Olympique Lyonnais vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Ligue 1
Monaco
ASM
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Olympique Lyonnais and Monaco has finished, with Monaco securing a 2-0 full-time victory. Heading into the fixture, expectations were incredibly tight. The pre-match market marginally favored the visitors with a 36.8% win probability compared to Lyon's 36.3%, leaving a 26.8% chance of a draw. Ultimately, the result aligned with this pre-match market edge, representing a significant deviation level of 63.2% in Monaco's favor. Despite Olympique Lyonnais controlling the ball with 57% possession compared to Monaco's 43%, the visitors were vastly superior in generating dangerous opportunities. Monaco amassed a dominant 2.89 expected goals (xG) against Lyon's 1.19. The final outcome was entirely consistent with this underlying xG differential, and both teams' offensive efficiency was perfectly in line with the quality of chances created. The flow of the game was heavily disrupted by disciplinary issues, as both sides were reduced to ten men after each received a red card. These ejections forced crucial second-half adjustments and created a red card distortion that impacted the match's tempo. In the end, Monaco handled the chaotic elements better, validating their status as the stronger team to claim the away win.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Monaco showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Team Power Ranking
i
80.82
81.21
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Olympique Lyonnais
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Olympique Lyonnais
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Olympique Lyonnais
Monaco
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:27+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Olympique Lyonnais
vs
Angers SCO
League: Ligue 1
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 1:00 PM
Venue: Away
Monaco
vs
Olympique Marseille
League: Ligue 1
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 6:45 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Manager ▼
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Match Commentary