Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Parc des Princes Wed, 11 Mar - 8:00 PM
Champions League
Paris Saint Germain PSG
5 Winner 2
Chelsea CHE
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 8:00 PM
Bradley Barcola - 10'
Ousmane Dembélé - 40'
Vitinha - 74'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - 86', 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Malo Gusto - 28'
Enzo Fernández - 57'

CONTEXT

The match between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea has finished with a commanding 5-2 victory for the home side. Paris Saint Germain carried a narrow 2-1 lead into the halftime break before accelerating away in the second half. The hosts controlled the overall tempo of the game, dictating play with 58% of the possession compared to Chelsea's 42%. Before kickoff, the pre-match market favored Paris Saint Germain with a 48.1% implied win probability, alongside a 24.5% chance for a draw and a 27.3% chance for a Chelsea upset. The full-time outcome aligned completely with these pre-match market expectations. However, the high-scoring nature of the victory resulted in a significant deviation level of 51.9% favoring Paris Saint Germain, reflecting a wider performance gap than initially projected. The match was played cleanly without any red cards to disrupt either team's tactical setup. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be assessed whether the final scoreline aligned perfectly with the underlying chance quality. Despite the absence of xG metrics, the overall efficiency shift was in line with pre-match dynamics, confirming the pre-match favorites executed their advantage as expected.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paris Saint Germain showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
J. Munuera Montero
J. Munuera Montero
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
D. Sánchez Rojo
D. Sánchez Rojo
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 91 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Athletic Club Rank: 79 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 98 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 95 W
Qarabağ Rank: D
Ajax Rank: 77 W
Benfica Rank: 87 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 98 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
48.14%
Draw
24.53%
Away Chelsea
27.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
92.38
52.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
Power Score
92.38
52.52
League Position
11
6
Global Rank
8
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Chelsea

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.43
24.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.64
20.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris Saint Germain -0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Chelsea +0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Chelsea
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Chelsea
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
2 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
0
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:07:57+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 11, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Capacity
48583
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Luis Munuera Montero
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Diego Sánchez Rojo

Statistics

Possession
PSG
56%
CHE
44%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 1
57 Dangerous attacks 27
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 5
12 Throwins 26
15 Dribble Attempts 14
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
3 Goal Kicks 5
5 Successful Headers 6
4 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
79 Ball Safe 88
9 Goal Attempts 6
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

98 Attacks 77
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 83
587 Passes 418
518 Successful Passes 349
45 Long Passes 46
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
25 Successful Long Passes 19
8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

23 Tackles 19
11 Interceptions 10
2 Saves 3
40 Duels Won 43

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
4 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

14 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
90+4'
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho → Malo Gusto
7th Substitution
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
86'
83'
Event
Liam Delap → João Pedro
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Roméo Lavia → Cole Palmer
6th Substitution
80'
Event
João Pedro
Var
Event
Lucas Hernández → Warren Zaïre-Emery
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Senny Mayulu → Bradley Barcola
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Vitinha
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
74'
Event
Kang-in Lee → Ousmane Dembélé
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia → Désiré Doué
1st Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Enzo Fernández
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
40'
28'
Event
Malo Gusto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Bradley Barcola
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Match interruption - Paris Saint Germain.
90
Update Update
Liam Delap from Chelsea committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Lucas Hernández from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Nuno Mendes has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score reading Paris Saint Germain 5, Chelsea 2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain leads Chelsea 5-2. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner. The assist came from Achraf Hakimi.
88
Update Update
Offside call against Chelsea. Liam Delap has been caught in an offside position.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Alejandro Garnacho comes on to replace Malo Gusto.
88
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia commits a foul against Paris Saint-Germain.
88
Update Update
Reece James from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint-Germain has been shown a yellow card.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain leads Chelsea 4-2. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner. The assist came from Willian Pacho.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Liam Delap from Chelsea took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. Reece James provided the assist.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Roméo Lavia is coming on to replace Cole Palmer.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap comes on to replace João Pedro.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
82
Update Update
Match is currently on hold - Paris Saint-Germain.
81
Update Update
Wesley Fofana of Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Offside call against Chelsea. Enzo Fernández has been caught in an offside position.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Senny Mayulu comes on to replace Bradley Barcola.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Lucas Hernández comes on to replace Warren Zaïre-Emery.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Paris Saint-Germain, following a deflection off Wesley Fofana.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain takes the lead with a score of 3-2 against Chelsea. Vitinha scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
74
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Malo Gusto from Chelsea attempts a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Pedro Neto, who delivered a cross.
72
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Bradley Barcola committed a foul for Paris Saint Germain.
71
Update Update
Malo Gusto from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Lee Kang-In replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
63
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint-Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea committed a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia comes on to replace Désiré Doué.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Paris Saint Germain 2, Chelsea 2. Enzo Fernández scores for Chelsea with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
55
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint-Germain commits a handball.
53
Update Update
João Pedro is currently playing against Chelsea.
53
Update Update
Willian Pacho of Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after João Neves allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Marquinhos committed a foul for Paris Saint-Germain.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Paris Saint Germain 2, Chelsea 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Paris Saint-Germain leading Chelsea 2-1.
44
Update Update
Reece James from Chelsea has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Nuno Mendes committed a foul for Paris Saint Germain.
42
Update Update
Cole Palmer from Chelsea earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
42
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Chelsea. Ousmane Dembélé scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the left corner of the net. The assist came from Désiré Doué, who set him up with a perfectly timed through ball during a quick counter-attack.
39
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Cole Palmer from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Matvey Safonov, the goalkeeper for Paris Saint-Germain, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Reece James.
30
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain earned a free kick on the right flank.
30
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea committed a foul.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea. Malo Gusto scores for Chelsea with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending the ball straight into the center of the net. The assist came from Enzo Fernández.
26
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Willian Pacho from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Bradley Barcola.
25
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved in the right corner by Chelsea's Filip Jörgensen, with the assist coming from Vitinha.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Filip Jörgensen allowed the ball to go out.
24
Update Update
Marc Cucurella of Chelsea commits a handball.
23
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as João Pedro of Chelsea heads the ball from the center of the box, but Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint Germain makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Marc Cucurella, who delivered a precise cross.
20
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. João Pedro from Chelsea attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Enzo Fernández.
19
Update Update
Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Cole Palmer from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Willian Pacho from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
17
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint Germain takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Filip Jörgensen from Chelsea makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top left corner. The assist came from Désiré Doué.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Enzo Fernández from Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain takes the lead, 1-0 against Chelsea. Bradley Barcola scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist comes from João Neves, who set him up with a header.
8
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after João Neves allowed the ball to go out.
6
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Chelsea after Vitinha allowed the ball to go out.
5
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as João Neves from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped by Chelsea's goalkeeper, Filip Jörgensen, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Bradley Barcola is caught in an offside position.
4
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! João Pedro from Chelsea took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Reece James, who delivered a cross.
3
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Paris Saint Germain exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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