Piast Gliwice vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Mon, 13 Apr - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
0 Winner 2
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Fredrik Ulvestad - 22' (P)
Paul Mukairu - 45+2'

CONTEXT

The match between Piast Gliwice and Pogoń Szczecin is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-2 to the visitors. Pogoń Szczecin took a commanding 2-0 lead by halftime and held firm in the second period, securing all three points despite entering the fixture as the less-favored side. Pre-match forecasts positioned Piast Gliwice as the stronger team with the highest projected chance of victory. The actual result represented a significant deviation in favor of Pogoń Szczecin, who produced an outcome that did not align with those initial expectations. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the flow, yet the visitors proved far more clinical in front of goal. Piast Gliwice controlled 58 percent of possession to Pogoń Szczecin’s 42 percent but generated no reward from their territorial edge. With xG data unavailable, the efficiency shift stayed in line with general match patterns, underlining how Pogoń converted limited opportunities while Piast struggled to create clear chances. The away side’s disciplined defensive display ensured the lead was never seriously threatened after the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Pogoń Szczecin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
P. Podbielski
P. Podbielski
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
P. Wrzeszczyński
P. Wrzeszczyński
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.8
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Piast Gliwice
45.21%
Draw
26.28%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
28.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Piast Gliwice
+45.01%
Draw
+24.36%
Pogoń Szczecin
-69.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.16
27.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Piast Gliwice
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
27.16
27.12
League Position
13
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.93
15.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.71
32.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Piast Gliwice +1.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -1.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Piast Gliwice
vs
Pogoń Szczecin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Piast Gliwice 0.18
Pogoń Szczecin 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Piast Gliwice 0.04
Pogoń Szczecin 0.00
Piast Gliwice
Pogoń Szczecin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Pogoń Szczecin had peak pressure around 2'.
  • Pogoń Szczecin started the game with stronger pressure.
Piast Gliwice Pressure Pogoń Szczecin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Pogoń Szczecin reached the top pressure at 2' (78.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Home
31 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
8
Wins
12
11
Draws
11
12
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
24
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
K. Szymanski
Poland
33 K. Szymanski
E. Twumasi
Ghana
55 E. Twumasi
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
H. Vallejo Avilés
Substitution
Spain
80 H. Vallejo Avilés
A. Dalmau Vaquer
Substitution
Spain
9 A. Dalmau Vaquer
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
D. Lončar
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
K. Acosta
United States
3 K. Acosta
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
J. Biegański
Substitution
Poland
6 J. Biegański
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
K. Angielski
Substitution
Poland
24 K. Angielski

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
15139
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Łukasz Kuźma
P. Podbielski
Paweł Wrzeszczyński
Dawid Igor Golis

Statistics

Possession
Piast Gliwice
57%
Pogoń Szczecin
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 4
82 Dangerous attacks 52
58 Possession 42
11 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
11 Dribble Attempts 14
0 Penalties 1
3 Goal Kicks 16
24 Throwins 16
88 Ball Safe 93
8 Goal Attempts 3
6 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 83
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 69
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
347 Successful Passes 224
13 Key Passes 3
16 Successful Long Passes 18
435 Passes 323
49 Long Passes 71

Defensive

54 Duels Won 41
15 Interceptions 10
16 Tackles 14
1 Saves 2

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 1
34 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

13 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

33
Karol Szymanski
Karol Szymanski Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
7.04
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.86
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
6.73
55
Ema Twumasi
Ema Twumasi Defender
6.65
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.06
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6.83
70
Andreas Katsantonis
Andreas Katsantonis
Attacker73'
6.69
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo Midfielder
6.81
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca
Midfielder61'
6.98
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
6.81
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak
Midfielder61'
6.81
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.88
6
Michal Chrapek
Michal Chrapek
Midfielder72'
6.74
9
Adrián Dalmau
Adrián Dalmau Attacker
6.7
17
Quentin Boisgard
Quentin Boisgard
Midfielder61'
6.64
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.11
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Defender
6.62
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
6.93
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.54
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6.77
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski Midfielder
6.65
19
Mor Ndiaye
Mor Ndiaye
Midfielder88'
6.83
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
7.04
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
6.57
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Midfielder87'
6.92
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Midfielder
6.44
61
Kacper Smolinski
Kacper Smolinski
Midfielder80'
6.66
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Attacker
6.75
24
Karol Angielski
Karol Angielski Attacker
6.59
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder69'
7.12

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Mor Ndiaye → Jan Bieganski
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Jacek Samuel Czapliński → M. Agger
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Kacper Smolinski → N. Lawa
7th Substitution
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Michal Chrapek → Jorge Félix
5th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → Karol Angielski
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jan Bieganski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Quentin Boisgard → Adrián Dalmau
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Jason Lokilo
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Leandro Sanca → Hugo Vallejo
3rd Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Paul Mukairu
Goal awarded
45+2'
Event
Paul Mukairu
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
22'
Event
Fredrik Ulvestad
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Hugo Vallejo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
20'
Event
M. Agger
Penalty awarded

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Pogoń Szczecin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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