Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa League
FC Midtjylland
FCM
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between Nottingham Forest and FC Midtjylland has finished, with the visiting side claiming a 1-0 full-time victory. Following a scoreless first half that left the teams completely even at the break, FC Midtjylland eventually found the decisive goal in the second period to secure the win. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Nottingham Forest entered the contest as the stronger team, boasting a 61.9% implied probability of winning. In contrast, FC Midtjylland defied their slim 16.7% market likelihood to pull off the upset. As a result, the final outcome completely failed to align with the initial betting markets. On the pitch, Nottingham Forest controlled the majority of the play with 57% possession compared to FC Midtjylland's 43%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the underlying scoring chances. Despite the upset victory, the post-match efficiency shift was calculated to be in line with overall performance metrics. Finally, the match was played without any major disciplinary disruptions; no red cards were issued to either side, ensuring the upset was driven by performance rather than a numerical advantage.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Midtjylland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Team Power Ranking
i
84.08
79.39
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Nottingham Forest
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Nottingham Forest
⚠ Proxy
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:02:25+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary