Paris vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Jean Bouin Fri, 10 Apr - 5:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris PFC
4 Winner 1
Monaco ASM
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Jonathan Ikoné - 4', 21'
Ciro Immobile - 8'
Luca Koleosho - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Folarin Balogun - 36'

CONTEXT

The match between Paris and Monaco is finished, ending with a full-time score of 4-1 to Paris. The home side led 3-1 at half-time and added one more goal after the break. This outcome showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, with Paris performing as anticipated in what was projected to be a comfortable home success. Monaco dominated possession at 65 percent to Paris's 35 percent but could not convert their territorial control into chances. No xG data is available to measure shot quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the result aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued and no major events disrupted the contest. Paris secured the win despite Monaco being regarded as the stronger team heading into the fixture, capitalising clinically on limited opportunities while the visitors were unable to respond. Overall the contest followed a predictable path after the early goals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paris showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Wattellier
E. Wattellier
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Y. El Hamzaoui
Y. El Hamzaoui
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Y. Boutry
Y. Boutry
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
T. Bouille
T. Bouille
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: D
Le Havre Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: D
Nice Rank: W
Toulouse Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: W
Brest Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: W
Angers SCO Rank: W
Lens Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Monaco
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.93
43.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris
Monaco
Power Score
23.93
43.95
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Monaco

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.00
37.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.00
37.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris +0.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Monaco +0.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
Monaco
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Monaco
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Monaco
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
Monaco
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris
vs
Monaco
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Monaco
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris 0.63
Monaco 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Monaco
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris 0.01
Monaco 0.21
Paris
Monaco
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ASM had peak pressure around 71'.
  • PFC started the game with stronger pressure.
PFC Pressure ASM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ASM reached the top pressure at 71' (82.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris PFC Home
1 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:01:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
A. Camara
Substitution
France
17 A. Camara
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
M. Mbow
Senegal
5 M. Mbow
N. Sangui
France
19 N. Sangui
P. Lees Melou
France
33 P. Lees Melou
N. Ikoné
Substitution
France
93 N. Ikoné
M. Munetsi
Zimbabwe
18 M. Munetsi
M. Lopez
Substitution
France
21 M. Lopez
M. Simon
Substitution
Nigeria
27 M. Simon
C. Immobile
Substitution
Italy
36 C. Immobile
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
W. Faes
Belgium
25 W. Faes
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
T. Kehrer
Substitution
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
S. Adingra
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
A. Bamba
France
23 A. Bamba
L. Camara
Substitution
Senegal
15 L. Camara
J. Teze
Substitution
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
A. Fati
Spain
31 A. Fati
F. Balogun
Substitution
England
9 F. Balogun
M. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
28 M. Coulibaly

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity
15097
Attendance
16520
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Eric Wattellier
Youssef El Hamzaoui
Yannick Boutry
Thierry Bouille

Statistics

Possession
PFC
38%
ASM
62%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 8
19 Dangerous attacks 101
35 Possession 65
1 Corners 11
6 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 5
16 Dribble Attempts 20
3 Assists 1
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
9 Successful Headers 14
9 Successful Dribbles 9
15 Throwins 22
9 Goal Attempts 9
83 Ball Safe 70
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
70 Attacks 133

Possession

9 Key Passes 16
75 Successful Passes Percentage 86
331 Passes 613
64 Long Passes 41
20 Successful Long Passes 26
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63
248 Successful Passes 525

Defensive

15 Interceptions 8
15 Tackles 14
39 Duels Won 42
4 Saves 2

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 32
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

