'
Event
Omari Hutchinson  → Morgan Gibbs-White
7th Substitution
Event
Deniz Gül → Terem Moffi
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Victor Froholdt → Gabri Veiga
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Pepê → Borja Sainz
6th Substitution
59'
46'
Event
Igor Jesus → Chris Wood 
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nikola Milenković → Murillo
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alberto Costa → Martim Fernandes
1st Substitution
19'
Event
Gabri Veiga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
13'
Event
Martim Fernandes
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
William Gomes
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
FC Porto wins a corner after Dan Ndoye concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between FC Porto and Nottingham Forest.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Zach Abbott of Nottingham Forest.
90
Update Update
Dan Ndoye commits a foul for Nottingham Forest.
90
Update Update
William Gomes of FC Porto won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Pepê from FC Porto won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Thiago Silva of FC Porto heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Stefan Ortega of Nottingham Forest. The assist came from Alan Varela's cross.
87
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Costa's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Pepê provided the assist.
86
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Dan Ndoye of Nottingham Forest.
86
Attempt Attempt
Dan Ndoye's shot for Nottingham Forest from the center of the box is blocked. Nicolás Domínguez provided the assist.
85
Attempt Attempt
Alan Varela from FC Porto attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper Stefan Ortega, with the assist coming from Pablo Rosario.
82
Attempt Attempt
Alan Varela from FC Porto attempts a shot with his right foot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper, Stefan Ortega, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Pablo Rosario.
80
Update Update
Fouled by Pepê of FC Porto.
80
Attempt Attempt
Alan Varela from FC Porto missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
79
Update Update
Ryan Yates from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
75
Attempt Attempt
Victor Froholdt from FC Porto had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but just missing the target. Pepê provided the assist.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Ibrahim Sangaré replaces James McAtee.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Porto: Alan Varela replaces Seko Fofana.
72
Update Update
Handball by Morato for Nottingham Forest.
71
Corner Corner
FC Porto is awarded a corner after Nicolás Domínguez concedes.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Yates of Nottingham Forest.
70
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Gül's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Victor Froholdt.
69
Corner Corner
FC Porto wins a corner, conceded by Igor Jesus.
68
Corner Corner
FC Porto wins a corner after Stefan Ortega concedes.
68
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. William Gomes from FC Porto takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Stefan Ortega from Nottingham Forest. The assist was provided by Deniz Gül.
67
Update Update
Neco Williams commits a handball for Nottingham Forest.
66
Update Update
VAR decision: No goal. The match remains 1-1 between FC Porto and Nottingham Forest.
65
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Diogo Costa from FC Porto.
63
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Igor Jesus from Nottingham Forest takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's saved by Diogo Costa, the goalkeeper for FC Porto. The assist came from Omari Hutchinson.
63
Corner Corner
Goal! Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the top right corner. The score is now FC Porto 1, Nottingham Forest 2.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Neco Williams replaces Dilane Bakwa.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Omari Hutchinson replaces Morgan Gibbs-White.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Porto: Victor Froholdt replaces Gabri Veiga.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Porto: Deniz Gül replaces Terem Moffi.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Porto: Pepê replaces Borja Sainz.
58
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. James McAtee from Nottingham Forest takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Diogo Costa from FC Porto. The assist came from Morgan Gibbs-White.
52
Corner Corner
FC Porto is awarded a corner after Zach Abbott concedes.
52
Corner Corner
FC Porto is awarded a corner after Nicolás Domínguez concedes.
52
Corner Corner
FC Porto wins a corner after Nicolás Domínguez concedes.
51
Corner Corner
FC Porto wins a corner after Nicolás Domínguez concedes.
50
Update Update
Gabri Veiga from FC Porto won a free kick in an attacking position.
50
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez fouled a player from Nottingham Forest.
49
Attempt Attempt
William Gomes from FC Porto had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist was from Seko Fofana.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Terem Moffi of FC Porto heads the ball from the center of the box, but it is saved by Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper, Stefan Ortega, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Seko Fofana with a cross.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at FC Porto 1, Nottingham Forest 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Borja Sainz of FC Porto.
45
Update Update
Dilane Bakwa of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Borja Sainz of FC Porto won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Yates of Nottingham Forest.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Nikola Milenkovic replaces Murillo.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Igor Jesus replaces Chris Wood.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match tied at 1-1 between FC Porto and Nottingham Forest.
44
Update Update
Offside called against Nottingham Forest. Chris Wood is offside.
41
Update Update
Fouled by William Gomes of FC Porto.
41
Update Update
Dan Ndoye of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Pablo Rosario from FC Porto won a free kick in an attacking position.
40
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez of Nottingham Forest commits a foul.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Chris Wood from Nottingham Forest shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Yates of Nottingham Forest attempts a header from the center of the box, but it's saved by FC Porto's goalkeeper Diogo Costa. The assist came from Chris Wood.
37
Attempt Attempt
Gabri Veiga from FC Porto missed a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
35
Update Update
Zaidu Sanusi of FC Porto won a free kick in an attacking position.
35
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez fouled a player from Nottingham Forest.
34
Update Update
Pablo Rosario from FC Porto won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by James McAtee of Nottingham Forest.
28
Attempt Attempt
Dan Ndoye's shot for Nottingham Forest from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from James McAtee.
23
Update Update
Chris Wood is called offside for Nottingham Forest.
23
Attempt Attempt
Gabri Veiga's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
James McAtee's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Morato.
20
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after William Gomes concedes.
20
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest win a corner after Alberto Costa concedes.
19
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Porto: Alberto Costa replaces Martim Fernandes due to injury.
16
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Martim Fernandes from FC Porto.
15
Update Update
Dan Ndoye of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabri Veiga from FC Porto receives a yellow card for a foul.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabri Veiga of FC Porto.
13
Update Update
Offside called against Nottingham Forest. Dan Ndoye is offside.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Martim Fernandes for FC Porto. The match is now 1-1 against Nottingham Forest.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Porto leads 1-0 against Nottingham Forest. William Gomes scores for FC Porto with a left-footed shot from close range into the right corner, assisted by Gabri Veiga.
7
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Borja Sainz from FC Porto takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Borja Sainz of FC Porto makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but Stefan Ortega of Nottingham Forest saves it in the center of the goal.
1
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Terem Moffi of FC Porto takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Stefan Ortega of Nottingham Forest. The assist comes from Seko Fofana.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw in the first leg leaves the aggregate tied at 1-1, setting up an even contest for the return fixture. Porto held more possession and were viewed as the stronger side but could not secure a win, while the heavily favored draw materialized in a game where efficiency stayed in line and no red cards altered the flow. Absence of xG data limits assessment of chance quality, yet the result appears consistent with a competitive matchup between the sides.

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