Nordsjælland vs Brøndby IF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Right to Dream Park Tue, 7 Apr - 5:00 PM
Superliga
Nordsjælland FCN
2 Winner 1
Brøndby IF BIF
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
Alexander Lind - 59'
Ibrahim Adel - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Jacob Ambaek - 45+1'

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, with Nordsjælland securing a 2-1 full-time victory over Brøndby IF. Despite trailing 1-0 at half-time, the home side rallied in the second half to claim the win. Pre-match expectations favored Nordsjælland, who were given a 44.2% win probability, compared to a 26.8% chance for a draw and 29.1% for a Brøndby IF upset. Because the stronger team won, the final result ultimately aligned with the pre-match market. However, overcoming the half-time deficit meant Nordsjælland's victory involved a significant deviation level of 55.8% from in-game expectations. On the pitch, Nordsjælland maintained a slight edge in control, recording 53% possession against Brøndby's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was strictly consistent with xG generation. Despite this missing metric, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated as being in line with standard expectations. Finally, the flow of the contest was completely unaffected by severe disciplinary events, as neither team received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Sabic
A. Sabic
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
L. Graagaard
L. Graagaard
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
V. Skytte
V. Skytte
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Nielsen
J. Nielsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
VS
Brøndby IF S. Cooper
S. Cooper
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 W
Viborg FF Rank: 63 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 D
FC København Rank: 67 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 70 D
Viborg FF Rank: 62 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 D
Viborg FF Rank: 63 L
Randers FC Rank: 60 D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 15 - 39
39

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nordsjælland
44.15%
Draw
26.77%
Away Brøndby IF
29.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.02
64.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nordsjælland
Brøndby IF
Power Score
66.02
64.61
League Position
6
6
Global Rank
281
319

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Brøndby IF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nordsjælland Brøndby IF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brøndby IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brøndby IF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.00
23.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.09
30.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nordsjælland +0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Brøndby IF -0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nordsjælland
Brøndby IF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brøndby IF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nordsjælland Brøndby IF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nordsjælland Brøndby IF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nordsjælland
Brøndby IF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nordsjælland
vs
Brøndby IF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nordsjælland Brøndby IF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nordsjælland 0.22
Brøndby IF 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nordsjælland Brøndby IF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nordsjælland 0.02
Brøndby IF 0.03
Nordsjælland
Brøndby IF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 69 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nordsjælland FCN Home
69 matches
Brøndby IF BIF Away
Match Record
15
Wins
39
15
Draws
15
39
Losses
15
Goals
79
Goals Scored
131
131
Goals Conceded
79
-52
Goal Difference
+52
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:02:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
P. Ankersen
Denmark
2 P. Ankersen
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 T. Salquist
C. Yirenkyi
36 C. Yirenkyi
J. Lähteenmäki
Substitution
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
J. Meltofte Janssen
18 J. Meltofte Janssen
M. Brink Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
6 M. Brink Christensen
R. Norheim
Substitution
Norway
23 R. Norheim
M. Lamine Sadio
Senegal
37 M. Lamine Sadio
A. Rasmussen
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Rasmussen
P. Amoako Junior
Substitution
10 P. Amoako Junior
P. Pentz
Austria
1 P. Pentz
M. Köhlert
Germany
27 M. Köhlert
J. Vanlerberghe
Substitution
Belgium
30 J. Vanlerberghe
B. Godfrey
England
14 B. Godfrey
O. Villadsen
Denmark
2 O. Villadsen
D. Wass
Substitution
Denmark
10 D. Wass
B. Slisz
Poland
99 B. Slisz
O. Sow
Substitution
France
22 O. Sow
N. Vallys
Denmark
7 N. Vallys
M. Divković
Substitution
Croatia
24 M. Divković
J. Brøchner Ambæk
Substitution
38 J. Brøchner Ambæk

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
Right to Dream Park
Capacity
9200
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Amir Sabic
Lasse Læbel Graagaard
Victor Skytte
Jesper Nielsen

Statistics

Possession
FCN
53%
BIF
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 8
58 Dangerous attacks 57
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 8
18 Throwins 13
18 Dribble Attempts 21
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
6 Goal Kicks 9
2 Assists 1
3 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 3
84 Ball Safe 86
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

92 Attacks 91
3 Counter Attacks 0
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
534 Passes 455
12 Key Passes 6
457 Successful Passes 377
45 Long Passes 48
22 Successful Long Passes 24
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

45 Duels Won 40
8 Interceptions 12
16 Tackles 16
2 Saves 5

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 22
4 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Lasse Læbel Graagaard

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist Defender
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink Midfielder
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde
Midfielder66'
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
32
Victor Gustafsen
Victor Gustafsen
Defender80'
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
15
Stephen Acquah
Stephen Acquah
Defender81'
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel
Midfielder66'
11
Alexander Lind
Alexander Lind Attacker
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker74'
37
Mamadou Sadio
Mamadou Sadio Attacker
Referee : Lasse Læbel Graagaard

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Pentz
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper
2
Oliver Villadsen
Oliver Villadsen Defender
14
Ben Godfrey
Ben Godfrey Defender
27
Mats Köhlert
Mats Köhlert Defender
30
Jordi Vanlerberghe
Jordi Vanlerberghe Defender
29
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Midfielder90+5'
7
Nicolai Vallys
Nicolai Vallys Midfielder
10
Daniel Wass
Daniel Wass Midfielder
42
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen
Midfielder69'
22
Ousmane Sow
Ousmane Sow Midfielder
23
Mayckel Lahdo
Mayckel Lahdo
Attacker69'
24
Marko Divkovic
Marko Divkovic Midfielder
19
Sho Fukuda
Sho Fukuda
Attacker82'
99
Bartosz Slisz
Bartosz Slisz Midfielder
38
Jacob Ambaek
Jacob Ambaek Attacker
17
Emmanuel Dennis
Emmanuel Dennis
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Levy Nene
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+5'
Event
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen → Jordi Vanlerberghe
10th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Adel
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
82'
Event
Sho Fukuda → Marko Divkovic
9th Substitution
Event
Stephen Acquah → Juho Lähteenmäki
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Victor Gustafsen → Runar Norheim
7th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Mathias Jensen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Levy Nene → Alexander Lind
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Ibrahim Adel
Goal disallowed
70'
69'
Event
Mayckel Lahdo → Ousmane Sow
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Mathias Jensen → Daniel Wass
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Emmanuel Dennis → Jacob Ambaek
3rd Substitution
Event
Malte Heyde → Mark Brink
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Ibrahim Adel → Prince Amoako Junior
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Alexander Lind
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Jacob Ambaek
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Mark Brink
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
43'
Event
Ben Godfrey
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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