Pogoń Szczecin vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Tomorrow - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
KICKOFF :
Tomorrow - 6:15 PM
Round 29 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
Sorry, standings could not be loaded right now.
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
In the Ekstraklasa regular season at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, 12th-placed Pogoń Szczecin host league leaders Lech Poznań in a matchup heavy on contrast. Lech arrive with a commanding 9.3-point power advantage, their 36.28 score towering over Pogoń's 27, underscoring superior squad depth and consistency. Recent form tilts further towards the visitors, with Lech's 27.11 edging Pogoń's 20.83, signaling momentum in their title charge. Pogoń, mired mid-table, seek a statement win at home but face a side that's dominated the division. Set-piece and efficiency metrics remain unavailable due to lacking xG data, leaving focus on raw power and transitions. Lech's top position amplifies expectations for control, while Pogoń must disrupt through grit.
TL;DR
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Structural: Lech Poznań leads the Ekstraklasa table in 1st, holding a 9.3-point power advantage over 12th-placed Pogoń Szczecin.
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Form: Lech enters with a form score of 27.11, superior to Pogoń Szczecin's 20.83.
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Squad: Lech's squad power rates at 36.28, ahead of Pogoń's 27.
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Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this fixture.
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Transition: Lech's higher power score suggests stronger transition play potential.
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Set pieces: Set-piece data unavailable with low confidence and no xG for either team.
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xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis.
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Market: Baseline split: Pogoń Szczecin 31.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Lech Poznań 43.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25
vs Team A
Feb 1
vs Team B
Feb 8
vs Team C
T. Thomasberg
VS
N. Frederiksen
1.41
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice
Rank:
W
Legia Warszawa
Rank:
L
Lechia Gdańsk
Rank:
L
Korona Kielce
Rank:
W
Raków Częstochowa
Rank:
L
Widzew Lodz
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice
Rank:
D
Jagiellonia Białystok
Rank:
D
Nieciecza
Rank:
W
Zagłębie Lubin
Rank:
W
Widzew Lodz
Rank:
L
Raków Częstochowa
Rank:
W
7
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 14 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Pogoń Szczecin
31.81%
Draw
24.78%
Lech Poznań
43.41%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27
36.28
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
Power Score
27
36.28
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Pogoń Szczecin
Pogoń Szczecin
Home
37
matches
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Away
Match Record
7
Wins
16
14
Draws
14
16
Losses
7
Goals
39
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
39
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-17T01:00:55+00:00
STARTING XI - EXPECTED
77 V. Cojocaru
3 K. Acosta
22 D. Lončar
41 A. Szalai
4 L. Borges da Silva
25 M. Agger
8 F. Ulvestad
6 J. Biegański
47 Natan Lawa
24 K. Angielski
18 P. Mukairu
41 B. Mrozek
15 M. Gurgul
72 M. Skrzypczak
27 W. Mońka
2 J. Vieira Pereira
14 L. Bengtsson
99 P. Delgado
43 A. Kozubal
8 A. Gholizadeh
10 P. Wålemark
9 M. Ishak
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity
18027
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Next Match
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Cracovia Kraków
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 6:15 PM
Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego
Lech Poznań
vs
Legia Warszawa
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Sun, 26 Apr - 3:30 PM
Venue: Enea stadion
Expected Lineup
Referee :
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Manager ▼
T. Thomasberg
Coach
Starting XI ▼
77
Valentin Cojocaru
Goalkeeper
7.1 47
N. Lawa
Midfielder
6.49 25
M. Agger
Midfielder
6.56 18
Paul Mukairu
Attacker
6.76 24
Karol Angielski
Attacker
6.59 6
Jan Bieganski
Central Midfield
6.66 8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Central Midfield
7.03 22
Danijel Loncar
Right Back
6.59 3
Kellyn Acosta
Right Back
6.72 4
Léo Borges
Left Back
6.95 41
Attila Szalai
Left Back
6.81 Substitutes ▼
7
Musa Juwara
6.98 10
Filip Cuic
6.5 11
Kamil Grosicki
7.1 19
Mor Ndiaye
6.83 20
Igor Brzyski
31
Krzysztof Kaminski
7.04 32
Leonardo Koutris
6.76 38
Rafał Jakubowski
61
Kacper Smolinski
6.64 90
Sam Greenwood
6.78 13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
6.89 23
Benjamin Mendy
6.43 30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
6.94
Referee :
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Manager ▼
N. Frederiksen
Coach
Starting XI ▼
41
Bartosz Mrozek
Goalkeeper
6.91 8
Ali Gholizadeh
Midfielder
7.08 14
Leo Bengtsson
Midfielder
6.74 9
Mikael Ishak
Attacker
7.22 10
Patrik Wålemark
Attacker
6.69 2
Joel Pereira
Right Back
7.15 15
Michal Gurgul
Left Back
6.8 27
Wojciech Monka
Right Back
6.93 43
Antoni Kozubal
Central Midfield
6.87 72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Left Back
6.76 99
Pablo Rodríguez
Central Midfield
6.82 Substitutes ▼
1
Plamen Andreev
6.8 11
Daniel Håkans
6.44 4
João Moutinho
6.5 6
Timothy Ouma
6.64 7
Yannick Agnero
6.63 16
Antonio Milic
6.93 20
Robert Gumny
6.63 23
Gísli Thórdarson
6.68 24
Filip Jagiello
6.88 53
Sammy Dudek
6.59 77
Luis Palma
7.21 88
Taofeek Ismaheel
6.94 CONCLUSION
Lech Poznań's structural dominance, topped by their league-leading position and power edge, positions them as clear favorites against mid-table Pogoń Szczecin. Superior form and squad quality should enable Lech to dictate tempo, exploiting transitions despite missing advanced metrics. Pogoń's home venue offers slim hope for an upset, but overcoming Lech's momentum demands flawless execution. Expect the leaders to grind out a victory, solidifying their title credentials in this Ekstraklasa encounter.