OH Leuven vs Antwerp Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
1 Winner 0
Antwerp ANT
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Sory Kaba - 90'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Zeno Van Den Bosch 50'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with OH Leuven securing a 1-0 victory over Antwerp after a scoreless first half. Coming into the fixture, OH Leuven carried a 47.6% pre-match win probability, making them the market favorites compared to Antwerp's 25.3% and a 27.1% chance of a draw. The final outcome perfectly aligned with these pre-match market expectations, representing a significant deviation level for the victorious OH Leuven side against an Antwerp squad traditionally viewed as the stronger team. The underlying statistics strongly supported the final scoreline, as the outcome was entirely consistent with expected goals. OH Leuven generated a commanding 1.89 xG compared to a minimal 0.24 xG from the visitors. The hosts also controlled the tempo, holding a slight edge with 53% possession to Antwerp's 47%. The match dynamics were heavily influenced by disciplinary issues, with Antwerp receiving a red card that caused considerable second-half distortion. This numerical advantage and overall statistical dominance resulted in an efficiency shift that was completely in line with pre-match projections. Ultimately, OH Leuven effectively capitalized on their extra man and superior shot quality to claim a thoroughly deserved clean-sheet victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: OH Leuven showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 W
Westerlo Rank: 69 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Gent Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 68 D
La Louvière Rank: 66 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
47.62%
Draw
27.11%
Away Antwerp
25.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.46
70.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Antwerp
Power Score
67.46
70.12
League Position
12
10
Global Rank
257
196

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Antwerp

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antwerp
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.58
13.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.62
38.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven +2.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Antwerp -2.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Antwerp
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven
vs
Antwerp
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Antwerp
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Antwerp
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
OH Leuven
Antwerp
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
11 matches
Antwerp ANT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
5
Draws
5
5
Losses
1
Goals
14
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
14
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Prévôt
France
16 M. Prévôt
H. Teklab
Substitution
Germany
14 H. Teklab
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
N. Dussenne
Substitution
Belgium
3 N. Dussenne
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
T. Verlinden
Substitution
Belgium
7 T. Verlinden
B. Verstraete
Substitution
Belgium
4 B. Verstraete
S. Schrijvers
Belgium
8 (C) S. Schrijvers
Y. Maziz
France
10 Y. Maziz
C. Ikwuemesi
Substitution
Nigeria
19 C. Ikwuemesi
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
G. Bijl
Substitution
Netherlands
23 G. Bijl
Y. Tsunashima
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
Z. Van Den Bosch
Belgium
33 Z. Van Den Bosch
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
Xander Dierckx
Substitution
Belgium
78 Xander Dierckx
D. Praet
Belgium
8 D. Praet
S. Renders
Belgium
17 S. Renders
G. Kerk
Substitution
Netherlands
7 G. Kerk
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
V. Janssen
Substitution
Netherlands
18 (C) V. Janssen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity
10020
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vito Divincenzo
Wim Smet
Nicolas Laforge
Laurent Conotte

Statistics

Possession
OHL
54%
ANT
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 0
69 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 13
19 Successful Headers 16
21 Throwins 23
15 Dribble Attempts 19
74 Ball Safe 92
9 Goal Attempts 4
3 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

Attacking

111 Attacks 75
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

47 Successful Long Passes 28
80 Successful Passes Percentage 75
289 Successful Passes 248
72 Long Passes 72
362 Passes 332
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
14 Key Passes 3

Defensive

22 Tackles 19
7 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 3

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 15
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxence Prévot
Maxence Prévot Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Noë Dussenne
Noë Dussenne Defender
7.22
99
Davis Opoku
Davis Opoku
Defender83'
6.51
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Defender
6.71
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba
Attacker63'
7.15
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
7.04
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Defender
7.34
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
7.5
4
Birger Verstraete
Birger Verstraete Midfielder
6.91
6
Wouter George
Wouter George
Midfielder83'
6.48
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden Midfielder
6.48
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder72'
6.43
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers (C) Midfielder
7.64
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Midfielder
7.3
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi Attacker
6.58
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen
Attacker83'
6.45
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
6.64
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
6.94
23
G. Bijl
G. Bijl Defender
7.41
25
Kiki Kouyaté
Kiki Kouyaté
Defender87'
33
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Zeno Van Den Bosch Defender
5.93
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
6.85
17
Semm Renders
Semm Renders Midfielder
6.58
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Midfielder
6.9
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx Midfielder
6.68
56
Eran Tuypens
Eran Tuypens
Defender71'
6.6
7
Gyrano Kerk
Gyrano Kerk Attacker
6.88
9
Marwan Alsahafi
Marwan Alsahafi
Attacker87'
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Attacker
6.74
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen (C) Attacker
6.47
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui
Midfielder78'
6.21

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sory Kaba
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Sory Kaba
Header / 1st Goal
90'
87'
Event
Kiki Kouyaté → G. Bijl
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Marwan Alsahafi → Gyrano Kerk
9th Substitution
Event
Youssef Maziz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Wouter George → Birger Verstraete
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Kyan Vaesen → Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Davis Opoku → Noë Dussenne
6th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
G. Bijl
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui → Vincent Janssen
4th Substitution
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Thibaud Verlinden
3rd Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Eran Tuypens → Xander Dierckx
2nd Substitution
Event
Sory Kaba → Henok Teklab
1st Substitution
63'
50'
Event
Vincent Janssen
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
50'
Event
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
28'
Event
Yuto Tsunashima
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
Event
Vincent Janssen
Goal disallowed
Event
Noë Dussenne
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: OH Leuven exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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