5 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara Defender
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré
Defender65'
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
18
Marshall Munetsi
Marshall Munetsi Midfielder
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez Midfielder
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo
Midfielder65'
27
Moses Simon
Moses Simon Midfielder
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels
Attacker87'
33
Pierre Lees-Melou
Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné Midfielder
2
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho
Attacker65'
36
Ciro Immobile
Ciro Immobile Attacker
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory
Attacker75'
Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
8
Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba
Midfielder69'
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Defender
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes Defender
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
27
Krépin Diatta
Krépin Diatta
Midfielder46'
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa
Defender46'
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba Midfielder
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
14
Mika Biereth
Mika Biereth
Attacker87'
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly Attacker
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche
Midfielder69'
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Willem Geubbels → Moses Simon
10th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Mika Biereth → Folarin Balogun
9th Substitution
Event
Alimami Gory → Ciro Immobile
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Luca Koleosho
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
71'
69'
Event
Maghnes Akliouche → Mamadou Coulibaly
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Paul Pogba → Thilo Kehrer
7th Substitution
Event
Rudy Matondo → Maxime Lopez
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Hamari Traoré → Adama Camara
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Luca Koleosho → Jonathan Ikoné
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Adama Camara
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
46'
Event
Krépin Diatta → J. Teze
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Christian Mawissa → Lamine Camara
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jonathan Ikoné
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
21'
Event
Ciro Immobile
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
8'
Event
Jonathan Ikoné
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Alimami Gory from Paris FC misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. Luca Koleosho provided the assist.
90
Update Update
That's all. The game finishes with Paris FC winning 4-1 against Monaco.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Paris FC winning 4-1 against Monaco.
90
Corner Corner
Monaco is awarded a corner after Rudy Matondo concedes it.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Nhoa Sangui concedes.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Willem Geubbels replaces Moses Simon due to injury.
87
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Mika Biereth replaces Ansu Fati.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Alimami Gory concedes.
75
Update Update
Nhoa Sangui of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Alimami Gory replaces Ciro Immobile.
74
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco commits a foul.
71
Corner Corner
Goal! Paris FC leads 4-1 against Monaco. Luca Koleosho scores for Paris FC with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the top right corner.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Folarin Balogun from Monaco misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the ball goes high.
70
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho from Paris FC had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left. The assist was provided by Ciro Immobile after a fast break.
69
Corner Corner
Monaco wins a corner after Diego Coppola concedes.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Maghnes Akliouche replaces Mamadou Coulibaly.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Paul Pogba replaces Thilo Kehrer.
66
Update Update
Offside called against Monaco. Simon Adingra is offside.
65
Attempt Attempt
Krépin Diatta of Monaco missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Simon Adingra's cross.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Rudy Matondo replaces Maxime Lopez.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Luca Koleosho replaces Jonathan Ikoné due to injury.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Hamari Traoré replaces Adama Camara.
63
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC.
63
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra's shot for Monaco from the center of the box is blocked. Aladji Bamba provided the assist.
60
Update Update
Ansu Fati's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Folarin Balogun.
60
Update Update
Denis Zakaria fouled a player from Monaco.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adama Camara of Paris FC receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Update Update
Ciro Immobile of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Simon Adingra of Monaco won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Adama Camara of Paris FC.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Moses Simon of Paris FC.
57
Update Update
Aladji Bamba from Monaco won a free kick in defense.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after a concession by Denis Zakaria.
49
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Ikoné's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Maxime Lopez.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ciro Immobile's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but the ball went to the left.
47
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Marshall Munetsi of Paris FC shoots with his left foot from the right side of the six-yard box, but the goalkeeper Lukás Hrádecky of Monaco makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist came from Jonathan Ikoné.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but sending the ball high.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ansu Fati from Monaco makes an attacking attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Paris FC goalkeeper Kevin Trapp, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Jordan Teze.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Paris FC leading 3-1 against Monaco.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Paris FC 3, Monaco 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Christian Mawissa replaces Lamine Camara.
45
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Lamine Camara fouled a player from Monaco.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Krépin Diatta replaces Jordan Teze.
42
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco commits a foul.
42
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC won a free kick in an attacking position.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC.
41
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly of Monaco commits a foul.
40
Update Update
Simon Adingra from Monaco won a free kick on the left wing.
40
Update Update
Aladji Bamba of Monaco attempts a header from the center of the box, but Kevin Trapp of Paris FC makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist came from Lamine Camara, who delivered a cross.
38
Update Update
Moses Simon of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
38
Update Update
Moses Simon of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Folarin Balogun scores for Monaco with a right-footed shot from the center of the box. The match stands at Paris FC 3, Monaco 1.
35
Update Update
Offside called against Monaco. Jordan Teze is offside.
34
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, and the ball goes high. Simon Adingra provided the assist.
32
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Folarin Balogun from Monaco shot with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after being conceded by Aladji Bamba.
30
Update Update
Offside called against Monaco. Ansu Fati is in an offside position.
28
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC.
28
Corner Corner
Monaco wins a corner after Pierre Lees-Melou concedes.
26
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco won a free kick on the left wing.
24
Update Update
Ciro Immobile of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Denis Zakaria fouled a player from Monaco.
21
Update Update
Maxime Lopez from Paris FC misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high. The assist was provided by Marshall Munetsi.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ciro Immobile of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after a concession by Marshall Munetsi.
20
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ansu Fati of Monaco has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by Paris FC's goalkeeper Kevin Trapp, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Folarin Balogun.
20
Corner Corner
Monaco earns a corner after Kevin Trapp concedes.
20
Corner Corner
Goal! Paris FC leads 3-0 against Monaco. Jonathan Ikoné scores for Paris FC with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Ciro Immobile after a fast break.
17
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Simon Adingra of Monaco has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by Paris FC goalkeeper Kevin Trapp, assisted by Aladji Bamba.
16
Attempt Attempt
Ansu Fati's shot from outside the box is blocked. Simon Adingra provided the assist.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Diego Coppola concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Monaco is awarded a corner after Pierre Lees-Melou concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after a concession by Diego Coppola.
14
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Lopez from Paris FC attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but the shot is saved.
12
Update Update
Moses Simon of Paris FC is flagged for offside.
12
Corner Corner
Wout Faes from Monaco missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Lamine Camara, who delivered a cross following a corner.
11
Corner Corner
Monaco wins a corner after Pierre Lees-Melou concedes.
11
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Camara's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ansu Fati provided the assist.
10
Update Update
Jordan Teze from Monaco won a free kick in defense.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris FC lead 2-0 against Monaco. Ciro Immobile scores for Paris FC with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the high center of the goal, assisted by Marshall Munetsi.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris FC leads 1-0 against Monaco. Jonathan Ikoné scores with a right-footed shot from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Moses Simon's cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Paris exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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