Parma vs Cremonese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Ennio Tardini Sat, 21 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Parma PRM
0 Winner 2
Cremonese USC
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Youssef Maleh - 54'
Jari Vandeputte - 68'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Cremonese securing a 2-0 away victory over Parma. After an even, goalless first half, Cremonese broke through in the second period to claim the win. This result marks a significant deviation favoring Cremonese over the pre-match expectations. Going into the fixture, Parma was viewed as the stronger team, boasting a 42.9% win probability against Cremonese's 26.9% and a 30.2% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite the upset, the final result was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG) data. Cremonese generated a slightly higher xG of 0.53 compared to Parma's 0.42. While the home side controlled the tempo with 52% possession to Cremonese's 48%, the visitors maximized their limited attacking sequences. The match's finishing efficiency shifted in line with the overall tight nature of the underlying metrics. Additionally, the game flowed without any major disciplinary interruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, Cremonese upset the market projections by leaning on a marginally superior offensive output to claim a deserved full-time victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cremonese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
VS
Cremonese M. Giampaolo
M. Giampaolo
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.68
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: 87 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Juventus Rank: 85 L
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: 68 L
AC Milan Rank: 87 L
Roma Rank: 84 L
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Inter Rank: 90 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Parma
42.94%
Draw
30.15%
Away Cremonese
26.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.81
57.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Parma
Cremonese
Power Score
70.81
57.43
League Position
12
17
Global Rank
180
247

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Cremonese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Parma Cremonese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cremonese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Parma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cremonese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.42
15.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.73
19.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Parma +0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Cremonese -0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Parma
Cremonese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Parma
vs
Cremonese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Parma Cremonese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Parma Cremonese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Parma
Cremonese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Parma PRM Home
7 matches
Cremonese USC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
6
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
A. Circati
Substitution
Australia
39 (C) A. Circati
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
L. Valenti
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
S. Britschgi
27 S. Britschgi
O. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
22 O. Jensen
M. Keita
Substitution
Belgium
16 M. Keita
E. Valeri
Italy
14 E. Valeri
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato
M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Argentina
9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
J. Ondrejka
Substitution
Sweden
17 J. Ondrejka
E. Audero Mulyadi
Italy
1 E. Audero Mulyadi
G. Pezzella
Italy
3 G. Pezzella
S. Luperto
Italy
5 S. Luperto
M. Bianchetti
Substitution
Italy
15 (C) M. Bianchetti
F. Terracciano
Italy
24 F. Terracciano
J. Vandeputte
Substitution
Belgium
27 J. Vandeputte
Y. Maleh
Morocco
29 Y. Maleh
A. Grassi
Italy
33 A. Grassi
A. Zerbin
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Zerbin
A. Sanabria Ayala
Substitution
Paraguay
99 A. Sanabria Ayala
F. Bonazzoli
Substitution
Italy
90 F. Bonazzoli

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Capacity
27906
Attendance
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Fabbri
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Alessandro Cipressa
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
PRM
51%
USC
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 11
52 Possession 48
3 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 7
5 Goal Attempts 5
32 Throwins 13
17 Dribble Attempts 9
7 Successful Dribbles 5
22 Successful Headers 13
69 Ball Safe 77
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

103 Attacks 70

Possession

398 Passes 387
46 Long Passes 72
17 Successful Long Passes 29
318 Successful Passes 319
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
5 Key Passes 4

Defensive

7 Tackles 20
4 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 1
51 Duels Won 57

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 9
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
20 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
6.44
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
6.14
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
6.68
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati (C) Defender
6.5
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Midfielder60'
6.65
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
7.01
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
6.25
8
Nahuel Estévez
Nahuel Estévez
Midfielder73'
6.75
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen Midfielder
6.21
21
Gaetano Oristanio
Gaetano Oristanio
Midfielder60'
6.07
27
Sascha Britschgi
Sascha Britschgi Midfielder
6.51
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
6.61
9
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo Pellegrino Attacker
6.51
17
Jacob Ondrejka
Jacob Ondrejka Attacker
6.41
23
Nesta Elphege
Nesta Elphege
Attacker73'
6.64
Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Audero
Emil Audero Goalkeeper
6.75
3
Giuseppe Pezzella
Giuseppe Pezzella Defender
6.91
5
Sebastiano Luperto
Sebastiano Luperto Defender
7.19
15
Matteo Bianchetti
Matteo Bianchetti (C) Defender
7.21
55
Francesco Folino
Francesco Folino
Defender89'
24
Filippo Terracciano
Filippo Terracciano Defender
7.32
7
Alessio Zerbin
Alessio Zerbin Midfielder
6.63
4
Tommaso Barbieri
Tommaso Barbieri
Defender46'
6.26
27
Jari Vandeputte
Jari Vandeputte Midfielder
7.5
2
Morten Thorsby
Morten Thorsby
Midfielder79'
6.41
29
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
7.72
33
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi Midfielder
6.98
90
Federico Bonazzoli
Federico Bonazzoli Attacker
7.25
32
Martín Payero
Martín Payero
Midfielder67'
6.35
99
Antonio Sanabria
Antonio Sanabria Attacker
6.43
10
Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy
Attacker67'
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lautaro Valenti
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Giuseppe Pezzella
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mariano Troilo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Martín Payero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Francesco Folino → Matteo Bianchetti
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Morten Thorsby → Jari Vandeputte
8th Substitution
Event
Nesta Elphege → Jacob Ondrejka
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Mandela Keita
7th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Jari Vandeputte
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
Jamie Vardy → Antonio Sanabria
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Martín Payero → Federico Bonazzoli
4th Substitution
Event
Jacob Ondrejka
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia → Alessandro Circati
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Gaetano Oristanio → Oliver Sørensen
3rd Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Youssef Maleh
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
Event
Tommaso Barbieri
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Tommaso Barbieri → Alessio Zerbin
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

14
Update Update
Antonio Sanabria from Cremonese committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino from Parma committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Youssef Maleh from Cremonese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Zion Suzuki from Parma has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
7
Update Update
Federico Bonazzoli from Cremonese committed a foul.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Cremonese after a deflection off Zion Suzuki.
6
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Cremonese, following a concession by Zion Suzuki.
5
Update Update
Oliver Sørensen from Parma has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
5
Update Update
Alberto Grassi from Cremonese committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Mandela Keita from Parma committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Alberto Grassi from Cremonese earned a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Cremonese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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